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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Love the 3km NAM. Still time for it to tick north a tad for wave 2.

For wave 2 more then a north trend from the boundary wave what I’m curious is if the precip associated with the upper level dynamics which actually track right over is juiced up some. Wouldn’t take much because ratios would be very high under that.  Juice that up to like .25 qpf and everyone gets a nice little 3-4” at the end. 

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8 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

there’s nowhere to go but up! :drunk:

 

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol some bad collaborating going on between offices

i'm going to hug state college's totals and put myself in the 4-6 range. 

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I have the up most respect for what the professionals do.  

I do think LWX might a little low with most guidance pointing to a .3 to .6 qpf snow event. Especially in Northern MD.

I agree with you. It seems we do better whem LWX is playing catch up and adjusting upward as the event nears.

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5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

 

I have the up most respect for what the professionals do.  

I do think LWX might a little low with most guidance pointing to a .3 to .6 qpf snow event. Especially in Northern MD.

I agree with you. It seems we do better whem LWX is playing catch up and adjusting upward as the event nears.

I was surprised this morning at how conservative LWX went with their overnight package, after some bullish hints from their office yesterday.  That said, the point forecast for my area has under 0.5" today, 2-4" tonight and under 1 inch tomorrow, suggestive of more snow than the 1-3 the WWA calls for.

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6 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Spring is coming but we need a few more big hits before that happens. 

Going to be hard to keep people in DC and NOVA invested in this winter much longer.. This was supposed to be the one storm that was A) Easy to track.  B ) Overrunning and hard to miss us C ) Cold and all snow D) Depending on model runs, wedged between jackpot just north or a jackpot just south, so in a good position. Yet, it looks like we are going to still fail.   

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Just now, toolsheds said:

I really love the invisible barrier otherwise known as the Mason Dixon Line which seems to depict a massive cold air dam.....

 

I do know that is it's just the combo of both services just sending out their forecasts and it looking very ugly on a map but it is just amazing that they don't collaborate on these forecasts at some point. 

 

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Really amazing how the Euro just completely blew this from 3-4 days out.  There was little to no 850 push on the Euro as of a few days ago.  The GFS and the longer range NAM had it.

 

          The NAM also led the way on insisting that it would be significantly warmer at the surface.

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It makes sense that if the first wave is stronger, it drags the boundary farther south where wave 2 rides along it. And that creates a screw zone where they don’t overlap. 
 

On another note, 3k NAM soundings look much improved for central MD vs yesterday when it was looking like a weaker wave 1. After the first hour or two of snow, there’s nice dendrite production for the whole event except right as the mix line pokes a bit north near 8z.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Inside 60 hours, the NAM has been money all winter.

Even if not perfect, the output has been a harbinger of eventual outcome. I mean, the model is doing what it is supposed to do.. giving guidance that can be used to make educated forecasts. I am impressed. It is becoming clear that this year, the way things are set up, it is a model that needs respect for possibilities. No model is perfect, but they do let you know what to watch for... Much more respect. I feel @ers-wxman1  should chime in as he saw the merit to it in the first storm.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It makes sense that if the first wave is stronger, it drags the boundary farther south where wave 2 rides along it. And that creates a screw zone where they don’t overlap. 
 

On another note, 3k NAM soundings look much improved for central MD vs yesterday when it was looking like a weaker wave 1. After the first hour or two of snow, there’s nice dendrite production for the whole event except right as the mix mix like pokes a bit north near 8z.

Been feeling for the last day or two that we (the HoCo crew) might finally be in one of the better spots for this one. Bout time right!?

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Shocking it caved to ALL OTHER GUIDANCE 

It's frustrating honestly.  I know it was on an Island but no terribly so. The euro and EPS were honking pretty loud for an event at 90 hours! In years past, that seemed to be a great spot.  What good is the EPS if at 90 hours, showing a max precip stripe through the area with buffer on both sides only to completely go the other way only 24hrs later.  I know i know, blend everything but frustrating, especially for us near and south of DC.

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7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It's frustrating honestly.  I know it was on an Island but no terribly so. The euro and EPS were honking pretty loud for an event at 90 hours! In years past, that seemed to be a great spot.  What good is the EPS if at 90 hours, showing a max precip stripe through the area with buffer on both sides only to completely go the other way only 24hrs later.  I know i know, blend everything but frustrating, especially for us near and south of DC.

Euro has definitely NOT been a locked in rock inside 72hrs like it used to be. I’ve seen people on Twitter speculate it’s due to the reduction of aircraft data feeding into it due to covid. But i figure that would impact all the models, so I’m not sure. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro has definitely NOT been a locked in rock inside 72hrs like it used to be. I’ve seen people on Twitter speculate it’s due to the reduction of aircraft data feeding into it due to covid. But i figure that would impact all the models, so I’m not sure. 

IIRC, the euro relies pretty heavily on aircraft data because of the data void over the Atlantic Ocean.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Moreso than other guidance?

Yes. I learned this ironically at the ESRI conference in San Diego where a rep. from the ECMWF showed a data density map of observations and how there really isn't any ship or buoy data in the Atlantic. They were able to pull a lot of commercial aircraft data down because that's the only heads up they get about the mid latitude cyclones pushing into Europe.

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