Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WB 3K NAM at 12Z Wave 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It's pretty bad brother. We get a half inch of snow while Frederick gets 5. You aren’t looking at all of it. The 3k soundings are below freezing all the way down. The 12k is barely above around 800. It’s wet. I’ll take my chances. And don’t forget that it’s the NAM. The model that gave us 3-4” a couple of weeks ago and it rained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 lol some bad collaborating going on between offices i'm going to hug state college's totals and put myself in the 4-6 range. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3k is no good for the DC area (sorry for the focus there). Clicking through soundings it never drops below 34 and has an even more pronounced warm nose further up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: lol some bad collaborating going on between offices i'm going to hug state college's totals and put myself in the 4-6 range. Lol. Been awhile since we've seen one of those bad maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: there’s nowhere to go but up! I know. Which is what I said earlier about LWX having advisories instead of warnings. They always downgrade once the storm gets going, maybe this time they will upgrade. A weenie can hope. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: Lol. Been awhile since we've seen one of those bad maps I am here to serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Good lord guys, the NAM has rain in Morgantown. Are we really gonna lean in this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Good lord guys, the NAM has rain in Morgantown. Are we really gonna lean in this model? Yes. It gives me .5 qpf, its the best model ever. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Ready to flip to rooting for a south trend again? 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Lol. Been awhile since we've seen one of those bad maps 3 minutes ago, mappy said: lol some bad collaborating going on between offices i'm going to hug state college's totals and put myself in the 4-6 range. Looks pretty obvious which office has left the reservation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM at 12Z Wave 1 Sabillasville jackpot, part deux 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Yes. It gives me .5 qpf, its the best model ever. Not knocking it’s qpf. I like that too. But the precip types? If it’s right every NWS office around is wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM at 45 is just a wild look. Splashes a few inches across MD in wave 1, then a few from here in CHO south in Wave 2.. and leaves a hole of zero frozen precip that stretches across NOVA, Southern MD and DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Good lord guys, the NAM has rain in Morgantown. Are we really gonna lean in this model? Yes. Any model that torches a storm first is always right. Well.. at least for my area this winter. Always go with the model with the worst solution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not knocking it’s qpf. I like that too. But the precip types? If it’s right every NWS office around is wrong Oh. I haven't actually looked at the model, just what was posted here. I don't pay attention to the precip types, its very generalized. Gotta look at soundings for any one location to really know what the type is. Up here, for me at least, it will be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, high risk said: Really need to focus on the NAM nest over the parent here. We've seen the parent NAM be too wet in the short range for several events now, and it sure seems that way again. The nest looks far more reasonable. The nest also keeps DC and areas along and south of Route 50 as a mix going to rain, and that makes sense to me again (with the parent slightly further south with the rain-snow line). 3K is still pretty wet for Baltimore though so Ill take it lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 SPC has 850’s dropping here as the day progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 hours ago, Ji said: 4 hours ago, yoda said: Not good for dt Richmond 10 Short pump gets shorted 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Oh. I haven't actually looked at the model, just what was posted here. I don't pay attention to the precip types, its very generalized. Gotta look at soundings for any one location to really know what the type is. Up here, for me at least, it will be all snow. Soundings. Exactly. Not model maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Yes. Any model that torches a storm first is always right. Well.. at least for my area this winter. Always go with the model with the worst solution. Can it just be spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Soundings. Exactly. Not model maps Yup. Wish others would learn to do the same. Forecasts aren't made off of snow maps. As trixie mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM now has weak wave three trying to affect us Friday. Wonder what it will come up with next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, IronTy said: Can it just be spring yet? Spring is coming but we need a few more big hits before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Love the 3km NAM. Still time for it to tick north a tad for wave 2. For wave 2 more then a north trend from the boundary wave what I’m curious is if the precip associated with the upper level dynamics which actually track right over is juiced up some. Wouldn’t take much because ratios would be very high under that. Juice that up to like .25 qpf and everyone gets a nice little 3-4” at the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: NAM now has weak wave three trying to affect us Friday. Wonder what it will come up with next? Wave four Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, wxtrix said: there’s nowhere to go but up! 10 minutes ago, mappy said: lol some bad collaborating going on between offices i'm going to hug state college's totals and put myself in the 4-6 range. I have the up most respect for what the professionals do. I do think LWX might a little low with most guidance pointing to a .3 to .6 qpf snow event. Especially in Northern MD. I agree with you. It seems we do better whem LWX is playing catch up and adjusting upward as the event nears. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I have the up most respect for what the professionals do. I do think LWX might a little low with most guidance pointing to a .3 to .6 qpf snow event. Especially in Northern MD. I agree with you. It seems we do better whem LWX is playing catch up and adjusting upward as the event nears. I was surprised this morning at how conservative LWX went with their overnight package, after some bullish hints from their office yesterday. That said, the point forecast for my area has under 0.5" today, 2-4" tonight and under 1 inch tomorrow, suggestive of more snow than the 1-3 the WWA calls for. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: I was surprised this morning at how conservative LWX went with their overnight package, after some bullish hints from their office yesterday. They might be a tad gunshy after this past weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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