Whitecheddar Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I'm not so confident this is going to continue for another few weeks. I think we've got this week and first half of next week for a ripe setup. Heard things like the AO, NAO, and PNA are headed in rough directions after that. Also with days getting longer, sun angle, yada yada. Hopefully we all cash in with one of these next couple events. I def agree with you but at the same time we have seen the pattern in the 14 day frame show a change coming only to recharge the whole pattern as it gets closer just another example of the models making its best guess and us thinking oh no we only have this 7 day window to cash in but it turns out the recharge makes it an even more favorable condition for us. Like compare now to 2 weeks ago.. We finally have at least a little cold air in the mix. Who knows 14 days from now the block might position itself perfectly and we get that monster Miller A from the gulf. I guess that's what makes this all our hobby. The unknown is real. 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet. It is getting MUCH better. Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago. But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details. Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave. But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range. That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations. Well said especially in setups like this one that only happens a few times in a decade. Puts even more uncertainty in that 5 day window because the models are just supercomputers with what has happened in the past making that best guess for the future. But when we aren't in that simple pattern any one variable can push a jackpot Miller A hybrid at 0z to a suppressed shortwave down in Georgia the next. And us weenies feed off of the digital snow but we really need to just stay positive follow the trends and hope for a little luck. Just my opinion of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Trend north on HRRR for wave 1 approach has been real this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal. Yes and no. Look at the difference in precip for VA between the 18z GFS and 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal. 100% this post... but even with synoptic scale storms I've noticed the last few years a level of expectation that can't possibly be met. Expecting to pin down exactly where the rain snow line will be from 100 hours away. Or where the northern fringe is or where a deform band will set up to within a few miles. By the time the storm comes people are exhausted because they started trying to nowcast those details when it was still 7 days away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: This seems loltastic First guess? When does he plan on making an actual forecast? After the storm? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 100% this post... but even with synoptic scale storms I've noticed the last few years a level of expectation that can't possibly be met. Expecting to pin down exactly where the rain snow line will be from 100 hours away. Or where the northern fringe is or where a deform band will set up to within a few miles. By the time the storm comes people are exhausted because they started trying to nowcast those details when it was still 7 days away. See my post though. Euro and GFS have totally different precip jackpots. Almost 1” QPF difference in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: First guess? When does he plan on making an actual forecast? After the storm? Saturday during our sleet bomb! Really though, I’d love this forecast if I thought it had even a 5% chance of verifying 10” for mby. With the preponderance of guidance all moving away from high qpf/snow totals, I’m not sure how useful this type of first guess is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: See my post though. Euro and GFS have totally different precip jackpots. Almost 1” QPF difference in some spots. The euro is pretty much on its own though with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away now. The meso models all disagree and so do the rest of the globals. That is a pretty strong case the euro is just off with wave 1. Wave 2 the euro is a little south of other guidance but its really wave 1 being so dry on the euro that causes the extreme difference in the total storm representation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 100% this post... but even with synoptic scale storms I've noticed the last few years a level of expectation that can't possibly be met. Expecting to pin down exactly where the rain snow line will be from 100 hours away. Or where the northern fringe is or where a deform band will set up to within a few miles. By the time the storm comes people are exhausted because they started trying to nowcast those details when it was still 7 days away. But we aren’t talking about 100 hours away. And we aren’t talking about one model and it’s variance. We are talking about the large disparity between models. How would you feel about a hurricane landfall forecast that was wrong by 75 miles 24 hours out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The euro is pretty much on its own though with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away now. The meso models all disagree and so do the rest of the globals. That is a pretty strong case the euro is just off with wave 1. Wave 2 the euro is a little south of other guidance but its really wave 1 being so dry on the euro that causes the extreme difference in the total storm representation. And to be fair we don’t know it’s wrong yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 You guys ever see the thickness lines look like latitude lines all the way across the country the way they do on the gfs 6 hr map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: See my post though. Euro and GFS have totally different precip jackpots. Almost 1” QPF difference in some spots. It's for the same reason. This isnt really a synoptic event and very hard to get qpf right. If this was a warm spring boundary event the qpf spread would be even bigger but nobody would care. It's basically a slow moving/stalled front that wobbles around with a moisture feed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The GFS is rolling out slower than my 1985 Datsun. At 12 it appears there is less cold push. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But we aren’t talking about 100 hours away. And we aren’t talking about one model and it’s variance. We are talking about the large disparity between models. How would you feel about a hurricane landfall forecast that was wrong by 75 miles 24 hours out? is the guidance that divergent...or are we just giving too much weight to ONE MODEL. Yea I know its "the king" but its prone to errors just like the others. While better its scores are not so superior that it should be taken against all other evidence. Right now it seems to be completely on its own with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away. That is a big deal because we are now in range that the 0z meso guidance coming out should be given some significant weight and it all agrees with a more north wave 1 like the GFS/ICON/GGEM. The euro is a little south with wave 2...but not THAT much, its the differences wave 1 that make it look so crazy off...and plus if we cannot trust its representation of wave 1 why can we trust what it is showing wave 2? IMO its likely the euro is just having an issue here. If we ignore it...the rest of guidance isn't really that far apart from each other imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Gfs has 0.15 in dc through 1pm Thursday. That, won’t get it done for wave 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS is drier but nowhere near as dry as the Euro still. Wave 2 more north than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 One of the big two is going down hard in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 DT has to be sweating the GFS. Dont know how CHO is getting 10 inches off of .3 qpf. Saturday storm incoming on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The gfs certainly doesn’t look like DTs map that’s for sure. Zero snow south of EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFSv16 jackpots DC in wave 1. Thin horizontal strip of 0.5-0.6 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gfs has 0.15 in dc through 1pm Thursday. That, won’t get it done for wave 1 New GFS wildly disagrees lol. There's quite the difference in output for wave 1 to say the least 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: DT has to be sweating the GFS. Dont know how CHO is getting 10 inches off of .3 qpf. When did east of C'ville turn into a desert? What's up with the GFS streaming precip to just west of C'ville and then pretty much drying it out? Weird depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: New GFS wildly disagrees lol. There's quite the difference in output for wave 1 to say the least Well so far in the 00z suite for wave 1 seems like its NAM/RGEM/PARA GFS vs GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WB 0Z GFS through Friday 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 New GFS looks a lot like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS has the Saturday sleet bomb as well. It is a really weird run. Snows on Winchester for hours as the storm approaches. I would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Is LWX going straight to advisories/warnings tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like a big ice storm is in play for Central Virginia..... GFS and RGEM are showing significant ice accumulations. Wondering what AKQ will out out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: GFS has the Saturday sleet bomb as well. Very cold at the surface too. Unusual. A glacier on top of whatever fall thurs/fri would be pretty awesome. I love that stuff 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS through Friday 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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