PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, wawarriors4 said: This seems loltastic I’m still shoveling the 8-12” he gave me for the last two systems. Take whatever he forecasts for SoMD and divide it by ten- then it should be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I'm under a watch....snow starts in like 12 hours...i guess they'll upgrade overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: lol He rarely has Richmond in play.. I feel hes pretty decent with his maps. better than average at least I find his maps extremely bullish in most instances. They bust a lot. I think he gave DC 8" last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 44 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We don’t have ridiculous expectations. We do seek competency. You are absolutely right and glad to hear you say it-The Models Try To Do Too Much. So, do less or do different Want nice atmosphere when Obs time starts so will leave it at that. But, when things slow down will release a thread with detailed, rational and verified wholesale different method of modeling. I don’t just bitch, I offer suggestions and possible solutions. But you never offer predictions, or possible glimpses into the future like the models and ensembles do. Or forecasts that can be verified or not. We all get your point that the models aren’t perfect and that climo and experience matter. But why come to a weather board where we are by definition discussing model runs to constantly deb on the models? Without offering any sort of insight vis a vis the forecast of the storm that we are all following thanks to the technology you claim to not trust? Just saying! Back on topic, models look decent for the whole event imby, but wave 1 is nearly a non-event here NW of Staunton. I am not complaining, though, since we look to be in the bulls eye for wave 2 on some of the ensembles and globals as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's not what he's saying at all. The entire forecasting field would be lost beyond a few days without them. It's hobbiests that expect waaaay too much out of them. They are tools. And damn good ones. I don't care if he wants to spout crazy that the guidance is no good...he is wrong imo but whatever, that is his opinion. But I cannot stand his assertions that there is some kind of nefarious conspiracy by the people who program NWP to intentionally mislead. He makes these accusations without a shred of evidence to substantiate them. Its slander against some really brilliant and principled people, some of whom participate in this very thread. I know most choose to just ignore him but I just can't stomach that he thinks its acceptable to make those kinds of unfounded accusations against people in this forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I find his maps extremely bullish in most instances. They bust a lot. I think he gave DC 8" last week... Mark Ellinwood is the best snow mapper on these boards, bar none. His maps are consistently the best and most realistic imo. Agree with you on DT - often way too high. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, TowsonWeather said: Mark Ellinwood is the best snow mapper on these boards, bar none. His maps are consistently the best and most realistic imo. Agree with you on DT - often way too high. Unfortunately he hasn’t posted this year. @Ellinwood do you not love us anymore?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I find his maps extremely bullish in most instances. They bust a lot. I think he gave DC 8" last week... That's being generous. I would say that his maps are drawn with the sort of fantasies I had in mind when drawing up dream scenarios in high school when bored. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't care if he wants to spout crazy that the guidance is no good...he is wrong imo but whatever, that is his opinion. But I cannot stand his assertions that there is some kind of nefarious conspiracy by the people who program NWP to intentionally mislead. He makes these accusations without a shred of evidence to substantiate them. Its slander against some really brilliant and principled people, some of whom participate in this very thread. I know most choose to just ignore him but I just can't stomach that he thinks its acceptable to make those kinds of unfounded accusations against people in this forum. I think you take him too seriously and too much to heart, man. You might have to use that ignore feature for the first time for your own health! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Unfortunately he hasn’t posted this year. @Ellinwood do you not love us anymore?. He posted a map for the 31-33rd storm last weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Unfortunately he hasn’t posted this year. @Ellinwood do you not love us anymore?. Believe he was in here during the recent long duration storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Believe he was in here during the recent long duration storm. Thanks. I must have missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Ukie went north with wave 1 and really dried up wave 2. Pretty big reduction for totals of both. Still 3-5" area-wide, but down from 6-8". Probably just coming into reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 We usually get one and miss one and there’s a 20 mile swatch that gets the overlap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 So. Much. Wintry. weather. Here is LWX’s take. High pressure will remain situated off to the north to northwest of our region on Wednesday as a warm front builds near our region. Dry conditions ahead of the warm front building into our region will be dry with light and northerly winds. The warm front is expected to start impacting our region late Wednesday afternoon as overrunning precipitation combines with reinforcing cold air from the north to start the long duration winter event. Precipitation is forecast to impact our region after 18Z Wednesday with main winter impacts beginning after 00Z Thursday. A brief warm up ahead of the precip is expected up into the low 40s on Wednesday but then the high pressure to the north is expected to wedge in cold near to below freezing temps south through the majority of our region.When the winter precipitation begins, some areas in central Virginia will likely experience periods of rain/snow/sleet mix especially down near Charlottesville during the 21Z to 6Z period. Cold air is then expected to filter in for all of our region by Thursday morning leading to a transition to an all snow event. Two rounds of wintry precipitation are likely with this long duration with the first round coming with the overruning precipitation from the warm front located near our region which will mainly be through 15Z Thursday. Mixing of snow and sleet will likely prevent higher snow totals through the first round of precipitation but areas along our Allegheny front zones in western MD, eastern WV and Highland VA could see local amounts upwards of 8 inches. I don`t really have confidence to go further east with higher snow totals for the majority of our region reaching Advisory level snow at the most for the first event. A second round of wintry precipitation is expected as the surface low moves off to our south Thursday afternoon into Friday. This second round will likely be the heaviest snow of the event as cold air will be entrenched throughout the thermal layer and some of the heaviest precipitation is expected to move through our region during this period. Generally the second round of snow is expected to be focused more south of the DC metro and I-66 corridor with the highest totals expected down into central Virginia at this time. There has been a general trend southward with guidance which leads to keep the heaviest snow further south in central Virginia. Some localized enhancing of snow totals further north will be possible due to a low level jet forming Thursday evening and i`m not confident enough to rule out heavier snow reaching further north at this time with the second round. Generally through the full long duration event which is expected to be almost a 48 hour period, the majority our region may see 5 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts possible in central Virginia and along the Allegheny front. After 00Z Wednesday, temperatures at the surface are expected to remain mostly below freeing throughout the event. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Friday morning, a trailing shortwave will traverse the stalled frontal zone set up to the south. The band of overrunning snowfall should continue through much of the morning before high pressure builds in for the second half of the day. This may produce another 1 to 3 inches of snow on top of what will have fallen in the previous 36 hours. Mostly cloudy conditions should prevail in the wake which will keep temperatures at, or below the freezing mark in spots aside from central Virginia and southern Maryland. Abundant cloud cover sticks around overnight with low temperatures in the low/mid 20s, teens in the mountains. A rather potent upper low originating from the polar regions is forecast to drop southward from Manitoba and move across the Great Lakes over the weekend. Within the southern stream, another impulse begins to move through the southeastern U.S. and eventually offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. A coastal wave forms with these height falls on Saturday which may introduce additional snowfall to the region. The best chance for accumulations will be west of I-95 given more supportive boundary layer temperatures. Given uncertainty in the timing and position of this system, the rain/snow line will need to be ironed out in future model cycles. Precipitation may linger into Sunday as an Arctic cold front races toward the Eastern Seaboard. It is difficult to say how much snowfall would occur along this advancing boundary with the 12Z GFS being the most robust. The modified Arctic air arrives in earnest by Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. Sunday night`s low temperatures likely drop into the teens east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains with single digits possible elsewhere. For early next week, tranquil conditions are expected for Monday in the wake of the weekend system. A sprawling 1048-mb ridge centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley will extend modified Arctic air into the central/eastern U.S. Monday`s high temperatures should stay at, or below the freezing mark in most locations with teens over the higher mountain peaks. Yet another system is continuing to be monitored with arrival early next Tuesday. Quite a bit of spread exists in the guidance but it continues to bear watching. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The euro is going to be bone dry for wave 1 2 and 3. We all know it so just pray its wrong 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ji said: The euro is going to be bone dry for wave 1 2 and 3. We all know it so just pray its wrong I actually think it’s going to juice up a little. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I actually think it’s going to juice up a little. Maybe. It really has no where to go but up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Snowing at DCA at 24 on 00z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Snowing at DCA at 24 on 00z Euro Still snowing at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Still snowing at 30Oh!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Still snowing at 30 Went north and juiced up. Decent first round for ya'll. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Went north and juiced up. Decent first round for ya'll. Is that snow for DC or the mix crap that the NAM put out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Hopefully that first round really is like that. Might be the only thing we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Is that snow for DC or the mix crap that the NAM put out? Snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Is that snow for DC or the mix crap that the NAM put out? Snow and it's not really close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I actually think it’s going to juice up a little. Damn I’m good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I'm shocked by these euro revelations. I mean who can imagine this kind of craziness. Wow. 7 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Snow and it's not really close. Nice. I’ll take that verbatim and won’t even care about Wave 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Round 2 might be a debacle. Gonna let it run, but starting out south of 12z position. I hope it's just slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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