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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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  On 2/8/2021 at 9:27 PM, midatlanticweather said:

If my memory serves me (and it may not) waves like this are usually 3 to 5 inch events (higher in the higher spots).. So we get two, which would net 6 to 10 inches (maybe?).. I would think. A long while ago in the early 90s (yep..) I remember tracking one of something like this and it was a 3 to 6 inch event .. I was an intern at the Climate Analysis Center at the time... but it quickly moved through. So two, seems like a double of the same thing. On to the model analysis! 

 

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Jackpot of 10 seems pretty reasonable if you get something like the euro. Gut says somewhere in the latitudes between DC and Baltimore gets it.

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  On 2/8/2021 at 9:30 PM, baltosquid said:

Jackpot of 10 seems pretty reasonable if you get something like the euro. Gut says somewhere in the latitudes between DC and Baltimore gets it.

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This doesn't seem like a particularly juicy setup to me. If there are in fact 2 waves that hit the same area, then yeah maybe there will be some 8" amounts. Cant say I can recall seeing this happen before in a configuration like this(and be all snow), but certainly not impossible.

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  On 2/8/2021 at 9:40 PM, Cobalt said:

Ptype panels arent out yet on TT, but it looks like it's NW compared to 12z. Gets the immediate area into some precip at 84 but the run ends right there. Comparing hr 84 to 78 on 12z shows how the axis has shifted NW. 

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I saw this and verbatim it looks to favor the southern areas.  But you’re right that it is north of its prior run.

640993DC-08E4-44D1-86C3-DF6BE1D1FCFD.png

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  On 2/8/2021 at 9:27 PM, midatlanticweather said:

If my memory serves me (and it may not) waves like this are usually 3 to 5 inch events (higher in the higher spots).. So we get two, which would net 6 to 10 inches (maybe?).. I would think. A long while ago in the early 90s (yep..) I remember tracking one of something like this and it was a 3 to 6 inch event .. I was an intern at the Climate Analysis Center at the time... but it quickly moved through. So two, seems like a double of the same thing. On to the model analysis! 

 

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I remember a very similar situation in February 1996 if that’s what you’re referring to. I think @psuhoffman may have already mentioned it.

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  On 2/8/2021 at 10:03 PM, Wetbulbs88 said:

The lack of juice is a little meh. Over that long a timeframe it won't get the job done around metro areas. But big improvement. 

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Lol! Def would if the gfs depiction comes to fruition. EC/Canadian/rgem have temps in the mid 20s in the metro on Thursday.

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  On 2/8/2021 at 10:04 PM, DDweatherman said:

With temps under 30 it would. 

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The temps won't be the issue this time. We wouldn't get under the bands necessary to get to those levels. In reality it would be spotty and riddled with subsidence. But it's just one run of one model that improved toward better guidance so I don't want to act like I'm bummed about it or anything. 

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