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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS looks a little more norther with Wave 2 vs 12z

Yup, seems to be less confluence pressing down in Maine vs 12z. That's after the previous two runs strengthened that piece of energy. Seems like most of 18z guidance has halted the southern slide for wave 2, so that's good news at the very least. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Has anyone seen a NWS disco mentioning their model preference? Because this clearly ain’t the euro idea

 

My guess? A mix of leaning toward the GFS/UKMET side of the envelope and throwing in a bit of “seasonal trend” and “climo” consideration on top. Idc what the setup is.... there’s something to be said about model depiction v. The result. 90+% of threats end up going further north than depicted in the final hours.  
 

yes, it’s a different setup... but I’d almost bet the house that Baltimore ends up with 0.5”+ of QPF

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros.A4801C99-DE82-48E3-ACB1-543D8A04DD9D.thumb.jpeg.107d60e95e2dcc9c732a006717890d3b.jpeg

I am from the northern Mid-Atlantic about 7 miles north of the PA/MD/DEL line but what I am seeing is the models bouncing a bit due to the boundary that the storm is going to ride along including a bit of push from the cold up north (confluence).  Now I am in here often because the knowledgeable posters are awesome!!  At some point though with the deep cold on the northern edges we are going to have to start talking about snow ratios.  It has been mentioned a few times but up here on the border southern PA I am hoping for the .35 liquid with 18-22 degree temp to produce my 4-6" of snow+.  I do have a feeling though that the end games bring things north it's been happening all year now. We shall see.

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I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. 

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Mount Holly AFD-

One period of snows will affect many areas Wednesday night and into Thursday with the central and southern areas favored. The second disturbance will be the following night into Friday morning. This second wave is trending further south of the first one any may only affect Delmarva if trends continue. If there are no changes to the fcst (unlikely) it could end up being two advisory events for mostly the southern parts of the region. Our storm total snow graphic (both events combined) shows around 1 to 2 inches for the northern half of the area, 2 to 3 inches for the lower Delaware Valley and 4 to 6 inches for Delaware and ne MD. No flags will be issued with this package considering most of the snow (from the first event) won`t stop until the fourth period and some variances in track and intensity make it not a sure bet presently. Pops for the two events generally will be likely/categorical S and low chc for N/W areas..

If it plays out like this there wont be any complaints here.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. 

the progressive NAVGEM..........

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My take is when it looks iffy, see what the pros think. There are great minds here, but people like those at HPC are trained professionals with experience forecasting winter weather. Their interpretation of models and data carries more weight. Period. And they obviously are not on the Euro train.

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