Sernest14 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. What's Thursday 00z to Friday 00z show for this? or do you have a link - can never seem to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 PSU wins again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Sernest14 said: What's Thursday 00z to Friday 00z show for this? or do you have a link - can never seem to find. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Mount Holly AFD- One period of snows will affect many areas Wednesday night and into Thursday with the central and southern areas favored. The second disturbance will be the following night into Friday morning. This second wave is trending further south of the first one any may only affect Delmarva if trends continue. If there are no changes to the fcst (unlikely) it could end up being two advisory events for mostly the southern parts of the region. Our storm total snow graphic (both events combined) shows around 1 to 2 inches for the northern half of the area, 2 to 3 inches for the lower Delaware Valley and 4 to 6 inches for Delaware and ne MD. No flags will be issued with this package considering most of the snow (from the first event) won`t stop until the fourth period and some variances in track and intensity make it not a sure bet presently. Pops for the two events generally will be likely/categorical S and low chc for N/W areas.. If it plays out like this there wont be any complaints here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. the progressive NAVGEM.......... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 That's a pretty bullish forecast from NBC12 in Richmond. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 My take is when it looks iffy, see what the pros think. There are great minds here, but people like those at HPC are trained professionals with experience forecasting winter weather. Their interpretation of models and data carries more weight. Period. And they obviously are not on the Euro train. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amorphous Iodine Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The NWS picture-format forecast. I like it a lot, but I don't understand why they don't have a probability assigned to the full moon on Friday night. Which model(s) predict that? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Seems very conservative given what the models have shown outside of the GFS. Figured that 10% would be fairly widespread with a decent area of 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yeah its the SREF, but if this ends up close to reality who would be unhappy? (other than Ji and psu) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My take is when it looks iffy, see what the pros think. There are great minds here, but people like those at HPC are trained professionals with experience forecasting winter weather. Their interpretation of models and data carries more weight. Period. And they obviously are not on the Euro train. Yes and they seem to be much more bullish than we are tbh. It's a guiding light for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: PSU wins again Some QPF love for PSUland! The new name for our beloved Carroll county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yeah its the SREF, but if this ends up close to reality who would be unhappy? (other than Ji and psu) DT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. As usual you are the voice of reason! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. I listen to you like gospel, my friend. You’re one of the few folks who are extremely well versed in understanding potential reality v. Verbatim model depictions via your deep knowledge of setups, climo, past analogs, etc. I agree 100%. Anybody within 50-75 miles of the depicted snow Max should definitely not be writing this off. Especially folks in areas such as MoCo, HoCo, NoVA, over toward Baltimore city. How many times do we need to see storms shift in real time before we stop getting burned by kuchera snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah its the SREF, but if this ends up close to reality who would be unhappy? (other than Ji and psu) arnt srefs usuallly much wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, snowfan said: That's more like it. *Frederick based chef's kiss* 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, jayyy said: I listen to you like gospel, my friend. You’re one of the few folks who are extremely well versed in understanding potential reality v. Verbatim model depictions via your deep knowledge of setups, climo, past analogs, etc. I agree 100%. Anybody within 50-75 miles of the depicted snow Max should definitely not be writing this off. Especially folks in areas such as MoCo, HoCo, NoVA, over toward Baltimore city. How many times do we need to see storms shift in real time before we stop getting burned by kuchera snow maps The unfortunate part about the transition to the mid range to the short range is people's nerves are already fried. They've seen a million looks and reacted differently to all of them. Just because we're in the short range now doesn't mean it's all figured out. It's never all figured out like that. I like what wxusaf said and practice the same. Grab the set of models that you feel have the best handle (sometimes it's all of them) and then just blend them. Adjust what you know may be likely incorrect or just less likely to happen. If 4 models are all south and 1 model is jacking your yard, don't expect to get jacked. If the entire suite is shotgunned within a defined range (like right now), SOMEONE is prob getting jacked nearby. Might be you, might be someone else but you're in the game. I never understood why people simply latch onto the absolute most cherry picked set of runs/models and then lose it every time something shows something worse. Mid to short range ALWAYS has a series of overdone solutions. You can set your watch to it. I treat that set as max potential not a bar but that's just me. ETA: one more thing... this whole setup is NOT a prolific QPF producer nor a super heavy snow dumper. 1.2" of qpf as snow is A LOT OF QPF. Usually reserved for a sub 1000mb low off the coast situation. That's not what's going on here. We're benefitting from a 1-2 punch but a big shellacking storm this is not. Never once thought it was and definitely not expecting double digit snowfall. It's possible but not widespread imo unless it hits on all cylinders. Which happens like once every 5 years. 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. We should all read this post 10 times so it sinks in. A couple tenths of an inch of precip one way or the other or 100 miles in the general track of the low pressure is noise. Of course that noise is deafening when it takes away 6 inches of digital snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said: That's a pretty bullish forecast from NBC12 in Richmond. It lines up with pretty much every model except for the GFS and maybe a 1 or 2 other outliers. Looks like a solid call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It lines up with pretty much every model except for the GFS and maybe a 1 or 2 other outliers. Looks like a solid call. 5-10 plus into DC? Not quite there yet for my thinking, but I'd be MORE than happy with this outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerichohill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 LWX really seems to be bearish on the Euro's take. Seems like they're mostly blending the GFS, UKMET and CMC for this one, with a bias towards the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: What is our best shot of significant snow? This event, weekend event, or early next week event? roll the dice. this one has a light/mod feel to it. not a ton of moisture. the weekend system doesn't quite have a high in the right spot, imo (though not off by much). the one next week looks like it has a chance, but it's just simply too early to know. the only trend i'm seeing is that each storm seems to have more moisture to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: 5-10 plus into DC? Not quite there yet for my thinking, but I'd be MORE than happy with this outcome. Map stopped at Fredericksburg looks like as most northern point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 One of our local mets two cents: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Can’t post it because I’m on my phone, but 3k NAM soundings look much better in central MD vs 12z, particularly for Thursday morning. Saturated DGZ with good upward motion. If the NAM is right for central MD, would imply wave 1 ends as nice fluff. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Short Pump isn't getting 0.6 1 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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