Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The "bite mark" shape on the euro qpf panel across NMD is a pretty typical signature of confluence/dry air winning the battle on the periphery. Haven't looked close but I've seen that before. Psu doesnt like those. Doubt it will be a problem anywhere in our sub though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: 18z vs 12z Now that looks more reasonable. Not amounts but position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro took 2 inches of digital snow away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I know the euro doesn’t go far enough out but what would extrapolate for Friday based upon its look at 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO Do you have surface temps? I imagine they’re pretty cold given the orientation of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Is there significant ice on the 18z euro in the Richmond Metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 It did move the one inch contour 20 or 30 miles south. But still a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I know the euro doesn’t go far enough out but what would extrapolate for Friday based upon its look at 90? This is what it looked like at the end. Maybe another inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 18z vs 12z Leesburg lost about 2-3" but Sykesville stayed about the same maybe a tad more. I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Do you have surface temps? I imagine they’re pretty cold given the orientation of precip. For the follow up wave, starts in the upper 20s and is in the mid 20s at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: This is what it looked like at the end. Maybe another inch or two. 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Maybe an inch more?, particularly as you move further east So just sliding out and no north movement. When I looked at the gfs and ICON I thought I detected a little north movement to the system on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z continued the trend of a weaker wave 1 for a more consolidated wave 2. Not able to post pics right this instant but (speaking for DC), wave 1 dropped .2” less, but the costal dropped .1-.2” more through hr 90. Seems like the storm is beginning to appear more consolidated on the models. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I know the euro doesn’t go far enough out but what would extrapolate for Friday based upon its look at 90? It’s over at 90. If you look at the 1 hour precip it’s moving off the coast by then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 EPS follows the op. Weaker wave 1 and further north wave two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: EPS follows the op. Weaker wave 1 and further north wave two. Slight decrease overall because the losses from wave 1 slightly offset the gains from wave 2. Wave 2 is the potentially more dynamic and fun but wave 1 was closer. Whatever. There isn’t much separation between the two anymore either. There is really no lull anymore. Just a long fetch it weak WAA precip ahead of the main wave (2nd) now. The first wave isn’t even a distinct entity anymore imo. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Slight decrease overall because the losses from wave 1 slightly offset the gains from wave 2. Wave 2 is the potentially more dynamic and fun but wave 1 was closer. Whatever. There isn’t much separation between the two anymore either. There is really no lull anymore. Just a long fetch it weak WAA precip ahead of the main wave (2nd) now. The first wave isn’t even a distinct entity anymore imo. Maybe it’s because of recent bias, but this seems like the easiest setup for us to have a solid clean score. Cold air in place, precip with gulf origins. We don’t need a messy transfer or TPV lobe. I think we do well with this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Slight decrease overall because the losses from wave 1 slightly offset the gains from wave 2. Wave 2 is the potentially more dynamic and fun but wave 1 was closer. Whatever. There isn’t much separation between the two anymore either. There is really no lull anymore. Just a long fetch it weak WAA precip ahead of the main wave (2nd) now. The first wave isn’t even a distinct entity anymore imo. First wave is interesting it's an almost indiscernible impulse ejecting out of the desert sw and zipping along with the jet across the country waaay out in front of the digging shortwave. Normally things like that don't even cause precip here but the lucky connection with the gulf and bouncing up againt cold air makes it an event anyway. Sometimes it just wants to snow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: First wave is interesting it's an almost indiscernible impulse ejecting out of the desert sw and zipping along with the jet across the country waaay out in front of the digging shortwave. Normally things like that don't even cause precip here but the lucky connection with the gulf and bouncing up againt cold air makes it an event anyway. Sometimes it just wants to snow. Most favorite quote from you in the 2013 - 2014 epic year was that if the atmosphere farted, we got snow! I still laugh at that!! Some similarities, in a way, to what we are seeing in this stretch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The progressive Navgem fwiw is more amped for Thurs/fri then other guidance. I love how people always point out that the Navgem is progressive everytime its mentioned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 0z HRRR looks pretty paltry with the first wave. But way out there for that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The progressive Navgem fwiw is more amped for Thurs/fri then other guidance. I love how people always point out that the Navgem is progressive everytime its mentioned This forum would be better off if someone spilled a gallon of seawater on the navgem's motherboard 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM much colder this run. 850 line down to the VA/NC border at 12z Wednesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM much colder this run. 850 line down to the VA/NC border at 12z Wednesday. Also more juiced with the wave to the west. Rare combo 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Nice hit from 51-54 NOVA/DC. Virtually nothing south of that so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Nice hit from 51-54 NOVA/DC. Virtually nothing south of that so far though. Seems everything shifted north. Mix line is on the dooratep here in Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 So much for a dry first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hagerstown crushed at 60. My area kind of gets screwed with light rates so far this run. 69-72 DC south in the good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Seems everything shifted north. Mix line is on the dooratep here in Loudoun It’s a nice run so far if you are in DC or anywhere north. More amplified so more precip and from DC north is cold enough. It’s not like 12z that blasted the 850s way north. But south of DC has mixing issues so not as good there. Anyone south of DC needs to root for a weaker wave to have a shot. More amplified probably pushed the boundary north of them. But they could still score Friday depending what happens with the trailing energy. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hagerstown crushed at 60. My area kind of gets screwed with light rates so far this run. Temps in the low 30's. Glad it's falling at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I like this NAM run. R/S line down in Salisbury the whole time 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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