February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

[Cobalt]

Just now, RockabilyJunior said:

Also February 2015. Snow was supposed to change over to sleet/rain, but it never really did. We got 10 inches in Baltimore instead of 3 or 4 forecast before hitting a dry slot with just some freezing drizzle after the changeover finally did happen.  

Yes, Feb 20-21 2015. One of my favorite storms as a young weenie. That was near the peak of our arctic blast, and so when precip arrived, temps were still in the mid teens for most across the area. Took a substantial amount of precip until it finally changed over, with 6"+ from IAD west, as well as a glacier on top of it. Pretty sure temps rocketed the day after, but the snowpack was encased pretty well. In fact some areas maintained that snowpack from then until after the March 5-6 snowstorm (another personal favorite). 

[ErinInTheSky]

50 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I'm numb to it now.  I never bought into this one knowing it would somehow fail.  I'm convinced we finish a second straight winter without a WSW level snow.  Trip to Dallas for their cold smoke snowstorm Monday with temps in the teen and 20s?  LOL

Me too haha. After the first two storms, I 100% expected this.

[Baltimorewx]

Well HRRR isnt trending towards disaster yet for north of DC lol...3" thru 5AM for Balt with some lollies of 5-6 near frederick and west with presumambly a couple more hrs of precip to go

[The Ole Bucket]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yes, Feb 20-21 2015. One of my favorite storms as a young weenie. That was near the peak of our arctic blast, and so when precip arrived, temps were still in the mid teens for most across the area. Took a substantial amount of precip until it finally changed over, with 6"+ from IAD west, as well as a glacier on top of it. Pretty sure temps rocketed the day after, but the snowpack was encased pretty well. In fact some areas maintained that snowpack from then until after the March 5-6 snowstorm (another personal favorite). 

That was a VERY memorable February. One of the few times I remember seeing a negative air temperature around here. And Alaska was very warm.

[bigsnowdog]

15 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

in my opinion no..it hasnt only trended south, its also a weak piece of crap generally now..There just no spacing for it to really develop anymore between this wave and then saturday

Bummer. -Little Snow Dog

[Ji]

euro shows mixed precip for the first time since we started tracking this storm....on the day of the storm...wow

[North Balti Zen]

38/26 in my part of Balt City. Glancing at radar, trajectory looks...decent (for DC north folks) for where precip is currently occurring?

[snowfan]

Thru 7a tmrw. Short pump screwed.

 

[Baltimorewx]

Just now, snowfan said:

Thru 7a tmrw

 

Will take for sure...if i can just get that .6 to turn into 4" of snow ill be happy enough

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro shows mixed precip for the first time since we started tracking this storm....on the day of the storm...wow

Euro caving to the NAM again.  When did the NAM become so good?  Was it always this good and we just ignored it?

[Baltimorewx]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro caving to the NAM again.  When did the NAM become so good?  Was it always this good and we just ignored it?

Maybe its better in a la nina winter when everything seems to trend warmer and/or north in the last 24 hours lol.  It was always usually too amped and wet from what I remember but I guess maybe its corrected some of that

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Maybe its better in a la nina winter when everything seems to trend warmer and/or north in the last 24 hours lol.  It was always usually too amped and wet from what I remember but I guess maybe its corrected some of that

Just going off memory here, could be wrong, but I think this is the third event in a row where it's had the right idea first for our area. 

[hobbes9]

Euro complete whiff on Wave 2 for EZF and north...

[WxUSAF]

925 and 850 stay below zero in DC going by the 6hr panels at least. Maybe it sneaks warmer near 8-9z when the NAM and RGEM had the mix line reach its northernmost point, but I can’t tell. Solid euro run for MD. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro shows mixed precip for the first time since we started tracking this storm....on the day of the storm...wow

It's late to that game.

[psuhoffman]

Hopefully Baltimore breaks it’s jinx with this one 

[EastCoast NPZ]

38 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

42 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

12 GFS Cobb data for first wave:

DCA:

210211/0100Z  13  11006KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   75|  0| 25
210211/0200Z  14  12005KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03   71|  0| 29
210211/0300Z  15  12007KT  33.3F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   49| 23| 28
210211/0400Z  16  12004KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06   45|  0| 55
210211/0500Z  17  14005KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10   37|  0| 63
210211/0600Z  18  15007KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0700Z  19  16006KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|100
210211/0800Z  20  16005KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16    0|  0|100
210211/0900Z  21  16003KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|  0|100
210211/1000Z  22  VRB02KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21    0|  0|100
210211/1100Z  23  VRB00KT  34.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21    0|  0|100

BWI:

210211/0100Z  13  09005KT  31.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
210211/0200Z  14  08006KT  31.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    6:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
210211/0300Z  15  09007KT  30.8F  SNOW   12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032    9:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
210211/0400Z  16  09007KT  31.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    8:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
210211/0500Z  17  11007KT  31.7F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    7:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
210211/0600Z  18  12008KT  31.9F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    7:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0700Z  19  11007KT  32.1F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.030    6:1|  1.4|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.22   85| 15|  0
210211/0800Z  20  12005KT  31.9F SNZRPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.01|| 0.029    6:1|  1.4|| 0.04|| 0.01|| 0.25   22| 30| 48
210211/0900Z  21  11003KT  32.1F  SNOW   12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    7:1|  1.7|| 0.04|| 0.01|| 0.28  100|  0|  0
210211/1000Z  22  08004KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    7:1|  1.7|| 0.04|| 0.01|| 0.32    0|  0|100
210211/1100Z  23  03003KT  32.1F SNZRPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.013    7:1|  1.7|| 0.06|| 0.01|| 0.34   46| 25| 29
210211/1200Z  24  03005KT  30.6F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.006    7:1|  1.7|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.34   27| 73|  0

IAD:

210210/2300Z  11  13004KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   59|  0| 41
210211/0000Z  12  15006KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05   57|  0| 43
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0100Z  13  13006KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08   74|  0| 26
210211/0200Z  14  12007KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09   74|  0| 26
210211/0300Z  15  13008KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12   73|  0| 27
210211/0400Z  16  14007KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18   81|  0| 19
210211/0500Z  17  15007KT  33.5F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20   25| 58| 17
210211/0600Z  18  16007KT  33.9F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23    2| 50| 48
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0700Z  19  16006KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26    0|  0|100
210211/0800Z  20  16006KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29    0|  0|100
210211/0900Z  21  19004KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31    0|  0|100
210211/1000Z  22  VRB02KT  34.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31    0|  0|  0
210211/1100Z  23  VRB02KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32    0|  0|100

That is some arctic rain right there!

[wawarriors4]

EZF is the center of the screw zone on the EURO....

[H2O]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

925 and 850 stay below zero in DC going by the 6hr panels at least. Maybe it sneaks warmer near 8-9z when the NAM and RGEM had the mix line reach its northernmost point, but I can’t tell. Solid euro run for MD. 

Boy that south trend really hurt MD

[Wetbulbs88]

51 minutes ago, ge0 said:

have we ever busted high? I can't remember the last time. 2009 maybe?

2010 with the last blizzard is the last I can remember for this area. For me, there was a really nice surprise in New York on November 15, 2018. But yeah busting low or totally is usually the way. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Boy that south trend really hurt MD

Your snow was supposed to come mostly from the 2nd wave which got suppressed too far south. 

[Heisy]

3 minutes ago, hobbes9 said:

Euro complete whiff on Wave 2 for EZF and north...

Goes with the old saying, Stronger wave 1 weaker wave 2, vice versa. What a joke the euro is right now. 

[H2O]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Your snow was supposed to come mostly from the 2nd wave which got suppressed too far south. 

I was going to get snow from both.  The second was icing on the cake.  But thanks.  

[ovechkin]

42 and partly sunny.Not a snowball’s chance in DC proper does wave 2 come north. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I was going to get snow from both.  The second was icing on the cake.  But thanks.  

On the euro but I kinda thought it was off it’s rocker from the beginning. I think the gfs and NAM was always indicating problems with the first wave. But I thought the second would get you as the cold pressed. Ended up pressing too much and squashed it. 

[Wetbulbs88]

8 minutes ago, hobbes9 said:

Euro complete whiff on Wave 2 for EZF and north...

Wow. Just wow. Definitely one of the biggest model fails I've seen since boxing day 2011, in terms of trajectory whiffs. 

I swear the models used to be better than this. 

[mappy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

On the euro but I kinda thought it was off it’s rocker from the beginning. I think the gfs and NAM was always indicating problems with the first wave. But I thought the second would get you as the cold pressed. Ended up pressing too much and squashed it. 

lol just stop already.

[Baltimorewx]

Just updated my snow plow contract guy...My thoughts are 2-4" for metro Baltimore, Potential for 5-6" especially just north of the city along a line from Frederick-Westminster-Hunt Valley-Bel Air..mainly from 10PM-8AM...thats my story and Im sticking to it!

[dallen7908]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

925 and 850 stay below zero in DC going by the 6hr panels at least. Maybe it sneaks warmer near 8-9z when the NAM and RGEM had the mix line reach its northernmost point, but I can’t tell. Solid euro run for MD. 

For DC, the "always reliable" precip type indicator shows snow beginning just before 00 UT with mixing near DC from 7-11 UT. 

[snowfan]

If the euro is going to bust at this range, then you gotta throw your hands in the air. We’re, what, 7 hours from this starting?