WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Not to burst any bubbles and I know no two systems are exactly alike and also better to have something in our corner, but didn’t the RGEM still spit out ridiculous amounts here for 1/31-2/1 after the varsity level models started cutting back? 37 inches....just a little off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This thing has slowed a good bit also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, snowfan said: I mean, it’s not the 40 inches @stormtracker was hoping for but it’s acceptable. 12" is his limit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. 10% chance of 4".. lock it up! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. Could be with the first wave at least included? But yeah definitely a good sign. Their disco guidance has seemed impervious to the south trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Yeoman said: 10% chance of 4".. lock it up! I'll take it, better than 0 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Could be with the first wave at least included? But yeah definitely a good sign. Their disco guidance has seemed impervious to the south trends. No that's for 00z Fri through 00z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: 10% chance of 4".. lock it up! When I first saw this, I thought sweet that’s the 4-8 inch/heavy snow potential drawing! I’ll show myself out with the hot dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS weak and tainted with the first wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 First wave seems healthier on the GFS, no? Nothing extraordinary, but still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS weak and tainted with the first wave. It's tainted, but isn't it longer lasting than 12z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS looks a little more norther with Wave 2 vs 12z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Much better wave 2 though. I will take that trade off in a heartbeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like we may do worse with wave 1 but much better with wave 2 on the Gfs. Should pretty much balance out as far as overall QPF versus 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Has anyone seen a NWS disco mentioning their model preference? Because this clearly ain’t the euro idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Much better wave 2 though. There it is.... don’t you scare me like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS looks a little more norther with Wave 2 vs 12z Yup, seems to be less confluence pressing down in Maine vs 12z. That's after the previous two runs strengthened that piece of energy. Seems like most of 18z guidance has halted the southern slide for wave 2, so that's good news at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Has anyone seen a NWS disco mentioning their model preference? Because this clearly ain’t the euro idea My guess? A mix of leaning toward the GFS/UKMET side of the envelope and throwing in a bit of “seasonal trend” and “climo” consideration on top. Idc what the setup is.... there’s something to be said about model depiction v. The result. 90+% of threats end up going further north than depicted in the final hours. yes, it’s a different setup... but I’d almost bet the house that Baltimore ends up with 0.5”+ of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Could be with the first wave at least included? But yeah definitely a good sign. Their disco guidance has seemed impervious to the south trends. That’s not the first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The GFS just grimaced at the table and flipped it over. Honestly wtf is going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS still holding to the central VA min. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Precip wise, very similar maximum amounts across MD to the 12z run. But the wave 2 precip looks broader and helps to give some previously fringed areas in the north some more insurance from missing out on the best of wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s not the first wave Yeah I realized, thanks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Has anyone seen a NWS disco mentioning their model preference? Because this clearly ain’t the euro idea Exactly my point with the heavy snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The GFS is insistent on that central VA precip hole. Only model I see with it. But it just wont go away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. I am from the northern Mid-Atlantic about 7 miles north of the PA/MD/DEL line but what I am seeing is the models bouncing a bit due to the boundary that the storm is going to ride along including a bit of push from the cold up north (confluence). Now I am in here often because the knowledgeable posters are awesome!! At some point though with the deep cold on the northern edges we are going to have to start talking about snow ratios. It has been mentioned a few times but up here on the border southern PA I am hoping for the .35 liquid with 18-22 degree temp to produce my 4-6" of snow+. I do have a feeling though that the end games bring things north it's been happening all year now. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS cuts the snow for RIC but brings back a significant ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NWS maps look almost identical to the GFS. I’d guess that’s what they’re mainly using right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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