jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MDRandy said: That’s wild. It’s 40.5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Fwiw 18z HRRR is much better on the north side than the Euro 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: That’s wild. It’s 40.5 here. 41 here. snowpack hanging on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Fwiw 18z HRRR is much better on the north side than the Euro I believe the long range HRRR did decent with the event a few days ago Edit: it showed a poor event and that's what a good chunk of us got 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: On the good news front, temps here are below forecasted and we’ve had almost complete cloud cover so no solar warming of the roads and ground. Or less I should say Same here -- we were forecast to hit 45 and will only make it to 38, and it has been cloudy almost the entire time other than a couple of brief peeks of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: That’s wild. It’s 40.5 here. NW Baltimore is at 44; there's usually a 5-10 degree range between downtown and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Can someone smarter than me tell me what they're thinking about ratios on this? Seems plenty cold but soundings show very little lift in the DGZ for this event. WxBell showing Kuchera ratios around 8-10:1. Does that seem reasonable? I thought I was seeing the opposite in regards to Kuchera ratios - looked like they were more 12:1 given that the kuchera maps showed more than the 10:1 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Fwiw 18z HRRR is much better on the north side than the Euro I expect a bit of a last second correction with QPF on the north side of the storm as we get closer to the event. Not necessarily via the storm trending north... but I think the cutoff being depicted on the Euro for you folks located between DC and BAL is a bit exaggerated. GFS/UKMET may be onto something here. PSU is right... it will be a battle up in the far northern tier with a dry flow eating away from the north, but I think places like HoCo MoCo and Baltimore could certainly see solid QPF (~.7-.8) when all is said and done if the flow is even a LITTLE less overbearing up in PA. May be of nowcast type situation for folks between DC/BAL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Sernest14 said: I thought I was seeing the opposite in regards to Kuchera ratios - looked like they were more 12:1 given that the kuchera maps showed more than the 10:1 maps Depends on the model it seems. Some have kuchera with better rates than others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, MDRandy said: Im thinking that station is running a little high...but alrighty lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Bouncing b/w 37-38 here...lower than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: What’s this thing that you refer to as “snowpack”? High of 50.5 here. Better than the 54-55 a few of the models were spitting out a couple of days ago. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 84 degrees currently, warm one. I’m sweating ohhh loc: Hard Rock Tampa, FL 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Geez, it's only 44 here. I am at 47 and the corner of Fayette and Baltimore Street. Maybe he is under a heat lamp. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I am at 47 and the corner of Fayette and Baltimore Street. Maybe he is under a heat lamp. That makes more sense. 55 is just obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 42 in Leesburg expecting 4-6" give or take 4-6" 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: I believe the long range HRRR did decent with the event a few days ago Edit: it showed a poor event and that's what a good chunk of us got It was actually pretty decent... even from Uber long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 That 55 is a messed up sensor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Im thinking that station is running a little high...but alrighty lol It's down to 51 now, so I agree; seems like an unreliable station. Anywhere from 47-50 seems reasonable for downtown currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: PSU supplying all the cold air for this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 not too shabby 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hour 33 on the NAM: compared to 12z, precip is noticeably slower to arrive and confluence is stronger over Maine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I guess the Riverside neighborhood has its own microclimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wave 1 precip shield looks healthier on the 18z NAM....hoping it delivers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wave 1 seems better for our forum than 12z? start sharp cutoff just south of DC, but looks a little better rates? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 37/25 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Spiked at 51° about an hour ago. Some clouds rolled in and now backed off to 49° Managed to rip myself from work and had a wonderful lunchtime dog walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM is slower but still looks very acceptable to me thru 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 yeah Wave 1 is def healthier, at least down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM is different. Shocker huh? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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