CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I despise the GFS. It continually has a precip hole here lol. I am pretty much fine with the rest of the guidance. It hates you too Love the 3km NAM. Still time for it to tick north a tad for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I despise the GFS. It continually has a precip hole here lol. I am pretty much fine with the rest of the guidance. Same. I get action, but it's meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 06z GFS is cold enough in the entire column... that there is some snow around in N VA into MD at 21z SAT (hour 87) But the majority of the "event" is mid 20s and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 So Saturday is round 3? Let’s go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like LWX will be playing catch up with this one. 1-3" seems laughably low for out this way (Charles Town). Not sure any guidance at any point has supported that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Gfs sleet but later in day Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Saturday looks like a decent ice storm to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Realistically 4" is top end for wave one here. The snow growth looks pretty meh. Wont be anything like Sunday. Otoh colder temps, at least overnight tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 That PV doesn’t budge. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 06z PARA is a lil further north with the total snow compared to 00z... but still very nice for the region through 60 -- 4 to 8 inches on Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 HREF snow mean looks good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 06z PARA is a lil further north with the total snow compared to 00z... but still very nice for the region through 60 -- 4 to 8 inches on Kuchera Does it wave 2 us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z PARA is a lil further north with the total snow compared to 00z... but still very nice for the region through 60 -- 4 to 8 inches on Kuchera Does it wave 2 us? sort of... but better south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 And once again DCA busts ridiculously high on the forecasted low of 29. Hit 34, currently at 35. Will likely be around 40 or so today and then with clouds will struggle to drop. Yes, it’s cold aloft, yes, wet bulbs, yada yada yada. But Probably still will waste some of whatever QPF falls as (maybe white) rain. This was supposed to be a different airmass but something about downtown DC unlike other UHI just simply doesn’t allow it to get cold anymore. Another event where we will likely struggle with temps at least early on in the immediate metro. At least it starts at night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It’s been a while since we have had an upgrade to the WWA. Today, would be a good day to break that pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I’ll say most of us around Baltimore this time get 2-3” from this one. Maybe a few of us get lucky with 4”. At least we don’t have to worry about rain this time, though I guess surface temps are still a little marginal especially in metro areas. Part 2 generally looking like a dud though. Not the bigger snows it could have been again but maybe we can at least blanket things up with a couple inches and then wait for our ice ice baby Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I’ll say most of us around Baltimore this time get 2-3” from this one. Maybe a few of us get lucky with 4”. At least we don’t have to worry about rain this time, though I guess surface temps are still a little marginal especially in metro areas. Part 2 generally looking like a dud though. Not the bigger snows it could have been again but maybe we can at least blanket things up with a couple inches and then wait for our ice ice baby Saturday It’s weird, but I am slightly more optimistic this AM about it for us. I would put the area-wide range for the balt city crew at 3-6 ( mostly from round 1). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 LWX with advisories is good yall. Usually they go warnings and they don't pan out and get downgraded, so maybe we can reverse psychology this system and get warning level snows while under advisories 14 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: HREF snow mean looks good. If my memory serves me, these did well with our last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Hey would ya look at that, actually waking up to a good Euro run. 3-6 inches wave 1 for DC and Baltimore lock it up baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This is so very interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Man...so what is going to happen tonight? 1-3" 2-4" 3-6" 1-6? 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It’s weird, but I am slightly more optimistic this AM about it for us. I would put the area-wide range for the balt city crew at 3-6 ( mostly from round 1). Seems like general consensus for us is like .4 precip if you kind of blend everything. Unusual that we maximize precip to what’s on the ground so that’s why i said 2-3” lol. I’m not complaining really I’m just glad I don’t think rain will be an issue for my area. Just let the snow fall and what can add up will add up, that’s my take on this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 And so is this. Not the amount or the probability but the location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Man...so what is going to happen tonight? 1-3" 2-4" 3-6" 1-6? Yes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerichohill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Once again, a disappointing trend right before the storm comes. I am so tired of this Was previously in a 6-8 in band, now 3-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, Jerichohill said: Once again, a disappointing trend right before the storm comes. I am so tired of this Was previously in a 6-8 in band, now 3-4 thats them breaks. system was looking much better earlier in the week and now is no longer that way. oh well. snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Man...so what is going to happen tonight? 1-3" 2-4" 3-6" 1-6? I’m wondering the same thing. Hagerstown area could get anywhere from 2-3 (Euro) to 6-9 (GFS, NAM, RGEM). Is there any other model still as dry as the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This is just west of dc tonight on the nam. This doesn’t seem like an overwhelming warm nose to me on the sounding so maybe just some crappy flakes instead of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WB 6Z EURO first wave, second wave misses. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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