WVsnowlover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Somebody from Fredericksburg to PSU land will do well. But at this point i think you could throw a dart in that range and have as good a chance as the models. I know where I’m aiming my dart. I'll side with climo here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Somebody has to post that image on DT's Facebook page. I would but he blocked me 5 years ago. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Canadian is pretty weak sauce wrt wave 2.. it didn't really go south, but it's just not as juiced. At the very least it seems like the jogs south have halted for that. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 You know we have made fun of this but it’s highly unusual to not have at least a WWA up this close to the start of an event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This seems loltastic can’t hear you from underneath the 10” label/s 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Tbh I think the models are significantly divergent. Maybe I’m wrong though. But to me the differences are utterly enormous given our timeframe. The mesos and globals are at serious odds with each other, and there are differences within THOSE groups too. You have to think about what kind of event this is. Think about a stalled front in spring with gulf moisture getting drawn in and bumping up against it. It's very hard for models to get all the little nuances right. This applies to any season as these types of precipitation events are common. Mostly in the spring. Location, timing, and amounts are always uncertain. That's why I keep saying to just worry about your yard staying in the general idea. Which all of ours are. It's a chips fall kind of deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Man just completely smoked down here on sat/sun with freezing rain on GFS. Would be lights out verbatim. I've been barking at that threat for some in this forum with this pattern. Screams ice somewhere 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The CMC is a legit snowstorm for the weekend. Both days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I've been barking at that threat for some in this forum with this pattern. Screams ice somewhere Looks like a nice hit for you on the 00Z GFS. Hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet. It is getting MUCH better. Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago. But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details. Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave. But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range. That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations. We don’t have ridiculous expectations. We do seek competency. You are absolutely right and glad to hear you say it-The Models Try To Do Too Much. So, do less or do different Want nice atmosphere when Obs time starts so will leave it at that. But, when things slow down will release a thread with detailed, rational and verified wholesale different method of modeling. I don’t just bitch, I offer suggestions and possible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The CMC is a legit snowstorm for the weekend. Both days. I thought that was more for areas NW of DC though tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I know it's a week away.. but next Tuesday storm looks mighty tastyyy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I thought that was more for areas NW if DC though tbh Yeah. It looks like the mix line runs right through the city. I should have mentioned it. But of course I was preoccupied with my own yard. CMC is nice with the first wave. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Somebody has to post that image on DT's Facebook page. I would but he blocked me 5 years ago. I’d be happy to lol. What’s his FB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You have to think about what kind of event this is. Think about a stalled front in spring with gulf moisture getting drawn in and bumping up against it. It's very hard for models to get all the little nuances right. This applies to any season as these types of precipitation events are common. Mostly in the spring. Location, timing, and amounts are always uncertain. That's why I keep saying to just worry about your yard staying in the general idea. Which all of ours are. It's a chips fall kind of deal. No I get it. But I’m not talking about my backyard. I still find it fascinating that this is so difficult for us given how much progress we’ve made. And this of course comes from my own ignorance regarding the backend of how these models function. edit also that our professional Mets can make such good calls given these divergences. CWG was fantastic for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, ILIKERAKE said: I know it's a week away.. but next Tuesday storm looks mighty tastyyy Lol don’t even start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We don’t have ridiculous expectations. We do seek competency. You are absolutely right and glad to hear you say it-The Models Try To Do Too Much. That's not what he's saying at all. The entire forecasting field would be lost beyond a few days without them. It's hobbiests that expect waaaay too much out of them. They are tools. And damn good ones. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I’d be happy to lol. What’s his FB? I appreciate his long-range forecasting, but his snow maps typically reflect his Richmond bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I’d be happy to lol. What’s his FB? dt wxrisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, MDRandy said: I appreciate his long-range forecasting, but his snow maps typically reflect his Richmond bias. lol He rarely has Richmond in play.. I feel hes pretty decent with his maps. better than average at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, PCT_ATC said: lol He rarely has Richmond in play.. I feel hes pretty decent with his maps. better than average at least Maybe so but he will hug the hell out of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Where does everyone get cmc info so fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Maybe so but he will hug the hell out of the euro Which usually works out long-range wise, not so much short-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Where does everyone get cmc info so fast? TT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021021000&fh=60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very cold at the surface too. Unusual. A glacier on top of whatever fall thurs/fri would be pretty awesome. I love that stuff 35 degree highs will melt 4” snow in 2 days but those glacial packs two or three times as long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Mine is only out to 114 and people already talking about next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I’m not the biggest DT fan. Dude can be a jerk. However for Thursday into Friday (second wave) only the gfs doesn’t have RVA and suburbs with the most snow. Currently. 10”??? Probably too much- but even if you drop 30-40% off that, then you also have to do that to the entire map. Again since there were like 10 posts about his map, I wanted to weigh in also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Mine is only out to 114 and people already talking about next week. For the cmc the black and white maps roll out around 11 thru day 6, and then stormvista starts rolling pretty quick after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10:50 map Update from NWS. slightly lowered totals along 95 and to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This is super childish but I couldn't help it. Check out my comment to DT's post for some laughs: https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Also shout out to WinterWxLvr for the meme hookup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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