Warm Nose Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Calm down, let it play out and see how it falls. Real-time shifts are inevitable. Be happy we get anything and maybe focus on enjoying it instead of worrying about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, wxtrix said: we’re on the northern fringe of the overall guidance and it’s a cold dry airmass. 1-3” is a reasonable forecast through tomorrow morning and it can be upgraded if necessary. We are currently on the northern fringe with wave 2 but not for wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I'm not feeling as good about this morning. we could seriously be in the screw zone...which would mean we are in the usual zone. so actually we are where we should be. Nevermind I feel a lot better about it now. I was starting to think about this yesterday. Seeing how we're right on the edge for both waves and knowing our climo, we're gonna get royally screwed. Is what it is tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Youre too warm for wave 1...and wave 2 is kinda looking crappy right now They should call them ripples not waves! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Calm down, let it play out and see how it falls. Real-time shifts are inevitable. Be happy we get anything and maybe focus on enjoying it instead of worrying about it. lol are you new here? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 6z euro caved to the gfs with the central VA snow hole. The Gfs has been pretty damn consistent in all honesty. We just don't know if it has been consistently wrong yet. But I am certainly hugging it out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 HRRR looks like a no go for wave 2 though for the most part, maybe light precip coming up. Not a surprise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 HRRR is trending towards the worst-case scenario for DC. Too warm with the 1st batch and the second misses south. 3 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR is trending towards the worst-case scenario for DC. Too warm with the 1st batch and the second misses south. What hrrr are you looking at. Looks pretty damn good to me. Of course it’s the hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z nam is ice with wave one. Even out here. Congrats PSU. Smdh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Nam wetter but its ice even into MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What hrrr are you looking at. Looks pretty damn good to me. Of course it’s the hrrr It looks good for Winchester..not so much for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12z nam is ice with wave one. Even out here. Congrats PSU. Smdh No way. Didn't see that happening. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 SREFS are drier FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The Nam 12z stinks for anyone not in Maryland I mean we get 2 hours of snow and 2 of ice then rain. Unlikely but not great for morale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said: I’m going with 2-4” for most north of US rt 50. Extend that west thru Virginia. I mean splitting hairs I guess but most places should see at least 2” from this but probably not more then 4 or 5 Did you know that Rt 50 runs west of Maryland through Virginia all the way to West Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The Baltimore crew is loving the NAM. Nice hit up that way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Baltimore just hangs on to snow on the NAM...verbatim its nice cuz its wetter but getting too close for mixing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Swiscaster said: Did you know that Rt 50 runs west of Maryland through Virginia all the way to West Virginia? Never been on that part of it so no not really lol..but still point remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12z nam is ice with wave one. Even out here. Congrats PSU. Smdh I see a period of MAYBE ice but doesn’t look bad to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 how close did the euro get to mix/ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The Baltimore crew is loving the NAM. Nice hit up that way. got a precip total map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WB 12Z 12K NAM first wave 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I see a period of MAYBE ice but doesn’t look bad to me It's pretty bad brother. We get a half inch of snow while Frederick gets 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3K NAM with a nice burst of snow right over Batimore at 11pm lol...sorry Im being IMBY 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Baltimore just hangs on to snow on the NAM...verbatim its nice cuz its wetter but getting too close for mixing And seasonal trend for I-95 seems to be the mix line always creeps a bit farther north, and faster, than the models suggest... (And that also includes Philadelphia and New York areas during their storms). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: 3K NAM with a nice burst of snow right over Batimore at 11pm lol...sorry Im being IMBY It's an imby sport. And I would be happy if I was up there as well. Nice storm on the NAM for ya'll. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, real said: And seasonal trend for I-95 seems to be the mix line always creeps a bit farther north, and faster, than the models suggest... (And that also includes Philadelphia and New York areas during their storms). Yeah but right now it kinda seems on its own with the mixing line that far north..I mean we are only talking 30 miles though so who knows it could be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: It's an imby sport. And I would be happy if I was up there as well. Nice storm on the NAM for ya'll. Yeah that NE confluence seems to be helping in northern/NE MD now that part 1 is spreading more north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Really need to focus on the NAM nest over the parent here. We've seen the parent NAM be too wet in the short range for several events now, and it sure seems that way again. The nest looks far more reasonable. The nest also keeps DC and areas along and south of Route 50 as a mix going to rain, and that makes sense to me again (with the parent slightly further south with the rain-snow line). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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