ravensrule Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Round 2 might be a debacle. Gonna let it run, but starting out south of 12z position. I hope it's just slower. The Euro will get that right at 0Z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Very light snow up to DC at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm shocked by these euro revelations. I mean who can imagine this kind of craziness. Wow. But you stayed up to see it didn't you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Round 2 might be a debacle. Gonna let it run, but starting out south of 12z position. I hope it's just slower. It is...but might be a better "plan" to bank tomorrow/thu than hope for some overperformer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Round 2 might be a debacle. Gonna let it run, but starting out south of 12z position. I hope it's just slower. Considering the first piece finally has consensus with just 24 hour leads, it would be best for the entire forum's health to ignore round 2 for 24 hours 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: But you stayed up to see it didn't you lol Stayed up and took care of my early morning work so I can sleep in a little. Balancing time is tuff for me. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yup. Round 2 for us is completely dead on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering the first piece finally has consensus with just 24 hour leads, it would be best for the entire forum's health to ignore round 2 for 24 hours hmmm..This actually worked...I'm focused only on round 1 for now...and thus this is a good run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering the first piece finally has consensus with just 24 hour leads, it would be best for the entire forum's health to ignore round 2 for 24 hours Yeah, I'm only focused on round 1 which may be just the whole story for us. hope it keeps juicing up. Time to adjust our expectations and just deal with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Over suppression and should relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup. Round 2 for us is completely dead on the Euro. But the pros aren't convinced and neither is other guidance to this degree. I'm happy with five inches tomorrow night, whatever happens Thursday night, and then take our chances with whatever happens Saturday into next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, jayyy said: So. Much. Wintry. weather. Here is LWX’s take. High pressure will remain situated off to the north to northwest of our region on Wednesday as a warm front builds near our region. Dry conditions ahead of the warm front building into our region will be dry with light and northerly winds. The warm front is expected to start impacting our region late Wednesday afternoon as overrunning precipitation combines with reinforcing cold air from the north to start the long duration winter event. Precipitation is forecast to impact our region after 18Z Wednesday with main winter impacts beginning after 00Z Thursday. A brief warm up ahead of the precip is expected up into the low 40s on Wednesday but then the high pressure to the north is expected to wedge in cold near to below freezing temps south through the majority of our region.When the winter precipitation begins, some areas in central Virginia will likely experience periods of rain/snow/sleet mix especially down near Charlottesville during the 21Z to 6Z period. Cold air is then expected to filter in for all of our region by Thursday morning leading to a transition to an all snow event. Two rounds of wintry precipitation are likely with this long duration with the first round coming with the overruning precipitation from the warm front located near our region which will mainly be through 15Z Thursday. Mixing of snow and sleet will likely prevent higher snow totals through the first round of precipitation but areas along our Allegheny front zones in western MD, eastern WV and Highland VA could see local amounts upwards of 8 inches. I don`t really have confidence to go further east with higher snow totals for the majority of our region reaching Advisory level snow at the most for the first event. A second round of wintry precipitation is expected as the surface low moves off to our south Thursday afternoon into Friday. This second round will likely be the heaviest snow of the event as cold air will be entrenched throughout the thermal layer and some of the heaviest precipitation is expected to move through our region during this period. Generally the second round of snow is expected to be focused more south of the DC metro and I-66 corridor with the highest totals expected down into central Virginia at this time. There has been a general trend southward with guidance which leads to keep the heaviest snow further south in central Virginia. Some localized enhancing of snow totals further north will be possible due to a low level jet forming Thursday evening and i`m not confident enough to rule out heavier snow reaching further north at this time with the second round. Generally through the full long duration event which is expected to be almost a 48 hour period, the majority our region may see 5 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts possible in central Virginia and along the Allegheny front. After 00Z Wednesday, temperatures at the surface are expected to remain mostly below freeing throughout the event. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Friday morning, a trailing shortwave will traverse the stalled frontal zone set up to the south. The band of overrunning snowfall should continue through much of the morning before high pressure builds in for the second half of the day. This may produce another 1 to 3 inches of snow on top of what will have fallen in the previous 36 hours. Mostly cloudy conditions should prevail in the wake which will keep temperatures at, or below the freezing mark in spots aside from central Virginia and southern Maryland. Abundant cloud cover sticks around overnight with low temperatures in the low/mid 20s, teens in the mountains. A rather potent upper low originating from the polar regions is forecast to drop southward from Manitoba and move across the Great Lakes over the weekend. Within the southern stream, another impulse begins to move through the southeastern U.S. and eventually offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. A coastal wave forms with these height falls on Saturday which may introduce additional snowfall to the region. The best chance for accumulations will be west of I-95 given more supportive boundary layer temperatures. Given uncertainty in the timing and position of this system, the rain/snow line will need to be ironed out in future model cycles. Precipitation may linger into Sunday as an Arctic cold front races toward the Eastern Seaboard. It is difficult to say how much snowfall would occur along this advancing boundary with the 12Z GFS being the most robust. The modified Arctic air arrives in earnest by Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. Sunday night`s low temperatures likely drop into the teens east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains with single digits possible elsewhere. For early next week, tranquil conditions are expected for Monday in the wake of the weekend system. A sprawling 1048-mb ridge centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley will extend modified Arctic air into the central/eastern U.S. Monday`s high temperatures should stay at, or below the freezing mark in most locations with teens over the higher mountain peaks. Yet another system is continuing to be monitored with arrival early next Tuesday. Quite a bit of spread exists in the guidance but it continues to bear watching. This is a great writeup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Models can barely agree on or figure out part 1... let’s worry about part 2 at 0z tomorrow. edit — really nice to see euro go north tonight for round 1. Puts the BWI area in the bullseye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: But the pros aren't convinced and neither is other guidance to this degree. I'm happy with five inches tomorrow night, whatever happens Thursday night, and then take our chances with whatever happens Saturday into next week. We have 4 winter weather events to track in the next 6 days. In a niña winter. That alone is incredible. If we can get a solid 3-6” round 1, a good ice storm this weekend, followed by more snow next week - all as the coldest airmass of the season arrives... woof. one thing is dead certain... the next 7 days will both be and look quite wintry around these parts. Been a long time since we’ve been able to say that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: We have 4 winter weather events to track in the next 6 days. In a niña winter. That alone is incredible. If we can get a solid 3-6” round 1, a good ice storm this weekend, followed by more snow next week - all as the coldest airmass of the season arrives... woof. one thing is dead certain... the next 7 days will both be and look quite wintry around these parts. Been a long time since we’ve been able to say that. Amen. The last six inch storm within 24 hrs that I saw was 2018 in New York—on November 15th. It’s been strangely barren that’s for sure. Just happy something is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 00Z ECMWF, like others, are clustering along the 50 corridor for us easterners along/east of the District. Anyway, hot off the presses: The latest 72hr probabilities from WPC (2", 4", and 8"), along with the 50/50 or "most likely" amount. Guidance is really clustering in on a 3-5/4-6" type scenario for most of us with both waves (still feel the bulk for most of us along/north of U.S. 50 will see the bulk in wave #1). Notice how the probs of >2" and >4" in the 3-day period are pretty high, then drop precipitously with the >8" probs -- indicative of a moderate event with probably "meh" rates over (hopefully) a longer duration, as lift in the DGZ remains lackluster. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Dont look at the 6z 12k NAM. What an epic fail for DC. Heavier with wave 1, but it's mostly rain/mix. Complete whiff, Euro Like, for second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Dont look at the 6z 12k NAM. What an epic fail for DC. Heavier with wave 1, but it's mostly rain/mix. Complete whiff, Euro Like, for second wave.Why do you stay up for the 6z runs again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dont look at the 6z 12k NAM. What an epic fail for DC. Heavier with wave 1, but it's mostly rain/mix. Complete whiff, Euro Like, for second wave. Why do you stay up for the 6z runs again? Insomnia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Dont look at the 6z 12k NAM. What an epic fail for DC. Heavier with wave 1, but it's mostly rain/mix. Complete whiff, Euro Like, for second wave.The nam3k seems colder but dryaf for the first wave lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 lol, Clown map on TT has 7-8 for DC, and LESS north of us, although they are all snow. TT algorithm must be programmed by one of the weenies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6Z 12K NAM is not our friend. Warmer on first wave and second wave is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 lol, Clown map on TT has 7-8 for DC, and LESS north of us, although they are all snow. TT algorithm must be programmed by one of the weenies here. Just take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Thanks for the heads up will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WB 3K NAM. Basically over by early am Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Thanks for the heads up will It's almost like he doesn't read any posts before he posts. We've covered that like 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It is too bad, another dud. I am disappointed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 3knam moved north with wave 2 but no idea what its doing for wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of The District of Columbia, central, north central, northeast and northern Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 That sucks URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ027>031-039-040- 052>054-501-505-506-WVZ051>053-101645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.210211T0000Z-210211T1500Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 333 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of The District of Columbia, central, north central, northeast and northern Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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