WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: huh? When did I make any prediction? There was a post that the EPS was less suppressive. I made the observation that it trended south with both waves. It did. Someone kind of questioned that so I posted proof. I made no prediction at all. Cool. Couldn’t necessarily see that in your post. It may well end up right. But something seems off here. The biggest flag for me is that the NWS and HPC don’t seem to be weighing the euro heavily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Quicker onset tomorrow evening. Warm nose pushing north to dc at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WB 12K 0Z v 18Z 10 pm Wed. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM still holding on to the warm layer idea for round 1 up to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Quicker onset tomorrow evening. Warm nose pushing north to dc at 27. Round 1 too north? Round 2 too south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1am Th. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Cool. Couldn’t necessarily see that in your post. It may well end up right. But something seems off here. The biggest flag for me is that the NWS and HPC don’t seem to be weighing the euro heavily. I don't know what to make of it honestly. I was never buying into the idea that this was a 12-18" snowstorm like the euro was indicating 48 hours ago. That seemed off. I said that once or twice but I didn't want to take a crap all over the party so I mostly kept it to myself. But I was expecting it to come back down to earth and show a more reasonable 4-8" type storm. But now it has swung to the other extreme. The GFS has certainly been less jumpy with this but it has been subtly trending south also. I still think what I did several days ago...that this has 4-8" snow written all over it...but where exactly the focal point for that ends up is the catch. I guess I favor the further north guidance but seeing the NAM/Euro so far south with the more significant second wave really is troublesome. Hopefully as I am typing this the NAM trends north a little and that would make me feel better about tossing the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4am 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 First wave is much jucier this run. 00z 18z: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Let’s hope that warm nose is wrong for the dc area folks. Certainly wetter fist wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Huge bump in QPF for the first wave so far, but also lots of mixing/sleet at DC latitudes and rain further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 am Th. 0Z v 18Z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM seems way too amped with that wave, I see no way a warm nose makes it to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I suppose this could be overcome with rates. It’s not a terribly large warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Hopefully this isn’t the case of the NAM having that one run that’s just too juiced close in. But that’s at least encouraging for Baltimore. Stays all snow up here at least 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 am first wave pulling out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Hopefully this isn’t the case of the NAM having that one run that’s just too juiced close in. But that’s at least encouraging for Baltimore. Stays all snow up here at least Yeah important to remember that the NAM was holding on to a better storm for us just this past weekend for longer than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM. We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3km probably isn't gonna be as crazy as the 12km but still a marked improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 10 am first wave pulling out. That seems fairly significant to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM. We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. Yeah, if I had to choose I’d take the .25 QPF on the euro at 30 degrees over the 0.8 on the NAM of sleet/white rain for round 1. At 42 wave 2 is south, maybe it can make up some ground though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM. We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. Yeah, it's been really persistent about that for awhile now. I hope that's not necessarily correlated with the now notably higher QPF amounts (for first wave)...i.e., we can only get higher precip if we get the mix around this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Such model chaos. Euro 1st wave weak and dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: That seems fairly significant to me Same. Almost an inch of qpf. Before it was like, what, .4 something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Slightly better heights with less suppression over the NE. Wave 2 looks like it will be a little bit north to my eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Wave 2 bringing the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Unfortunately right in the NAM wheelhouse. IIRC it was also the first model to introduce a changeover for the big storm on 1/31-2/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3KM NAM has a nasty dry slot in the middle of it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Chin up y’all, we’re gonna will this son of a bitch north. This next frame is like the 34th most important frame of our lives ETA. Looks like the bleeding south has stopped 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM. We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. It's a pretty thin and high up layer...so at least when it does mix its probably sleet/snow mix. That looks like several inches of snow and a significant sleet mixed in there also...which can be fun. It's better then a couple inches of snow and then dry slot or freezing rain imo. There is also the chance the NAM is being to aggressive with that but just saying I don't think the NAM is a complete disaster for DC but if it can be just 1 degree too warm in the mid layers...youre looking at a great THUMP. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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