psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: There's not going to be a large N-S precip shield with this. It's a weak-ass 1018mb "low" for the first wave and a powerhouse 1010mb for the second, there's just no massive dynamical forcing to generate a big baroclinic leaf or deformation band. Second, you have very cold/dry arctic air filtering in from the north (which is a very good thing for us), so that's going to eat the precip on the north edge (and yes, models account for that, so no, it's not all virga on the models). What you didnt want to read the next 3 pages about that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Is it a good thing when it gets confusing keeping up with all the different threat threads? I would say yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: What would it take to get that precip shield to expand/strengthen? That seems to be what's keeping this from being great everywhere per the Euro - not that it isn't good already. Edit: was looking at 10:1, kuchera looks much better, disregard! P.S. regarding that Kuchera map posted. This *should* have better dendrite formation and hence fluffier snow that last weeks marathon event. That's what's shown right now. But that Kuchera map would imply like 14-15:1 ratios for the whole storm. I'll take the under. 10-12:1? Yes, quite possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: For one last look. Pivotal Short Pump isn't getting 9.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Vs 0z, it seems Euro is a bit lighter on the first wave (Wednesday night into early Thursday) and a little juicier on the 2nd wave (late Thursday into early Friday). But still adds up to a really nice event and I am VERY pleased seeing the maximum 50-75mi south of me right now. Remind me again...where has the maximum ended up compared to where the Euro had it 72 hours out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Really a cold looking snow Friday morning. Man look at that airmass over northern Minnesota at 126. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Remind me again...where has the maximum ended up compared to where the Euro had it 72 hours out? Over your house?? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Really a cold looking snow Friday morning. Man look at that airmass over northern Minnesota at 126. Parts of the subforum could get snow on snow for the 2nd time this winter with this setup. Very nice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Great run, I sill want another tick or two south before the north trend starts. Gotta have some insurance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Over your house?? I hope this one doesn't adjust as far north...I think 95 is in better shape here...by 72 the euro wasnt THAT far south and this time the max is a little south of DC. The last few times DC was already kinda hangin by a thread by 72 hours. Plus there is some legit cold in the pattern now. I am willing to take a good but not great snow up here to get DC/Baltimore to finally jack. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is it a good thing when it gets confusing keeping up with all the different threat threads? youll figure it out eventually, im sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: Great run, I sill want another tick or two south before the north trend starts. Gotta have some insurance. Be careful.. did you see the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I hope this one doesn't adjust as far north...I think 95 is in better shape here...by 72 the euro wasnt THAT far south and this time the max is a little south of DC. The last few times DC was already kinda hangin by a thread by 72 hours. Plus there is some legit cold in the pattern now. I am willing to take a good but not great snow up here to get DC/Baltimore to finally jack. I think I'm in a good position for this one. Of course I thought I was in a good position for yesterday and...well, you could say I was in the center of the action, the 'eye of the storm' if you will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Total kuchera through Friday. Jackpot is over my house so don't worry, it will move NW. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 This might be the best looking storm for me all winter. Euro showing a bullseye to my south 4 days out so there's still good wiggle room. Perfect spot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I think I'm in a good position for this one. Of course I thought I was in a good position for yesterday and...well, you could say I was in the center of the action, the 'eye of the storm' if you will! I experienced the strangest thing yesterday.. drove from Baltimore to Columbia mall/ Wholefoods and then about hour later came home.. it was snowing at Whole Foods.. and snowing pretty hard in West Baltimore.. but then in the middle.. on the way out and coming back.. along 40 in Ellicott City.. it was a light mix.. yesterday was really all about rates.. and there was a dead zone in Ellicott City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I may as well add to the weenie imby hype going on in this thread. This one has Winchester bullseye written all over it. In all seriousness whoever to the west gets the goods from both waves will jack. I feel like Woodstock to Hagerstown will end up the winner with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said: I experienced the strangest thing yesterday.. drove from Baltimore to Columbia mall/ Wholefoods and then about hour later came home.. it was snowing at Whole Foods.. and snowing pretty hard in West Baltimore.. but then in the middle.. on the way out and coming back.. along 40 in Ellicott City.. it was a light mix.. yesterday was really all about rates.. and there was a dead zone in Ellicott City. Tell me about it...I saw a noticeable gradient in less than 2mi distance from my house. Drove past the same spot today and they still have snow on the ground from yesterday up near Howard High. Nothing (from yesterday) in my neighborhood. Rates and elevation... Wednesday-Friday event shouldn't matter. Cold air is a wonderful thing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Tell me about it...I saw a noticeable gradient in less than 2mi distance from my house. Drove past the same spot today and they still have snow on the ground from yesterday up near Howard High. Nothing (from yesterday) in my neighborhood. Rates and elevation... Wednesday-Friday event shouldn't matter. Cold air is a wonderful thing. And we have a nice delta in pressure too.. I know we are only looking at a 1010 lp.. but we have a 1045 hp settling in.. that kind of pressure difference typically results in good overrunning for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I may as well add to the weenie imby hype going on in this thread. This one has Winchester bullseye written all over it. In all seriousness whoever to the west gets the goods from both waves will jack. I feel like Woodstock to Hagerstown will end up the winner with this one. I like your thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Surprised nobody posted this. Looks pretty good to me 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, Amped said: Great run, I sill want another tick or two south before the north trend starts. Gotta have some insurance. nope. i dont want any more south ticks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Surprised nobody posted this. Looks pretty good to me That’s a bullseye! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: nope. i dont want any more south ticks. Maybe a slight tick because you know it's going to bump north soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: with the Storm starting Wedneday afternoon...when will Yoga post our winter storm watch copy and paste? 4 am tomorrow morning. I honestly think we could be under one by then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 4 am tomorrow morning. I honestly think we could be under one by then. man...this is so much better than tracking one storm for 10 days with no backup plan if it fails(which it usually does). I guess we are seeing the valley from the a different angle 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hope this one doesn't adjust as far north...I think 95 is in better shape here...by 72 the euro wasnt THAT far south and this time the max is a little south of DC. The last few times DC was already kinda hangin by a thread by 72 hours. Plus there is some legit cold in the pattern now. I am willing to take a good but not great snow up here to get DC/Baltimore to finally jack. You’re so generous. Only if you were behind the levers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I saved a copy of the WSW from 2/4/2010 storm when it originally came out and I just pulled it out to look at it so I remembered what a legit WSW looked like. Sorry banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 NAM who? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: NAM who? It’s the best model for this setup 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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