Feb 9th Snow Obs/Nowcast

[DavisStraight]

44 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Oh no no, there’s still There.  Last weeks debacle will leave a mark forever, and One NEVER seen a radar where a Storm is coming from the West, and it’s snowing EVERYWHERE but On me, and to the West of me.  

It happened a few years ago too, I remember you bitching about it, it happens.

[wx2fish]

Finished with 2.3" 

[dendrite]

2.3”/0.16” final. 

[OceanStWx]

Snowglobed my way to 1.2" today. 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

It hasn’t rained up here since the Grinch Storm I think, at least at elevation.  We had that one wet snow event that was paste above 1,000ft and white rain (but always wet flakes) below in January.  But this 4+ week run without rain or even much above freezing at all has been very fun.  Will have to check the stats on the temps though.

I don't think I have been above freezing since Grinch aside from a couple very brief spells. Looks like the warmest was mid-30s for a few hours before the mid-January storm.

I haven't had any rain since Grinch either.

It hasn't been all that cold, but cold enough to keep the pack. I just wish we could get a better shot of precip up here. Hopefully soon.

[Fozz]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It hasn’t rained up here since the Grinch Storm I think, at least at elevation.  We had that one wet snow event that was paste above 1,000ft and white rain (but always wet flakes) below in January.  But this 4+ week run without rain or even much above freezing at all has been very fun.  Will have to check the stats on the temps though.

And it looks to continue to for many more weeks to come.

I'm planning to head up to VT this weekend, pending my COVID test result.

[TheSnowman]

4 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

It happened a few years ago too, I remember you bitching about it, it happens.

Oh that’s the Fujiwawa 2013.  And that’s a WoooooooooooooooOOOOOle different story.  And I deserve to complain about that until Hell Freezes over.  The 24” region just to my West, 24” region just to my North and 24” region just my East.  Even though it snowed Over me.  Meanwhile central RI got 3”.  I STILL haven’t heard an explanation.  

[ineedsnow]

26 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Oh that’s the Fujiwawa 2013.  And that’s a WoooooooooooooooOOOOOle different story.  And I deserve to complain about that until Hell Freezes over.  The 24” region just to my West, 24” region just to my North and 24” region just my East.  Even though it snowed Over me.  Meanwhile central RI got 3”.  I STILL haven’t heard an explanation.  

The snow gods heard you complaining about every storm so they figured if they had to listen to it mine as well make it a epic one? 

[NSwx]

I ended up with almost 7 inches from this little bugger here on the very southern tip of Nova Scotia. EC was only forecasting a couple inches at most. Oops lol  One of the best packs here in several years 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

Oh that’s the Fujiwawa 2013.  And that’s a WoooooooooooooooOOOOOle different story.  And I deserve to complain about that until Hell Freezes over.  The 24” region just to my West, 24” region just to my North and 24” region just my East.  Even though it snowed Over me.  Meanwhile central RI got 3”.  I STILL haven’t heard an explanation.  

We discussed it in full. Standing wave. 

[512high]

7F/ ended up with 2/2.5" last 4 hours of the storm, seemed all at rush hour.....really feels and looks like winter ! If the 14th event is nickels and dimes, I will take, building the snow pack up, better then no snow

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It hasn’t rained up here since the Grinch Storm I think, at least at elevation.  We had that one wet snow event that was paste above 1,000ft and white rain (but always wet flakes) below in January.  But this 4+ week run without rain or even much above freezing at all has been very fun.  Will have to check the stats on the temps though.

We had about 0.3" RA at the end of the Jan. 16 storm (Most while I was clearing the slop from the driveway) but that's all since the Grinch.  It's popped a few degrees above 32 several times but our last 40+ was in the wee hours of 12/26 as temps coasted down from the Christmas torch.

Finished at 0.9" from 0.07" LE, about what was forecast.  17" pack is 2" BN for the date; 43.4" total snow is about 10" BN.

[HalloweenGale]

6 hours ago, NSwx said:

I ended up with almost 7 inches from this little bugger here on the very southern tip of Nova Scotia. EC was only forecasting a couple inches at most. Oops lol  One of the best packs here in several years 

How'd Yarmouth do?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gave this one a "D". Should have went with my instinct on First Call.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/february-9-snowfall-verification.html

 

February 9 Snowfall Verification: Meteorology vs "Modelology" 

The Role of the Forecaster

Contemporary forecasting models are undoubtedly more skilled than ever before, and accordingly play a large role in the in the development of forecasts. However, there is a reason that they are referred to as "guidance". After all, if they were flawless, then there would be no need for meteorologists. Thus it is incumbent upon the forecaster to utilize discretion when incorporating this data into a forecast. The primary role of the forecaster is to utilize a blend of a foundational understanding of how the atmosphere operates, a knowledge of climatology and forecasting experiences to distinguish when said guidance is accurately, and when it is in error. Sometimes it is important for the forecaster to resist the innate urge to relay on this guidance, instead deferring to a visceral, "gut" instinct that is incongruent with the data.

This poor forecast was a splendid illustration of this.

 

Here is the snowfall from yesterday across the region:

 

 

 

The prevailing thought process that guided the First Call was that snowfall would be light, due to very meager frontogenesis and OMEGA (lift), which obviously ended up very close to reality.

 

 

 

 

 

However, guidance inexplicably became more aggressive in terms of snowfall during the day on Monday, thus the Final Call was begrudgingly adjusted accordingly, against better judgement.

This was obviously too aggressive, and thus a bad forecast that resulted from the over reliance upon guidance.

 

 

 

 

The lesson here is practice meteorology, not "modelology". 

Learn to trust your instinct as a forecaster-

 

Final Grade: D

 

Perhaps the saving grace is that the pattern over the course of the next week looks likely to provide ample opportunity for redemption.

[The 4 Seasons]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gave this one a "D". Should have went with my instinct on First Call.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/february-9-snowfall-verification.html

 

February 9 Snowfall Verification: Meteorology vs "Modelology" 

The Role of the Forecaster

Contemporary forecasting models are undoubtedly more skilled than ever before, and accordingly play a large role in the in the development of forecasts. However, there is a reason that they are referred to as "guidance". After all, if they were flawless, then there would be no need for meteorologists. Thus it is incumbent upon the forecaster to utilize discretion when incorporating this data into a forecast. The primary role of the forecaster is to utilize a blend of a foundational understanding of how the atmosphere operates, a knowledge of climatology and forecasting experiences to distinguish when said guidance is accurately, and when it is in error. Sometimes it is important for the forecaster to resist the innate urge to relay on this guidance, instead deferring to a visceral, "gut" instinct that is incongruent with the data.

This poor forecast was a splendid illustration of this.

 

Here is the snowfall from yesterday across the region:

 

 

 

The prevailing thought process that guided the First Call was that snowfall would be light, due to very meager frontogenesis and OMEGA (lift), which obviously ended up very close to reality.

 

 

 

 

 

However, guidance inexplicably became more aggressive in terms of snowfall during the day on Monday, thus the Final Call was begrudgingly adjusted accordingly, against better judgement.

This was obviously too aggressive, and thus a bad forecast that resulted from the over reliance upon guidance.

 

 

 

 

The lesson here is practice meteorology, not "modelology". 

Learn to trust your instinct as a forecaster-

 

Final Grade: D

 

Perhaps the saving grace is that the pattern over the course of the next week looks likely to provide ample opportunity for redemption.

your first call would have probably been a solid B. I hate when that happens

[The 4 Seasons]

Snowfall totals from the Feb 9th 2021 light snow event. Our first call was pretty bullish. However, after looking at the evening 00Z suite and really diving into this i could see where it was heading. Lift in the dgz was atrocious coupled with possible warming in S CT, i figured it would be hard to pull more than 1-2 for most of the southern 4 counties. I was even considering going C-1 along the shore but held back on that and just pushed the line Nwd and shaved an inch off going from 1-3-->1-2 and 3-6--->2-5. 

Positives

• 1-2" verified for a good chunk of the southern 4 counties away from the shore and SE CT
• All of Litchfield and northern Fairfield/HFD counties fell within the 2-5" range though it was on the lower end, used a range of 2-4
• Highest totals were as noted in Northern Litchfield CNTY
• The change to mix (freezing drizzle) happened along the shore and a bit inland

Negatives

• 2-5" range busted in Northern and NE CT with amounts in the 1-2 range
• <1" for the immediate shore and SE CT was forecasted as 1-2"
• Highest totals were confined to the hills of Litchfield but did not include Tolland county

Grade: C+

First call

[NSwx]

On 2/10/2021 at 12:22 PM, HalloweenGale said:

How'd Yarmouth do?

Not as much I don’t think, very localized to the Cape sable island area for the most part.