GATECH Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: I like that analogy. That was a distinct overperformer and very location dependent. it was dumping snow in Fairfax during the morning rush while it was doing almost nothing over the beltway in Silver Spring. Yep, I think one of these coming waves can hopefully produce! I worked in Tysons at the time and had to take several coworkers home in my CRV which was a champ in snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Well, we are here sitting with a min of 0.5” QPF after not having a warning-level event in a couple of years. Not feeling bad about northern MD. I am rooting for you guys with this one. This is your turn I hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On the good news front, temps here are below forecasted and we’ve had almost complete cloud cover so no solar warming of the roads and ground. Or less I should say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s not”drying up” because it does not predict but rather right now is covering the drier example base. 6 and 12 hours from now another example will be given BTW...would be nice if you ever just once offered some concrete evidence for this slander against everyone who works in NWP including some on this board that you continually puke all over this forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: On the good news front, temps here are below forecasted and we’ve had almost complete cloud cover so no solar warming of the roads and ground. Or less I should say Yup. Forecast high was 49 for me...currently at 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 A Winter Storm Watch will not be issued yet. A Winter Storm Watch will likely be required by this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Forecast high was 49 for me...currently at 41. 50 already downtown. We blow by forecasted highs more than DC drivers blow stop signs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: On the good news front, temps here are below forecasted and we’ve had almost complete cloud cover so no solar warming of the roads and ground. Or less I should say I was worried I might lose some snowpack today but temps only made it to the mid 30s and had cloud cover and now they are dropping again so...didn't really make a dent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I am just going to hug my zone forecast. I can't remember the last time it had snow on it for 5 days in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am rooting for you guys with this one. This is your turn I hope. your rooting for us because its a run of the mill event and you dont care about those 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I was worried I might lose some snowpack today but temps only made it to the mid 30s and had cloud cover and now they are dropping again so...didn't really make a dent. What’s this thing that you refer to as “snowpack”? High of 50.5 here. Better than the 54-55 a few of the models were spitting out a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, ovechkin said: 50 already downtown. We blow by forecasted highs more than DC drivers blow stop signs. 55 and climbing in the tropics of downtown Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes... you are right the models are programmed not to attempt to produce the most accurate simulation each run, but to intentionally jump all over the place and show every possible outcome so that we can...I dunno your motive here is a little unclear...screw with snow weenies? And...they do this because EVERY weather agency in the world, public and private, even ones that compete with each other, encompassing tens of thousands of people, are all in bed as part of some HUGE conspiracy to...again your motive is kinda weak here...I guess they just recruit a bunch of people who have no morals and want to fool the public and screw with snow weenies and they all come together across dozens of countries and agencies for that goal! I am so glad we have you to shine a light on this. Tosses tinfoil hat on the table I KNEW IT! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, ovechkin said: 50 already downtown. We blow by forecasted highs more than DC drivers blow stop signs. 47 here in NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, ovechkin said: 50 already downtown. We blow by forecasted highs more than DC drivers blow stop signs. Roasty toasty 47 with the sun out here in Silver Spring. Hoping for some half decent overnight rates so we get some accums by thursday AM. Also hoping cloud cover tomorrow verifies. The ground is still relatively cold after our chilly/wet stretch, snow still hanging on in some grassy spots but prolly all gone after this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MDRandy said: 55 and climbing in the tropics of downtown Baltimore. Geez, it's only 44 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MDRandy said: 55 and climbing in the tropics of downtown Baltimore. 55? Wheres your weather station, the top of the Legg Mason building ? lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, chris21 said: 47 here in NW. Winds seem to have shifted so hopefully we have maxed. At least we aren’t in Death Valley Baltimore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: 55? Wheres your weather station, the top of the Legg Mason building ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Went out to watch the kids play at lunchtime today. sun was out and it felt really nice. Still mostly sunny and 46 here in Burke. And we have no snowpack except for random spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MDRandy said: That’s wild. It’s 40.5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Fwiw 18z HRRR is much better on the north side than the Euro 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: That’s wild. It’s 40.5 here. 41 here. snowpack hanging on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Fwiw 18z HRRR is much better on the north side than the Euro I believe the long range HRRR did decent with the event a few days ago Edit: it showed a poor event and that's what a good chunk of us got 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: On the good news front, temps here are below forecasted and we’ve had almost complete cloud cover so no solar warming of the roads and ground. Or less I should say Same here -- we were forecast to hit 45 and will only make it to 38, and it has been cloudy almost the entire time other than a couple of brief peeks of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: That’s wild. It’s 40.5 here. NW Baltimore is at 44; there's usually a 5-10 degree range between downtown and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Can someone smarter than me tell me what they're thinking about ratios on this? Seems plenty cold but soundings show very little lift in the DGZ for this event. WxBell showing Kuchera ratios around 8-10:1. Does that seem reasonable? I thought I was seeing the opposite in regards to Kuchera ratios - looked like they were more 12:1 given that the kuchera maps showed more than the 10:1 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Fwiw 18z HRRR is much better on the north side than the Euro I expect a bit of a last second correction with QPF on the north side of the storm as we get closer to the event. Not necessarily via the storm trending north... but I think the cutoff being depicted on the Euro for you folks located between DC and BAL is a bit exaggerated. GFS/UKMET may be onto something here. PSU is right... it will be a battle up in the far northern tier with a dry flow eating away from the north, but I think places like HoCo MoCo and Baltimore could certainly see solid QPF (~.7-.8) when all is said and done if the flow is even a LITTLE less overbearing up in PA. May be of nowcast type situation for folks between DC/BAL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Sernest14 said: I thought I was seeing the opposite in regards to Kuchera ratios - looked like they were more 12:1 given that the kuchera maps showed more than the 10:1 maps Depends on the model it seems. Some have kuchera with better rates than others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, MDRandy said: Im thinking that station is running a little high...but alrighty lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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