Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Seems like a good forecast based on climo for something like this, even if there is some potential for better totals for DC and south. That actually just seems to be from wave 1. A decent slug of precip/snow falls (at least according to the GFS/Euro) after 0z Friday, and that runs up until 7pm Thursday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: Hadn't seen this posted yet in this thread. Apologies if I missed it and this is a duplicate. And that’s only through Thursday evening 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out! I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet af. 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out! I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet. Uhhhh, not sure anyone would necessarily want to do what @ravensrule would do!! LOL!!! But more seriously and weather-related...gotta love that essentially every model is now looking pretty good for Wed night-Thurs and Thurs night-Fri. Not too bad a place to be situated at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out! I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet. I would actually drill deep into each model to make sure they were spitting out the correct information. 1 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Cobalt said: That actually just seems to be from wave 1. A decent slug of precip/snow falls (at least according to the GFS/Euro) after 0z Friday, and that runs up until 7pm Thursday. True, probably smart of them to give it some time to figure out totals for that while the models bicker about whether that second bit is south or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 HH GFS Ensembles? Anyone got maps? Yep.. I am in a meeting! LOL! Where is the Bingo card on this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: HH GFS Ensembles? Anyone got maps? Yep.. I am in a meeting! LOL! Where is the Bingo card on this event? The totals in PA include some snow from Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Waaay too much sweating over 13 mile shifts and uneven qpf distribution. Save that stuff for when it really matters. Like 0z tomorrow. If your yard is still inside of the general idea, you should be elated really. yeah but Bob.. this winter has been really tough WRT what the models have shown around 48-72 hours out and what has actually happened. A lot of people only lucked in to 6 inches last week because they got under a nice band at the very end. Its been quite the bait and switch for us recently... so I dont blame people for panic over shifts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The totals in PA include some snow from Tuesday. that mean is well north of the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said: yeah but Bob.. this winter has been really tough WRT what the models have shown around 48-72 hours out and what has actually happened. A lot of people only lucked in to 6 inches last week because they got under a nice band at the very end. Its been quite the bait and switch for us recently... so I dont blame people for panic over shifts What you are saying supports my post even more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Waaay too much sweating over 13 mile shifts and uneven qpf distribution. Save that stuff for when it really matters. Like 0z tomorrow. If your yard is still inside of the general idea, you should be elated really. This forum is amazing. And not in a good way sometimes. I missed the GFS pbp thank God. But yeah, what you said 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Hey guys, just a reminder, keep the banter out of the thread. Starting 0z tonight, there will be zero tolerance for it. Hate to be the buzzkill, but it's already starting to get sloppy in here. 13 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z Euro - our wednesday storm take a little longer to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 18z Euro - our wednesday storm take a little longer to materialize. Until Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Through Thursday afternoon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Through Thursday afternoon Hope we got more coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 There's really not much downtime, and the 2nd wave looks stronger and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Hope we got more coming There is a brief lull likely....not sure the best way to characterize the parts of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Through Thursday afternoon That looks way south. I see places in Ky near a foot of snow where 12z showed nothing there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Mod snow moving back in Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hope we got more coming Looks like we do on Thursday evening. Looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: There is a brief lull likely....not sure the best way to characterize the parts of the system The Thursday night batch catches us up. Run truncates...based on 12z, we may add another 1-2" on top of this 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Stronger follow up wave. Heavies moving in just south of town by 8-9 pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 impulse/wave setups running boundaries/fronts are tough to model. Even close in. We've seen more than a few morph multiple times 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Still snowing a little when the run ended. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The Thursday night batch catches us up. Run truncates...based on 12z, we may add another 1-2" on top of this So it would seem the 2nd wave is looking like the more significant one, or that seems to have been the trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: 2 impulse/wave setups running boundaries/fronts are tough to model. Even close in. We've seen more than a few morph multiple times The euro loves long events, but they usually consolidate to some extent. We may see this one congeal even more. You just don't want the first wave to fizzle out and then the 2nd go too far south. But in terms of overall potential, it's probably better to roll the dice and not book as much snow on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 WB 18Z EURO 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The Thursday night batch catches us up. Run truncates...based on 12z, we may add another 1-2" on top of this Euro staying South GFS on the North side...that's not a bad thing I don't think...better than having everything going in one direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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