WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Am I looking at the RGEM right? Can’t be that wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Really nice thump from the RGEM with the first wave. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Am I looking at the RGEM right? Can’t be that wet Definitely sticking to its 18z guns. Surprised the NAM went its way and not the other way around for these 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitecheddar Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 To be honest.. after watching everyone of the models.. run after run.. day after day with all the adjustments that happen after each run. You could drop a pin on any model and that outcome would have the same chance of being right as the one beside it. All these waves so close together just seems model dont know how to handle them in our current setup. But im a betting man and as long as this can continue for another few weeks I'd put my money on everyone in here getting hit at least once eventually. Just the sooner the better to calm the nerves of some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 RGEM is bringing back the ice threat for Central VA. Oh no.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Great precip on the RGEM but it also has the warm nose that the NAM advertised. Even gets Leesburg and Winchester briefly above 0c at 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Whitecheddar said: To be honest.. after watching everyone of the models.. run after run.. day after day with all the adjustments that happen after each run. You could drop a pin on any model and that outcome would have the same chance of being right as the one beside it. All these waves so close together just seems model dont know how to handle them in our current setup. But im a betting man and as long as this can continue for another few weeks I'd put my money on everyone in here getting hit at least once eventually. Just the sooner the better to calm the nerves of some. I'm not so confident this is going to continue for another few weeks. I think we've got this week and first half of next week for a ripe setup. Heard things like the AO, NAO, and PNA are headed in rough directions after that. Also with days getting longer, sun angle, yada yada. Hopefully we all cash in with one of these next couple events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Really nice thump from the RGEM with the first wave. well...if that is wave 1 screw wave 2. DC can have all of wave 2 then. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The RGEM is doing the same thing the GFS did and expanding the precip shield with wave 2. The heavy stuff is still south of DC. But everyone sees flakes from it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Whitecheddar said: To be honest.. after watching everyone of the models.. run after run.. day after day with all the adjustments that happen after each run. You could drop a pin on any model and that outcome would have the same chance of being right as the one beside it. All these waves so close together just seems model dont know how to handle them in our current setup. But im a betting man and as long as this can continue for another few weeks I'd put my money on everyone in here getting hit at least once eventually. Just the sooner the better to calm the nerves of some. This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet. It is getting MUCH better. Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago. But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details. Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave. But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range. That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Whole thing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Whole thing. Sold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ICON looks good for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Sold!! If it's all snow then yes me too lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON looks good for wave 2 Doesn't have the crazy QPF that put down a wide swath of 1+ inches, but since that was almost certainly not going to happen anyway, yeah a pretty good run. 0.5-0.7 QPF for most of the subforum after the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 38 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Man you were just playing the violin on the titanic 20 minutes ago I was? Because Im looking for that post and can't find it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal. Think this is true but the euro is a little outside of that range. And 75 miles is pretty big in an east west event made even more so by the fact that it’s a narrow stripe to begin with. That’s more than a degree latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ICON is a pretty big step back on qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This seems loltastic 5 9 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitecheddar Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I'm not so confident this is going to continue for another few weeks. I think we've got this week and first half of next week for a ripe setup. Heard things like the AO, NAO, and PNA are headed in rough directions after that. Also with days getting longer, sun angle, yada yada. Hopefully we all cash in with one of these next couple events. I def agree with you but at the same time we have seen the pattern in the 14 day frame show a change coming only to recharge the whole pattern as it gets closer just another example of the models making its best guess and us thinking oh no we only have this 7 day window to cash in but it turns out the recharge makes it an even more favorable condition for us. Like compare now to 2 weeks ago.. We finally have at least a little cold air in the mix. Who knows 14 days from now the block might position itself perfectly and we get that monster Miller A from the gulf. I guess that's what makes this all our hobby. The unknown is real. 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet. It is getting MUCH better. Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago. But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details. Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave. But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range. That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations. Well said especially in setups like this one that only happens a few times in a decade. Puts even more uncertainty in that 5 day window because the models are just supercomputers with what has happened in the past making that best guess for the future. But when we aren't in that simple pattern any one variable can push a jackpot Miller A hybrid at 0z to a suppressed shortwave down in Georgia the next. And us weenies feed off of the digital snow but we really need to just stay positive follow the trends and hope for a little luck. Just my opinion of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Trend north on HRRR for wave 1 approach has been real this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal. Yes and no. Look at the difference in precip for VA between the 18z GFS and 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal. 100% this post... but even with synoptic scale storms I've noticed the last few years a level of expectation that can't possibly be met. Expecting to pin down exactly where the rain snow line will be from 100 hours away. Or where the northern fringe is or where a deform band will set up to within a few miles. By the time the storm comes people are exhausted because they started trying to nowcast those details when it was still 7 days away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: This seems loltastic First guess? When does he plan on making an actual forecast? After the storm? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 100% this post... but even with synoptic scale storms I've noticed the last few years a level of expectation that can't possibly be met. Expecting to pin down exactly where the rain snow line will be from 100 hours away. Or where the northern fringe is or where a deform band will set up to within a few miles. By the time the storm comes people are exhausted because they started trying to nowcast those details when it was still 7 days away. See my post though. Euro and GFS have totally different precip jackpots. Almost 1” QPF difference in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: First guess? When does he plan on making an actual forecast? After the storm? Saturday during our sleet bomb! Really though, I’d love this forecast if I thought it had even a 5% chance of verifying 10” for mby. With the preponderance of guidance all moving away from high qpf/snow totals, I’m not sure how useful this type of first guess is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: See my post though. Euro and GFS have totally different precip jackpots. Almost 1” QPF difference in some spots. The euro is pretty much on its own though with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away now. The meso models all disagree and so do the rest of the globals. That is a pretty strong case the euro is just off with wave 1. Wave 2 the euro is a little south of other guidance but its really wave 1 being so dry on the euro that causes the extreme difference in the total storm representation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 100% this post... but even with synoptic scale storms I've noticed the last few years a level of expectation that can't possibly be met. Expecting to pin down exactly where the rain snow line will be from 100 hours away. Or where the northern fringe is or where a deform band will set up to within a few miles. By the time the storm comes people are exhausted because they started trying to nowcast those details when it was still 7 days away. But we aren’t talking about 100 hours away. And we aren’t talking about one model and it’s variance. We are talking about the large disparity between models. How would you feel about a hurricane landfall forecast that was wrong by 75 miles 24 hours out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The euro is pretty much on its own though with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away now. The meso models all disagree and so do the rest of the globals. That is a pretty strong case the euro is just off with wave 1. Wave 2 the euro is a little south of other guidance but its really wave 1 being so dry on the euro that causes the extreme difference in the total storm representation. And to be fair we don’t know it’s wrong yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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