clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: 12k NAM wants to keep scattered precip in the area from Friday until the Saturday system.. are we sure the Saturday storm isn't just wave 3??? Saturday storm is juicy. I would think it starts with a burst of snow over to heavy sleet. Looks like fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Not sure if anybody has mentioned, but SREF has been trending up for DCA all day. Last 4 runs below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Saturday storm is juicy. I would think it starts with a burst of snow over to heavy sleet. Looks like fun. Honestly mix is cool with me. Just hate when we go to rain, especially if it ends as rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 12k NAM wants to keep scattered precip in the area from Friday until the Saturday system.. are we sure the Saturday storm isn't just wave 3??? These are all just waves along the boundary that has a ton of potential energy due to the extreme temperature contrast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Saturday storm is juicy. I would think it starts with a burst of snow over to heavy sleet. Looks like fun. That's too much mix for Central VA. Do not need to be without power going into the week for those who do not have a whole house generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Not sure if anybody has mentioned, but SREF has been trending up for DCA all day. Last 4 runs below: Damn 3.5 still pretty low for both events. Surprised because SREFs seemed to be doing better than that. Unless I’m reading this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Honestly mix is cool with me. Just hate when we go to rain, especially if it ends as rain. Some serious rates incoming as modelled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Some serious rates incoming as modelled. That’s what I want. I don’t care what form it’s in. I’m just sick of trying to will a radar to fill in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 RGEM out to 21. More juice with the first wave. Looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'd rather score with wave 1 instead of waiting for wave 2 to do something How much mix did it show for jyo? According to the site I look at mostly all snow maybe a tad amount of sleet but nothing significant on the 12k nam for jyo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Am I looking at the RGEM right? Can’t be that wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Really nice thump from the RGEM with the first wave. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Am I looking at the RGEM right? Can’t be that wet Definitely sticking to its 18z guns. Surprised the NAM went its way and not the other way around for these 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitecheddar Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 To be honest.. after watching everyone of the models.. run after run.. day after day with all the adjustments that happen after each run. You could drop a pin on any model and that outcome would have the same chance of being right as the one beside it. All these waves so close together just seems model dont know how to handle them in our current setup. But im a betting man and as long as this can continue for another few weeks I'd put my money on everyone in here getting hit at least once eventually. Just the sooner the better to calm the nerves of some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 RGEM is bringing back the ice threat for Central VA. Oh no.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Great precip on the RGEM but it also has the warm nose that the NAM advertised. Even gets Leesburg and Winchester briefly above 0c at 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Whitecheddar said: To be honest.. after watching everyone of the models.. run after run.. day after day with all the adjustments that happen after each run. You could drop a pin on any model and that outcome would have the same chance of being right as the one beside it. All these waves so close together just seems model dont know how to handle them in our current setup. But im a betting man and as long as this can continue for another few weeks I'd put my money on everyone in here getting hit at least once eventually. Just the sooner the better to calm the nerves of some. I'm not so confident this is going to continue for another few weeks. I think we've got this week and first half of next week for a ripe setup. Heard things like the AO, NAO, and PNA are headed in rough directions after that. Also with days getting longer, sun angle, yada yada. Hopefully we all cash in with one of these next couple events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Really nice thump from the RGEM with the first wave. well...if that is wave 1 screw wave 2. DC can have all of wave 2 then. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The RGEM is doing the same thing the GFS did and expanding the precip shield with wave 2. The heavy stuff is still south of DC. But everyone sees flakes from it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Whitecheddar said: To be honest.. after watching everyone of the models.. run after run.. day after day with all the adjustments that happen after each run. You could drop a pin on any model and that outcome would have the same chance of being right as the one beside it. All these waves so close together just seems model dont know how to handle them in our current setup. But im a betting man and as long as this can continue for another few weeks I'd put my money on everyone in here getting hit at least once eventually. Just the sooner the better to calm the nerves of some. This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet. It is getting MUCH better. Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago. But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details. Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave. But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range. That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Whole thing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Whole thing. Sold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ICON looks good for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Sold!! If it's all snow then yes me too lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON looks good for wave 2 Doesn't have the crazy QPF that put down a wide swath of 1+ inches, but since that was almost certainly not going to happen anyway, yeah a pretty good run. 0.5-0.7 QPF for most of the subforum after the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 38 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Man you were just playing the violin on the titanic 20 minutes ago I was? Because Im looking for that post and can't find it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal. Think this is true but the euro is a little outside of that range. And 75 miles is pretty big in an east west event made even more so by the fact that it’s a narrow stripe to begin with. That’s more than a degree latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ICON is a pretty big step back on qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This seems loltastic 5 9 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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