NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Through hr35 the 18z EURO has taken the slightest jog northward. No major changes so far, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Temps my friend. We need temps below freezing. Ideally 28-30. It’s plagued us forever. Sunday was epic snow tv and was gone by 3pm. No doubt. 32-33 with the current sun angle and soil temps will be white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I'd call this the first wave. Pretty weak sauce. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'd call this the first wave. Pretty weak sauce. What was it at 12z? The most important part is wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: What was it at 12z? The most important part is wave 2 12z comparison -- I'd say similar but 18z pushed northward ~25 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 12z comparison -- I'd say similar but 18z pushed northward ~25 miles. Ok, status quo on Wave 1. Let's bring Wave 2 home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'd call this the first wave. Pretty weak sauce. How were temps? Seems like a hold for part 1 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ok, status quo on Wave 1. Let's bring Wave 2 home Got some bad news boss, looks like another jog south. I'll wait till the run is closer to done before making a firm assessment though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Depending on temps (I'm guessing marginal to decent?), conservative, 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It's south/less amped/whatever. Not good. 18z 12z 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Got some bad news boss, looks like another jog south. I'll wait till the run is closer to done before making a firm assessment though. Yup. Stronger confluence in Maine (that's been the trend since 0z today), overall less energetic shortwave. Pretty sure the Euro is now the farthest south with wave 2. Bummer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looking at the snow maps, less amped might be the best way to put it. Not sure it really moved all that south... just not nearly as impressive. 18z 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Brutal. May not to adjust ourselves accordingly if the 0z runs don't improve. It ain't over yall. Wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Wellllll it’s starting to unravel like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2-4 for a two day snowstorm. Oh joy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. Bump, because panic from some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Brutal. May not to adjust ourselves accordingly if the 0z runs don't improve. It ain't over yall. Wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. It was really though because President Dewey resigned over that fiasco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looking at significant weather parameter, there is minimal ice threat for Central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: Wellllll it’s starting to unravel like usual. It’s amazing how close we get to game time before things start to fall apart. It happens every freaking time. This time even closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'd call this the first wave. Pretty weak sauce. Looks a tab better for Baltimore but pretty insignificant anyway. Hopefully good for a couple of warmup inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Looks a tab better for Baltimore but pretty insignificant anyway. Hopefully good for a couple of warmup inches. Warmup inches to the next inch we get over 24 hours? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM wins again (possibly, let’s see) and the third time this winter Lucy has pulled her football. At least this time I was prepared. Another 3-4 inches over 48 hours, I’m not gonna complain, at least it’s been nice to always have something on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Bump, because panic from some. I wouldn’t say it’s time to panic but it’s certainly trending towards a less impactful event. The good part is Friday is still far enough out that it’s not set in stone. Let’s hope the trends stop/reverse and we can score something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looking at the snow maps, less amped might be the best way to put it. Not sure it really moved all that south... just not nearly as impressive. 18z 12z The euro and ensembles took us from 13 inches to 3 in one day....2 days before the event. I don't buy it..the euro is acting like a jv model 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Didn't Ji rule say to take the model with the lowest totals and that the one that would verify? Seems like a legit strategy at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Ha, euro has a bit of that CVA precipitation hole. Caving to the GFS? Euro is lighter than all other guidance with wave 1. Pretty dramatically so. Maybe it’s right, but it’s by itself right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Is there an 18z UKIE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Assuming a 17/1 ratio per Kuchera, DC-area could get close to 5". Limiting the upper bound to a more realistic 12/1 yields 3-4". Of course, temperatures may reach the mid 30s on Thursday afternoon during the lull. So we could lose a bit due to melting by the time of the 2nd wave, which is forecast to drop 0.2-0.3" of snow per hour - for several hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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