Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'd call this the first wave. Pretty weak sauce. Looks a tab better for Baltimore but pretty insignificant anyway. Hopefully good for a couple of warmup inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Looks a tab better for Baltimore but pretty insignificant anyway. Hopefully good for a couple of warmup inches. Warmup inches to the next inch we get over 24 hours? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM wins again (possibly, let’s see) and the third time this winter Lucy has pulled her football. At least this time I was prepared. Another 3-4 inches over 48 hours, I’m not gonna complain, at least it’s been nice to always have something on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Bump, because panic from some. I wouldn’t say it’s time to panic but it’s certainly trending towards a less impactful event. The good part is Friday is still far enough out that it’s not set in stone. Let’s hope the trends stop/reverse and we can score something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looking at the snow maps, less amped might be the best way to put it. Not sure it really moved all that south... just not nearly as impressive. 18z 12z The euro and ensembles took us from 13 inches to 3 in one day....2 days before the event. I don't buy it..the euro is acting like a jv model 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Didn't Ji rule say to take the model with the lowest totals and that the one that would verify? Seems like a legit strategy at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Ha, euro has a bit of that CVA precipitation hole. Caving to the GFS? Euro is lighter than all other guidance with wave 1. Pretty dramatically so. Maybe it’s right, but it’s by itself right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Is there an 18z UKIE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Assuming a 17/1 ratio per Kuchera, DC-area could get close to 5". Limiting the upper bound to a more realistic 12/1 yields 3-4". Of course, temperatures may reach the mid 30s on Thursday afternoon during the lull. So we could lose a bit due to melting by the time of the 2nd wave, which is forecast to drop 0.2-0.3" of snow per hour - for several hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I can’t wait to see what a lull in a lull looks like 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I can’t wait to see what a lull in a lull looks like that thing in the sky starts to poke through, melting our .09 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Well that Deescalated quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I can’t wait to see what a lull in a lull looks like 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looking at the snow maps, less amped might be the best way to put it. Not sure it really moved all that south... just not nearly as impressive. There is a limit to how far south the cold can get given the latitude at which the wave is crossing at. The cold can't penetrate south of the actual wave since that will ride the boundary...and to press the wave south...force it to sink, at that point there is so much suppression you are squashing it and that is what is happening now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Well that Deescalated quickly! Indeed and it’s still not that much colder at the surface. Man we could f-up canned soup. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ece Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Hopefully this sneak peek going by in baltimore county isn't how the whole thing goes...! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a limit to how far south the cold can get given the latitude at which the wave is crossing at. The cold can't penetrate south of the actual wave since that will ride the boundary...and to press the wave south...force it to sink, at that point there is so much suppression you are squashing it and that is what is happening now. Was thinking about this earlier. How often is it that a weak wave gets pressed so intensely and manages to produce? Models for a while wanted to say you could just move the whole event south no biggie, just changes who jackpots. But in reality a weak wave getting this rough treatment from the north isn't going to just move south. It's going to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 There’s a reason the HPC has the heavier snow further north for round two. I don’t know the reason but they do. I’m riding that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Euro only caves to the NAM when it’s bad for us. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Wait what did the euro show for the second wave...? Haven’t seen anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Eps has a sharper look at hr 36 fwiw . Less confluence. I know we r close in but it's still worth a look Damn is it still rolling out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Eps has a sharper look at hr 36 fwiw . Less confluence. I know we r close in but it's still worth a look I think it matters for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Since these are similar boundary waves might be pertinent to consider the NAM just schooled EVERYTHING else on the wave to our north today... it was well north of all other guidance at just 24 hours lead time and scored the coup. Something to consider once this gets inside short range...wave 1 is almost there but wave 2 is still not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps has a sharper look at hr 36 fwiw . Less confluence. I know we r close in but it's still worth a look The 18z EPS still ended up south and weaker with both waves and a significant decrease, again for the 8th straight run, in snow mean from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I feel somewhat more optimistic given that the cold high in Iowa is fading while the parent high, a monster 1062 mb center up in the NWT, is slowly pushing south. That should stop the southward push on the wave train and when I look at the RGEM output the precip shield looks realistic but the thickness and thermal profiles look unrealistic (too far north) which would argue for more of the depicted precip to fall as snow. Hence an early call of 4-7" for the I-95, max could be a bit south of the DC-BWI-ILG corridor at 5-9" but I don't think it would be pushed as far south as RIC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Euro's cake is baked if it shifts now then it will be a ridiculous bust it might as well hang tough with the solution it is stuck on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Stealing eps from Mike Thomas's live stream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 18z EPS still ended up south and weaker with both waves and a significant decrease, again for the 8th straight run, in snow mean from previous run. Lol. We will bounce back at 00z....or Bounce out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I feel somewhat more optimistic given that the cold high in Iowa is fading while the parent high, a monster 1062 mb center up in the NWT, is slowly pushing south. That should stop the southward push on the wave train and when I look at the RGEM output the precip shield looks realistic but the thickness and thermal profiles look unrealistic (too far north) which would argue for more of the depicted precip to fall as snow. Hence an early call of 4-7" for the I-95, max could be a bit south of the DC-BWI-ILG corridor at 5-9" but I don't think it would be pushed as far south as RIC. Weren’t you calling for 12 or 18” last weekend? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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