Paleocene Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1. That worked out well for us inside the beltway on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1. what happened to our cold storm? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM has the goods south of D.C. for wave two. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 if this isnt the most aggravating panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Ji said: what happened to our cold storm? It’ll be there for Wave 2, when we watch the good stuff slide by to the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1.If the tpv tucks and we get some rates it should be good verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: what happened to our cold storm? Supposedly the cold press is taking away our QPF but it's not actually that cold lol. I have no idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1. This is 2 cycles in a row that it has shown this. Being at night will help overcome it a good deal, but it's weird to see the NAM be the warmest model so far for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: NAM has the goods south of D.C. for wave two. yup. looks like another shove south. I dunno. Trending to less for part 2, more for part 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: NAM has the goods south of D.C. for wave two. more South than 12z.. ugg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Quite frustrating. No verdict yet tho...again 0z is the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, ILIKERAKE said: more South than 12z.. ugg its actually jucier than 12z south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILIKERAKE said: Bust - Rain Prediction - 1-8in Boom - 8-25in Lol exactly. LWX holding somewhat strong with “generally 5-8 region wide” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 .5 total qpf. Another cut back. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM almost has the nightmare scenario ! Too far south for wave 1 and too far north for wave 2! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I’m old enough to remember when this event was supposed to have temps below 30. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Personally I’ll take the low position of the second wave. Think it might surprise with a north trend if it turns out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM 3km has a healthier precip shield for wave 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: yup. looks like another shove south. I dunno. Trending to less for part 2, more for part 1 48+ hours out from this part of the storm - heaviest snow 50 miles south.... sounds like exactly where we want to be right now honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: .5 total qpf. Another cut back. Meh. It really is quite bad, and I'm the most optimistic, half glass full person here. I still think it may be doing too much, but the trend south today can't be denied. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Quite frustrating. No verdict yet tho...again 0z is the benchmark Today or Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Today or Friday? for wave 1 tonight. wave 2, prob tomm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: It really is quite bad, and I'm the most optimistic, half glass full person here. I still think it may be doing too much, but the trend south today can't be denied. Yeah I agree. Definitely trending away from anything significant for us. At least it still *should* snow though and at least *some* of the snow *should* fall at temps resembling an actual winter storm. Notice all my qualifiers hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: NAM almost has the nightmare scenario ! Too far south for wave 1 and too far north for wave 2! i talked about this fail scenario but didnt really believe it would happen. I cant belive it happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Thing is if you wish for the first wave to be juiced up it might miss north. And the second wave looks pretty much gone to me for anyone north of DC. This could easily end up with both missing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Seriously, what would you normally think? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Personally I’ll take the low position of the second wave. Think it might surprise with a north trend if it turns out like that. 100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. A low that rides into southern VA barely getting precip north of the VA MD border? Seems odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I’m not afraid of a juiced up first wave. And I’m not sold on that second one just sliding off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Seriously, what would you normally think? its amazing how it just stops on our door step. Just amazing. I mean amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: 100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. Then we are in agreement. This is probably all a waste of time. I put no faith in the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts