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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:12 PM, King George Dee said:

Hey remember we are not all as far north as you...What's happening in Fredericksburg, VA area?  

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My unqualified opinion: Central VA is toast for wave one. I think we've still got a shot at wave two, but we need to root for the typical north trend. I'd be pretty shocked to get totally blanked, but its in the cards. 1-3" from wave two seems like a decently safe bet.

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  On 2/10/2021 at 3:48 PM, Warm Nose said:

Cue the inevitable bashing of the models since they weren't verbatim and trends went the wrong way for this sub ...

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Verbatim? They might as well have been labeling the states wrong. This is a massive failure, and many consecutive days of failure at that. 
 

edit: username checks out though. 

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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:12 PM, King George Dee said:

Hey remember we are not all as far north as you...What's happening in Fredericksburg, VA area?  

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Unfortunately you're in that "in between suck zone" where it might be too warm for wave 1 and wave 2 looks iffy.  Honestly though I wouldn't give up on wave 2...you might score some snow down there.

weather_2.10.2020.png

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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:09 PM, WxUSAF said:

I mean, precip starts in the western area by afternoon. Ok, let’s wait for the euro to fold like a cheap suit.

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I say you pull a Leroy Jenkins and start the Obs.. if the Euro tries to throw us something, we can share it there.. but the writing is clear! And we will be seeing echoes soon!!

 

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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:12 PM, King George Dee said:

Hey remember we are not all as far north as you...What's happening in Fredericksburg, VA area?  

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If you read back through the thread - it has been covered, I think. Summed up, a few days ago your area looked great as the Euro and a few others were showing it south of DC. DT put out  a map that had you at edge of 10" countour. Since then, it appears to have shifted north with wave 1 and your area hoping to catch some of wave 2 (Thursday night into Friday). I don't know latest on sensible expectations for your area for accumulations from the two systems, but probably not what DT was showing 24 hours ago. 

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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:08 PM, clskinsfan said:

I am going to the beach permanently very soon. This hobby is going to give me a heart attack. At least there I wont really have to ever track anymore. :)

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I went sleigh riding down the steps of the Hilton on 32 street a few years ago!  Maybe you will have better luck down there :)

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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:21 PM, North Balti Zen said:

If you read back through the thread - it has been covered, I think. Summed up, a few days ago your area looked great as the Euro and a few others were showing it south of DC. DT put out  a map that had you at edge of 10" countour. Since then, it appears to have shifted north with wave 1 and your area hoping to catch some of wave 2 (Thursday night into Friday). I don't know latest on sensible expectations for your area for accumulations from the two systems, but probably not what DT was showing 24 hours ago. 

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To be fair the reality is rarely if ever what DT was showing 24 hours ago. 

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        I wouldn't recommend hanging my hat on the GFS para snow maps.     Maybe it's right that it will snow in DC (although there seems to be a consensus for sleet turning to rain), but it keeps the surface at 34/35.     That's not going to get the job done for accumulations, even at night.

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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:32 PM, high risk said:

        I wouldn't recommend hanging my hat on the GFS para snow maps.     Maybe it's right that it will snow in DC (although there seems to be a consensus for sleet turning to rain), but it keeps the surface at 34/35.     That's not going to get the job done for accumulations, even at night.

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The snow map is def wonky. I’m seeing temps on the para of about 32-33 in the northern half of the district at least. Hoping that that might be at least good for 1-2 inches of snow/sleet.

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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:35 PM, Wetbulbs88 said:

For the first time this year I’m actually pretty bummed. This was an epic rug pull. I mean just a few hours out...man this one hurts. 

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I'm numb to it now.  I never bought into this one knowing it would somehow fail.  I'm convinced we finish a second straight winter without a WSW level snow.  Trip to Dallas for their cold smoke snowstorm Monday with temps in the teen and 20s?  LOL

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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:35 PM, Wetbulbs88 said:

For the first time this year I’m actually pretty bummed. This was an epic rug pull. I mean just a few hours out...man this one hurts. 

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Storm hasn't even started yet.. let's just see where the chips fall. We should always have our expectations in check in our region.

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  On 2/10/2021 at 4:42 PM, ravensrule said:

Unfortunately we will probably also get screwed but it's nice to see until we get screwed and PSU and Mappy get 6"

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My bar honestly is 2" and I THINK its pretty attainable...of course the pavement will likely struggle more in my area but thats per usual.  If I can get 3-5" Ill be pumped...and not short pumped either

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