Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Is the NAM the only meso showing those substantial mixing issues for the initial wave? All panels (850s, 925s, etc) are a fair bit below freezing from EZF north, yet it still shows 0.1" QPF worth of sleet. Regardless, 0.3"-0.5" QPF for a good bit of the area for wave 1 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: NAM is different. Shocker huh? Even starting out back in KY for our second wave looks different, shape and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Even starting out back in KY for our second wave looks different, shape and intensity. lets bring it home. Shame on me for saying we had a different view of the valley yesterday smh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: yeah Wave 1 is def healthier, at least down here Looks like a ESE DC and SoMD jack - near 1” of liquid with QPF tapering to about 0.5” as you head toward Baltimore. Less further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 CWG predicts 3-7 for me and 2-6 elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Crazy to see the metros with temps in the low 50's. High here today was 35 with a 3" snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Is the NAM the only meso showing those substantial mixing issues for the initial wave? All panels (850s, 925s, etc) are a fair bit below freezing from EZF north, yet it still shows 0.1" QPF worth of sleet. Regardless, 0.3"-0.5" QPF for a good bit of the area for wave 1 on the NAM. NAM has a warm nose at 800mb that gets to DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: CWG predicts 3-7 for me and 2-6 elsewhere Keep us posted 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: NAM has a warm nose at 800mb that gets to DC. Although nothing else has that, it's annoying me and raising an eyebrow. I wish it would get rid of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Although nothing else has that, it's annoying me and raising an eyebrow. I wish it would get rid of that. The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1. That worked out well for us inside the beltway on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1. what happened to our cold storm? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM has the goods south of D.C. for wave two. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 if this isnt the most aggravating panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Ji said: what happened to our cold storm? It’ll be there for Wave 2, when we watch the good stuff slide by to the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1.If the tpv tucks and we get some rates it should be good verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: what happened to our cold storm? Supposedly the cold press is taking away our QPF but it's not actually that cold lol. I have no idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1. This is 2 cycles in a row that it has shown this. Being at night will help overcome it a good deal, but it's weird to see the NAM be the warmest model so far for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: NAM has the goods south of D.C. for wave two. yup. looks like another shove south. I dunno. Trending to less for part 2, more for part 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: NAM has the goods south of D.C. for wave two. more South than 12z.. ugg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Quite frustrating. No verdict yet tho...again 0z is the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, ILIKERAKE said: more South than 12z.. ugg its actually jucier than 12z south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILIKERAKE said: Bust - Rain Prediction - 1-8in Boom - 8-25in Lol exactly. LWX holding somewhat strong with “generally 5-8 region wide” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 .5 total qpf. Another cut back. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM almost has the nightmare scenario ! Too far south for wave 1 and too far north for wave 2! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I’m old enough to remember when this event was supposed to have temps below 30. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Personally I’ll take the low position of the second wave. Think it might surprise with a north trend if it turns out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM 3km has a healthier precip shield for wave 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: yup. looks like another shove south. I dunno. Trending to less for part 2, more for part 1 48+ hours out from this part of the storm - heaviest snow 50 miles south.... sounds like exactly where we want to be right now honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: .5 total qpf. Another cut back. Meh. It really is quite bad, and I'm the most optimistic, half glass full person here. I still think it may be doing too much, but the trend south today can't be denied. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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