Kleimax Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Great run for Baltimore. Lock it in 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Somebody will like the appendage on the 18z GFS. Not me, though. Looks good to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Kleimax said: Great run for Baltimore. Lock it in I'll definitely take my foot plus. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, chris21 said: Lol! Def would if the gfs depiction comes to fruition. EC/Canadian/rgem have temps in the mid 20s in the metro on Thursday. As mentioned in reply to a similar post, the temps wouldn't be the issue. We wouldn't get that QPF stack in that scenario. It was too light around our area and the GFS operational can't depict subsidence. Again, it was another massive improvement though so overall very happy with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: The temps won't be the issue this time. We wouldn't get under the bands necessary to get to those levels. In reality it would be spotty and riddled with subsidence. But it's just one run of one model that improved toward better guidance so I don't want to act like I'm bummed about it or 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Not for the Baltimore beltway. Not even for the northern half of the dc beltway... 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Too sleety here. not sure i buy it, it's the GFS's thermals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: As mentioned in reply to a similar post, the temps wouldn't be the issue. We wouldn't get that QPF stack in that scenario. It was too light around our area and the GFS operational can't depict subsidence. Again, it was another massive improvement though so overall very happy with this run. This is more of an overrunning situation, not like the previous two storms where intense banding resulted in large areas of subsidence. Overrunning tends to be far more uniform. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: As mentioned in reply to a similar post, the temps wouldn't be the issue. We wouldn't get that QPF stack in that scenario. It was too light around our area and the GFS operational can't depict subsidence. Again, it was another massive improvement though so overall very happy with this run. I’m not disagreeing 100%, but part of your logic is off. A weaker wave that causes lighter Precip would also be accompanied by less SW flow. Temps almost across the board look upper 20’s at most. Decent rates at all and it accumulates most places. edit to also say what Chris said about the subsidence is partially true as well. More uniform areas of Precip are to be expected, even if the overall scheme isn’t terribly heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Lol. Waaay too much sweating over 13 mile shifts and uneven qpf distribution. Save that stuff for when it really matters. Like 0z tomorrow. If your yard is still inside of the general idea, you should be elated really. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, chris21 said: This is more of an overrunning situation, not like the previous two storms where intense banding resulted in large areas of subsidence. Overrunning tends to be far more uniform. That's true, but I don't think it's totally removed from that situation and even the model shows better lift to the north. I know I'm kind of contradicting myself there but I'm just going by experience. For example even if I lived in Ellicott City still I'd be much happier with that scenario verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: not sure i buy it, it's the GFS's thermals. I never said I buy it lol. Just commenting on what the run is depicting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Waaay too much sweating over 13 mile shifts and uneven qpf distribution. Save that stuff for when it really matters. Like 0z tomorrow. If your yard is still inside of the general idea, you should be elated really. For my part I'm just dissecting. Overall very happy with this run. Massive improvement every run since 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: For my part I'm just dissecting. Overall very happy with this run. Massive improvement every run since 0z. To the point where the GFS is now the snowiest model really. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, DDweatherman said: To the point where the GFS is now the snowiest model really. LOL. Euro is way snowier for the majority of the region. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Gotta love these northern Carroll county dudes though. They should have their own subforum. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Northern Shen Valley gets a foot regardless of the model at this point. Big differences NE and SE from there on the models. But regardless of the progression we get hit hard. Good place to be right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Gotta love these northern Carroll county dudes though. They should have their own subforum. Agreed 100% Or start posting more maps when doing pbp instead of saying this run sucks or is better etc due to their location... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looking icy for down here. This is going to be the one that knocks the power out... Or, the GFS is too warm and we get snow... Hopefully the latter. I want to go look at past ice storms that have happened in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Looking icy for down here. This is going to be the one that knocks the power out... Or, the GFS is too warm and we get snow... Hopefully the latter. I want to go look at past ice storms that have happened in the area. What’s your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The interesting part to me is that second wave continues to look like it’s strengthening. Noticed that on the icon as well. Yesterday that was dampening out in the Ohio valley and then giving us some light snow after. Now it looks to be strengthening before it moves toward us. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Also nice that the gfs is 42 straight hours of frozen precip. Didn’t pay attention to what the others were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: To the point where the GFS is now the snowiest model really. Not for our area...Also think the Euro is much snowier overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs is juicier for the cities Has been for a while. I'll take that any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Hadn't seen this posted yet in this thread. Apologies if I missed it and this is a duplicate. 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, catoctin wx said: Hadn't seen this posted yet in this thread. Apologies if I missed it and this is a duplicate. Seems like a good forecast based on climo for something like this, even if there is some potential for better totals for DC and south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Clueless said: What’s your location? RVA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Seems like a good forecast based on climo for something like this, even if there is some potential for better totals for DC and south. That actually just seems to be from wave 1. A decent slug of precip/snow falls (at least according to the GFS/Euro) after 0z Friday, and that runs up until 7pm Thursday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: Hadn't seen this posted yet in this thread. Apologies if I missed it and this is a duplicate. And that’s only through Thursday evening 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out! I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet af. 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out! I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet. Uhhhh, not sure anyone would necessarily want to do what @ravensrule would do!! LOL!!! But more seriously and weather-related...gotta love that essentially every model is now looking pretty good for Wed night-Thurs and Thurs night-Fri. Not too bad a place to be situated at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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