February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

[yoda]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

These long duration light precipitation events must make NWS pull its hair out. Reasonable that much of the area could get >5”, but over like 48 hrs? 

This is what LWX says in their definition of a WSWatch -- https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#:~:text=A Winter Storm Warning is,AND%2FOR

Winter Storm Watch

A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1)  5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Oh my... that should mean there are some monsters in the indvids

I find this graphic best for showing the "monster" potential. DC-south (really I-81) has the best shot right now if you believe the ens.

[WxUSAF]

^exactly. So we may not hit warning criteria, although it could be pretty close in lots of places. A watch is probably reasonable by tomorrow either way unless something major changes.

[The Ole Bucket]

Harrisonburg jackpot potential would check out..

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Oh my... that should mean there are some monsters in the indvids

 

[jayyy]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro has been a little too far south all winter...this is PERFECT where it is now for an eventual DC to Baltimore jack! 

I was just about to say this.... if I was in the DC-BAL corridor I’d be thrilled to see the Max where it is right now 

[Eskimo Joe]

6/25 12z EPS are whiffs, 10/25 are double digit events, everything else appears to at least a plowable snowfall for BWI, DCA, and IAD.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Oh thank god. 

Being on the northern edge of the snow max at D3 range is where I want to be 10/10 times.

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Being on the northern edge of the snow max at D3 range is where I want to be 10/10 times.

100%! Hell, with this season’s trends, even being just north of the northern edge of the snow Max is a great spot to be in at D3

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

6/25 12z EPS are whiffs, 10/25 are double digit events, everything else appears to at least a plowable snowfall for BWI, DCA, and IAD.

Aren’t there like 50 of those things?

[jayyy]

Euro has some really tasty panels in there. Woof.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Aren’t there like 50 of those things?

I only have access to 25 of the members through my AWIPS thin client. 

[jayyy]

Just now, IronTy said:

This has heartbreak written all over it for me.  Better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all?

I actually think you’re in a great spot for QPF IMO. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Speaking of shifts, I could see Wed trend a small bit south and then Friday trend a bit north. Looks good regardless 

[jayyy]

Wednesday

A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night

Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

This is a lovely looking PZF. Please pan out. 

[Cobalt]

DT seems pretty excited. Either that or his all caps method of typing makes it seem like he's yelling every single word 

[jayyy]

Just now, Cobalt said:

DT seems pretty excited. Either that or his all caps method of typing makes it seem like he's yelling every single word 

Arctic high pressure will remain wedged in along the eastern slopes
of the Appalachains. Meanwhile, low pressure will be sliding by to
our south. Wintry weather is expected to continue into Thursday.
Still some uncertainty in regards to precipitation type for the
duration of the event. Guidance overnight, which now includes
the NAM, have started to trend cooler aloft, leading to a
snowier solution across the region, especially the northern
half. Do expect some mixing of sleet, snow, and freezing rain to
occur across the southern half of the CWA. Will be tough, as
usual, to pin point that mixing line at this point. This system
continues into Friday morning as well, which will make this a
fairly long-duration event.

For the weekend, the pattern remains quite unsettled. An even colder
arctic air mass will become wedged into the region Saturday, setting
the stage for yet another winter weather event. First part of the
day could be dry, though there is some spread there, so will
maintain some chance POPs during the day. The bigger event comes
late Saturday night into Sunday. Details are still fuzzy concerning
temperatures aloft, thus not really sure of precip types at this
point, but am growing increasingly confident in another winter
storm. At this point, would certainly favor our northwestern zones,
given climatology. However, plenty of time for things to change, so
will continue to monitor in the coming days

NWS also talking about nice accumulations. Gotta love these types of moisture feed events in our area. We historically do pretty well with them. Just need to fine tune a few details but 6+ seems quite likely for Wed into Thursday for most 

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

DT seems pretty excited. Either that or his all caps method of typing makes it seem like he's yelling every single word 

How do people still take him seriously? Honestly I’m not bashing him but he is so irresponsibly early/bullish with his calls. Every. Single. Time. His record is appalling if you take him for his word 3-5 days out. 

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

How do people still take him seriously? Honestly I’m not bashing him but he is so irresponsibly early/bullish with his calls. Every. Single. Time. His record is appalling if you take him for his word 3-5 days out. 

Agreed but besides the wording this time he simply attached today’s 12z Euro.

[Amped]

33 minutes ago, IronTy said:

 

Glad to see mostly hits or misses to the south.   Also think there will be a double jackpot for this event. 1 in the western mountains  from upslope flow and the other along the Delmarva from the coastal storm.

[Steve25]

6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

How do people still take him seriously? Honestly I’m not bashing him but he is so irresponsibly early/bullish with his calls. Every. Single. Time. His record is appalling if you take him for his word 3-5 days out. 

I can't get his article out of my head from the 31st-2nd storm last weekend when things seemed to be crumbling for significant snow chances around here and he said he sees a real possibility of Baltimore/DC to get into the 18-24 inch bullseye. 

[DanTheMan]

DT’s like the SREFS, not necessarily great but you dont mind having him onboard either

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I can't get his article out of my head from the 31st-2nd storm last weekend when things seemed to be crumbling for significant snow chances around here and he said he sees a real possibility of Baltimore/DC to get into the 18-24 inch bullseye. 

Right??? He’s a salesperson. Not a met. 

[WEATHER53]

How cold is max cold period?

[Steve25]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

How cold is max cold period?

Thought I saw someone say lows near 0 and highs in the mid teens for one day early next week. 

[clskinsfan]

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

How cold is max cold period?

[yoda]

LWX afternoon disco re threat

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure will build toward the north Tuesday
night, and this will allow for dry conditions to continue.
However, it will turn out chillier again with a northerly flow
ahead of the building high.

The pattern turns active with an increased threat for wintry
weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. Shortwave and jetmax
energy in the in the southern stream of the jet will be passing
through the area in the nearly zonal flow aloft. However,
southern stream moisture should get drawn into the area during
this time. This setup combined with the fact that Canadian high
pressure will remain entrenched to our north supports the
increased threat for wintry weather. Have leaned a little toward
the models with the colder solutions given the fact that the
cold high pressure will be nearby. This suggests that a bulk of
the wintry precipitation may fall as snow along with the
potential for significant snowfall accumulations. However, mixed
precipitation is still possible and ice accumulations from
freezing rain are possible as well, and some guidance does still
show more of a mixed p-type event. Will continue to monitor the
latest trends, but the biggest story is that wintry
precipitation is likely and significant wintry precipitation is
possible and it would likely impact the Wednesday evening
commute and also into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of high pressure will linger and remained wedged along the
eastern slopes of the Appalachians Thursday and Thursday night. This
will allow for accumulating snow to continue across the northern
half of our CWA and accumulating mixed precipitation of sleet,
freezing rain, and rain across the southern half of our CWA.

[LP08]

Nam will nudge South looking at HR48.  Wave a little flatter and confluence a bit better in the NE.

[WEATHER53]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Thanks and the extreme cold has been pushed back. Delayed but not denied is generally a disaster for snow but not as much for very cold surges although it’s a neutral sign at best. Looks like rollover cold also where it plunges  into Ohio Valley and west and then rolls over mountains and onto  us in a modified state as opposed to strong cold which plunges directly down upon  us from NY State and PA .

 

[Cobalt]

Acceptable