NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a very interesting map. It is showing 8-10” of snow in portions of Ky that don’t have a single flake of snow forecast for the next three days. That is very interesting. Stormvista's EPS maps are... interesting. Same map from WxBell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Stormvista's EPS maps are... interesting. Same map from WxBell. Can you show me the map with Ky on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Sref anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you show me the map with Ky on it? Pretty clear differences in snow algorithm. I'd lean WxBell's since it seems grounded in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a very interesting map. It is showing 8-10” of snow in portions of Ky that don’t have a single flake of snow forecast for the next three days. That is very interesting. I think I’ve read somewhere that storm vista snow maps count everything falling at 32 and below snow so it catches a ton of sleet in those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Sref anyone? more north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 HRRR is looking fairly solid thru 29. 1” on the ground already for most of us at midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty clear differences in snow algorithm. I'd lean WxBell's since it seems grounded in reality. That looks more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: HRRR is looking fairly solid thru 29. 1” on the ground already for most of us at midnight. If it just wasn’t such a crap model. It’s ok about 6 hours out but after that ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 more north.Well then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 We're going to will this SOB back 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 26 minutes ago, Ji said: 27 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Stealing eps from Mike Thomas's live stream That's not as bad as psu made it out to be This is a big reduction for 6 hours. But you really want to cry to back to a run 48 hours ago when it had 1” qpf up to the PA line and ~1.2 qpf for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is a big reduction for 6 hours. But you really want to cry to back to a run 48 hours ago when it had 1” qpf up to the PA line and ~1.2 qpf for you. You are placing a lot of faith in one model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This is a big reduction for 6 hours. But you really want to cry to back to a run 48 hours ago when it had 1” qpf up to the PA line and ~1.2 qpf for you. The euro took us from 36 inches to 6 inches 2 weeks ago. This ain't nothin bri 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a very interesting map. It is showing 8-10” of snow in portions of Ky that don’t have a single flake of snow forecast for the next three days. That is very interesting. 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: In fact that map has 10” of snow in places that aren’t even being forecast to have any frozen at all. I don’t think the NWS forecasters down there have lost their minds. There is a reason that the euro is not being weighed into these forecasts. I have deduced that those stormvista max res EPS snowfall maps are often so much higher then wxbell on the southern edge of snowfall zones is because it counts freezing rain as 10-1 snowfall. People didn't notice but last year the wxbell maps stopped doing that when they updated and that is why the ensemble means on wxbell arent as crazy stupid ridiculous high as they used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: more north. It’s a wetter run to our west in a major way. The entire precip shield is more north as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I have deduced that those stormvista max res EPS snowfall maps are often so much higher then wxbell on the southern edge of snowfall zones is because it counts freezing rain as 10-1 snowfall. People didn't notice but last year the wxbell maps stopped doing that when they updated and that is why the ensemble means on wxbell arent as crazy stupid ridiculous high as they used to be. That has to be the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Every model combined has snow as far south as the NC border and as far North as the Pennsylvania border....those are your edges....now we refine down to the details tomorrow clearly somewhere between there it will snow decently perhaps a lot of places between those edges 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You are placing a lot of faith in one model huh? When did I make any prediction? There was a post that the EPS was less suppressive. I made the observation that it trended south with both waves. It did. Someone kind of questioned that so I posted proof. I made no prediction at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It’s early and subtle but through 21, Nam is less suppressive than 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: huh? When did I make any prediction? There was a post that the EPS was less suppressive. I made the observation that it trended south with both waves. It did. Someone kind of questioned that so I posted proof. I made no prediction at all. Cool. Couldn’t necessarily see that in your post. It may well end up right. But something seems off here. The biggest flag for me is that the NWS and HPC don’t seem to be weighing the euro heavily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Quicker onset tomorrow evening. Warm nose pushing north to dc at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WB 12K 0Z v 18Z 10 pm Wed. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM still holding on to the warm layer idea for round 1 up to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Quicker onset tomorrow evening. Warm nose pushing north to dc at 27. Round 1 too north? Round 2 too south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1am Th. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Cool. Couldn’t necessarily see that in your post. It may well end up right. But something seems off here. The biggest flag for me is that the NWS and HPC don’t seem to be weighing the euro heavily. I don't know what to make of it honestly. I was never buying into the idea that this was a 12-18" snowstorm like the euro was indicating 48 hours ago. That seemed off. I said that once or twice but I didn't want to take a crap all over the party so I mostly kept it to myself. But I was expecting it to come back down to earth and show a more reasonable 4-8" type storm. But now it has swung to the other extreme. The GFS has certainly been less jumpy with this but it has been subtly trending south also. I still think what I did several days ago...that this has 4-8" snow written all over it...but where exactly the focal point for that ends up is the catch. I guess I favor the further north guidance but seeing the NAM/Euro so far south with the more significant second wave really is troublesome. Hopefully as I am typing this the NAM trends north a little and that would make me feel better about tossing the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4am 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 First wave is much jucier this run. 00z 18z: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Let’s hope that warm nose is wrong for the dc area folks. Certainly wetter fist wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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