real Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Spring is coming but we need a few more big hits before that happens. Going to be hard to keep people in DC and NOVA invested in this winter much longer.. This was supposed to be the one storm that was A) Easy to track. B ) Overrunning and hard to miss us C ) Cold and all snow D) Depending on model runs, wedged between jackpot just north or a jackpot just south, so in a good position. Yet, it looks like we are going to still fail. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowfan said: Lol. Been awhile since we've seen one of those bad maps I really love the invisible barrier otherwise known as the Mason Dixon Line which seems to depict a massive cold air dam..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This will be the new "how much for philly" How much for short pump? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Okay I don’t post much . is it correct I don’t know or care. I am just tracking the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Really amazing how the Euro just completely blew this from 3-4 days out. There was little to no 850 push on the Euro as of a few days ago. The GFS and the longer range NAM had it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, toolsheds said: I really love the invisible barrier otherwise known as the Mason Dixon Line which seems to depict a massive cold air dam..... I do know that is it's just the combo of both services just sending out their forecasts and it looking very ugly on a map but it is just amazing that they don't collaborate on these forecasts at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Really amazing how the Euro just completely blew this from 3-4 days out. There was little to no 850 push on the Euro as of a few days ago. The GFS and the longer range NAM had it. The NAM also led the way on insisting that it would be significantly warmer at the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, high risk said: The NAM also led the way on insisting that it would be significantly warmer at the surface. Inside 60 hours, the NAM has been money all winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, LP08 said: 24 hours on the euro total precip. To state the obvious, tonight has turned into the main event and sadly for central va, it’s going the wrong way. Shocking it caved to ALL OTHER GUIDANCE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It makes sense that if the first wave is stronger, it drags the boundary farther south where wave 2 rides along it. And that creates a screw zone where they don’t overlap. On another note, 3k NAM soundings look much improved for central MD vs yesterday when it was looking like a weaker wave 1. After the first hour or two of snow, there’s nice dendrite production for the whole event except right as the mix line pokes a bit north near 8z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Inside 60 hours, the NAM has been money all winter. Even if not perfect, the output has been a harbinger of eventual outcome. I mean, the model is doing what it is supposed to do.. giving guidance that can be used to make educated forecasts. I am impressed. It is becoming clear that this year, the way things are set up, it is a model that needs respect for possibilities. No model is perfect, but they do let you know what to watch for... Much more respect. I feel @ers-wxman1 should chime in as he saw the merit to it in the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It makes sense that if the first wave is stronger, it drags the boundary farther south where wave 2 rides along it. And that creates a screw zone where they don’t overlap. On another note, 3k NAM soundings look much improved for central MD vs yesterday when it was looking like a weaker wave 1. After the first hour or two of snow, there’s nice dendrite production for the whole event except right as the mix mix like pokes a bit north near 8z. Been feeling for the last day or two that we (the HoCo crew) might finally be in one of the better spots for this one. Bout time right!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Shocking it caved to ALL OTHER GUIDANCE It's frustrating honestly. I know it was on an Island but no terribly so. The euro and EPS were honking pretty loud for an event at 90 hours! In years past, that seemed to be a great spot. What good is the EPS if at 90 hours, showing a max precip stripe through the area with buffer on both sides only to completely go the other way only 24hrs later. I know i know, blend everything but frustrating, especially for us near and south of DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The NAM hasn't verified yet. And there are major differences from the GFS. Especially out this way.. The GFS appears it will be the winner with the Central VA snow hole though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: Been feeling for the last day or two that we (the HoCo crew) might finally be in one of the better spots for this one. Bout time right!? Hug the 12z NSSL-WRF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, wxtrix said: If DC gets the 1.4 inches of qpf the NAM spots out in frozen form over the next 84 hours... whether that be snow or sleet or freezing rain... I’ll be pretty satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: Hug the 12z NSSL-WRF! what does it show for HoCo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: It's frustrating honestly. I know it was on an Island but no terribly so. The euro and EPS were honking pretty loud for an event at 90 hours! In years past, that seemed to be a great spot. What good is the EPS if at 90 hours, showing a max precip stripe through the area with buffer on both sides only to completely go the other way only 24hrs later. I know i know, blend everything but frustrating, especially for us near and south of DC. Euro has definitely NOT been a locked in rock inside 72hrs like it used to be. I’ve seen people on Twitter speculate it’s due to the reduction of aircraft data feeding into it due to covid. But i figure that would impact all the models, so I’m not sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: what does it show for HoCo? The NAM nest shows a general 3-7 inches from just south of DC to the PA line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, high risk said: Hug the 12z NSSL-WRF! I mean, I’ll take a euro/NAM blend right now quite happily for MBY. Is the WRF the one you said you liked on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro has definitely NOT been a locked in rock inside 72hrs like it used to be. I’ve seen people on Twitter speculate it’s due to the reduction of aircraft data feeding into it due to covid. But i figure that would impact all the models, so I’m not sure. IIRC, the euro relies pretty heavily on aircraft data because of the data void over the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: IIRC, the euro relies pretty heavily on aircraft data because of the data void over the Atlantic Ocean. Moreso than other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: IIRC, the euro relies pretty heavily on aircraft data because of the data void over the Atlantic Ocean. Supposedly the EPS/control is getting an upgrade this week. stormvista advertising on the homepage fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Moreso than other guidance? Yes. I learned this ironically at the ESRI conference in San Diego where a rep. from the ECMWF showed a data density map of observations and how there really isn't any ship or buoy data in the Atlantic. They were able to pull a lot of commercial aircraft data down because that's the only heads up they get about the mid latitude cyclones pushing into Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 the RGEM shifted south quite a bit for the 2nd wave unfortuantely but you knew that was coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has definitely NOT been a locked in rock inside 72hrs like it used to be. I’ve seen people on Twitter speculate it’s due to the reduction of aircraft data feeding into it due to covid. But i figure that would impact all the models, so I’m not sure. It probably did impact them all and we just didn't notice because the other ones already sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. I learned this ironically at the ESRI conference in San Diego where a rep. from the ECMWF showed a data density map of observations and how there really isn't any ship or buoy data in the Atlantic. They were able to pull a lot of commercial aircraft data down because that's the only heads up they get about the mid latitude cyclones pushing into Europe. Interesting, thanks. But given that’s downwind of us, would need to see if that impacts these short range forecasts over North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has definitely NOT been a locked in rock inside 72hrs like it used to be. I’ve seen people on Twitter speculate it’s due to the reduction of aircraft data feeding into it due to covid. But i figure that would impact all the models, so I’m not sure. It would but it’s hypothetically possible for a reduction in data to effect one more then other depending on how much they rely on initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It’s surprising this trended to another white rain/mix event with temps 33-36 in DC. I guess that’s been the seasonal trend though, there is never any deep cold preceding a storm. We haven’t had a storm with temps in the 20s the night before in quite some time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, I’ll take a euro/NAM blend right now quite happily for MBY. Is the WRF the one you said you liked on Sunday? 14 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: what does it show for HoCo? I do like this model, but I suspect it's a bit wet for tonight. I sure do love where it puts the heavier stripe: 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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