Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Pivotal Kuchera, Weatherbell Kuchera or both? Still, not as widespread of an event as other 12z runs.WeatherBell.In this pattern with higher ratios regularly, I’m not shying away from it as much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: I like this look. Would be nice if those of us further north finally got in the action. Someone said golden area was north of I-80, but it's especially been good the past two weeks between I-90 and I-80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 yeah ratio skepticism generally feels misplaced 12z euro has an evolution similar to the rest of the 12z guidance, given how well a tenth or so of liquid has been fluffing up, i'll take my chances here and mourn the big dog in the med range thread obv riding the ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: yeah ratio skepticism generally feels misplaced 12z euro has an evolution similar to the rest of the 12z guidance, given how well a tenth or so of liquid has been fluffing up, i'll take my chances here and mourn the big dog in the med range thread obv riding the ukmet Very high ratios become possible with temps in the teens, but it depends on way more variables than just surface temperature. Lake influence almost always fluffs up totals. Pure synoptic events tend to be denser most of the time, but sometimes really good dendrite growth conditions happen in a band and you get something like last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I feel like it's best to take ratios on a case by case basis. Being locked in a cold pattern doesn't guarantee great ratios every time. It was only 3 days ago that a system generally underperformed on ratios. Yesterday's snow had outstanding ratios, but you probably wouldn't want to bet on 30:1 or 40:1 or better happening over and over. Even 15:1-20:1 would be nice though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 EPS looks great for Fri-Sat. Made some positive changes similar to the op run. Looking at some of WPC’s cluster products, a lot of the sensitivity is tied to how and when the PV heads East and resultant heights in the NE (overall the 12Z EPS is slower w ejecting it). Also some timing issues w Pacific energy as usual. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The threat of a major snowstorm/blizzard in the lakes has risen since last night. The ducks are on the pond. Up to the sampling with the s/w most likely. best in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Gonna need to change your name to "Happysummons" soon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The threat of a major snowstorm/blizzard in the lakes has risen since last night. The ducks are on the pond. Up to the sampling with the s/w most likely. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 burning out my meme too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 KLOT update (not Ricky) unimpressed. But the combo of Angrysummons and A-L-E-K will be hard to keep down. Thursday through Tuesday... Continued cold conditions are expected through the remainder of the forecast period, including a reinforcing shot of even colder air for the late weekend into early next week. Multiple periods of snow also remain likely, though different portions of the forecast area are favored with each one, and nothing looks overly significant at least into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I trust this guy more. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 para back running and has a v progressive dry look overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 para back running and has a v progressive dry look overalleasy toss.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 RGEM at end of run is actually already in range, and is in agreement with other 12z guidance.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 gfs gonna be bad 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 gfs gonna be badstill 6”.your views have been pretty off lately.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs gonna be bad You can gladly send that bad my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ALEK wants that big dawg badly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I would be very happy with 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs gonna be bad 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: 33% chance. Still low, but GEFS/EPS gave a bit more support. Chicago would be in for 10-14 inches and 50 mile hour gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Next week is mine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Next week is mine Is that like the "free beer tomorrow" signs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'll donate a finger to get GEFS ENS #17 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I'm hoping to be on the Long Term desk tomorrow. The more I look, the more I like Friday-Saturday. Reminds me of the fronto setups from NYE 2013 through Jan 5 2014. Somewhere in the CWA (north of 80 currently most favored) gonna start snowing Friday afternoon and not stop until Saturday evening. I'd be shocked if we don't need a headline for the period and think it's already greater than 50/50 part of the CWA will end up needing a warning. Blowing and drifting snow impacts later in the event could rival the night of Jan 5 2014 given the deep snowpack and very powdery top layers and surge of unmodified CAA with 850s crashing to low-mid -20s C. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Best in the game^ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 26 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I'm hoping to be on the Long Term desk tomorrow. The more I look, the more I like Friday-Saturday. Reminds me of the fronto setups from NYE 2013 through Jan 5 2014. Somewhere in the CWA (north of 80 currently most favored) gonna start snowing Friday afternoon and not stop until Saturday evening. I'd be shocked if we don't need a headline for the period and think it's already greater than 50/50 part of the CWA will end up needing a warning. Blowing and drifting snow impacts later in the event could rival the night of Jan 5 2014 given the deep snowpack and very powdery top layers and surge of unmodified CAA with 850s crashing to low-mid -20s C. WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 44 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I'm hoping to be on the Long Term desk tomorrow. The more I look, the more I like Friday-Saturday. Reminds me of the fronto setups from NYE 2013 through Jan 5 2014. Somewhere in the CWA (north of 80 currently most favored) gonna start snowing Friday afternoon and not stop until Saturday evening. I'd be shocked if we don't need a headline for the period and think it's already greater than 50/50 part of the CWA will end up needing a warning. Blowing and drifting snow impacts later in the event could rival the night of Jan 5 2014 given the deep snowpack and very powdery top layers and surge of unmodified CAA with 850s crashing to low-mid -20s C. Flying out Saturday AM. Bound to screw up the flight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 48 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I'm hoping to be on the Long Term desk tomorrow. The more I look, the more I like Friday-Saturday. Reminds me of the fronto setups from NYE 2013 through Jan 5 2014. Somewhere in the CWA (north of 80 currently most favored) gonna start snowing Friday afternoon and not stop until Saturday evening. I'd be shocked if we don't need a headline for the period and think it's already greater than 50/50 part of the CWA will end up needing a warning. Blowing and drifting snow impacts later in the event could rival the night of Jan 5 2014 given the deep snowpack and very powdery top layers and surge of unmodified CAA with 850s crashing to low-mid -20s C. So what you’re saying is I’ll likely have to prepare for Metra delays coming from Boone County to Jefferson Park on Saturday evening? The snow loving part of me is all reading those thoughts, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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