stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 First wave seems healthier on the GFS, no? Nothing extraordinary, but still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS weak and tainted with the first wave. It's tainted, but isn't it longer lasting than 12z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS looks a little more norther with Wave 2 vs 12z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Much better wave 2 though. I will take that trade off in a heartbeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like we may do worse with wave 1 but much better with wave 2 on the Gfs. Should pretty much balance out as far as overall QPF versus 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Has anyone seen a NWS disco mentioning their model preference? Because this clearly ain’t the euro idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Much better wave 2 though. There it is.... don’t you scare me like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS looks a little more norther with Wave 2 vs 12z Yup, seems to be less confluence pressing down in Maine vs 12z. That's after the previous two runs strengthened that piece of energy. Seems like most of 18z guidance has halted the southern slide for wave 2, so that's good news at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Has anyone seen a NWS disco mentioning their model preference? Because this clearly ain’t the euro idea My guess? A mix of leaning toward the GFS/UKMET side of the envelope and throwing in a bit of “seasonal trend” and “climo” consideration on top. Idc what the setup is.... there’s something to be said about model depiction v. The result. 90+% of threats end up going further north than depicted in the final hours. yes, it’s a different setup... but I’d almost bet the house that Baltimore ends up with 0.5”+ of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Could be with the first wave at least included? But yeah definitely a good sign. Their disco guidance has seemed impervious to the south trends. That’s not the first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The GFS just grimaced at the table and flipped it over. Honestly wtf is going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS still holding to the central VA min. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Precip wise, very similar maximum amounts across MD to the 12z run. But the wave 2 precip looks broader and helps to give some previously fringed areas in the north some more insurance from missing out on the best of wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s not the first wave Yeah I realized, thanks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Has anyone seen a NWS disco mentioning their model preference? Because this clearly ain’t the euro idea Exactly my point with the heavy snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The GFS is insistent on that central VA precip hole. Only model I see with it. But it just wont go away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. I am from the northern Mid-Atlantic about 7 miles north of the PA/MD/DEL line but what I am seeing is the models bouncing a bit due to the boundary that the storm is going to ride along including a bit of push from the cold up north (confluence). Now I am in here often because the knowledgeable posters are awesome!! At some point though with the deep cold on the northern edges we are going to have to start talking about snow ratios. It has been mentioned a few times but up here on the border southern PA I am hoping for the .35 liquid with 18-22 degree temp to produce my 4-6" of snow+. I do have a feeling though that the end games bring things north it's been happening all year now. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS cuts the snow for RIC but brings back a significant ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NWS maps look almost identical to the GFS. I’d guess that’s what they’re mainly using right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. What's Thursday 00z to Friday 00z show for this? or do you have a link - can never seem to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 PSU wins again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Sernest14 said: What's Thursday 00z to Friday 00z show for this? or do you have a link - can never seem to find. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Mount Holly AFD- One period of snows will affect many areas Wednesday night and into Thursday with the central and southern areas favored. The second disturbance will be the following night into Friday morning. This second wave is trending further south of the first one any may only affect Delmarva if trends continue. If there are no changes to the fcst (unlikely) it could end up being two advisory events for mostly the southern parts of the region. Our storm total snow graphic (both events combined) shows around 1 to 2 inches for the northern half of the area, 2 to 3 inches for the lower Delaware Valley and 4 to 6 inches for Delaware and ne MD. No flags will be issued with this package considering most of the snow (from the first event) won`t stop until the fourth period and some variances in track and intensity make it not a sure bet presently. Pops for the two events generally will be likely/categorical S and low chc for N/W areas.. If it plays out like this there wont be any complaints here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. the progressive NAVGEM.......... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 That's a pretty bullish forecast from NBC12 in Richmond. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 My take is when it looks iffy, see what the pros think. There are great minds here, but people like those at HPC are trained professionals with experience forecasting winter weather. Their interpretation of models and data carries more weight. Period. And they obviously are not on the Euro train. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amorphous Iodine Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The NWS picture-format forecast. I like it a lot, but I don't understand why they don't have a probability assigned to the full moon on Friday night. Which model(s) predict that? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Seems very conservative given what the models have shown outside of the GFS. Figured that 10% would be fairly widespread with a decent area of 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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