mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Well, we are here sitting with a min of 0.5” QPF after not having a warning-level event in a couple of years. Not feeling bad about northern MD. and you shouldn't! I've got 17" so far this year, leaps and bounds better than last year. Hope you guys score this time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: Can someone smarter than me tell me what they're thinking about ratios on this? Seems plenty cold but soundings show very little lift in the DGZ for this event. WxBell showing Kuchera ratios around 8-10:1. Does that seem reasonable? For me it really depends on the rate of preciptation...Im sure somebody with more knowledge about DGZ and all that can chime in, but some of the soundings probably show crappy rates and therefore not great ratios. Light pixie dust just doesnt pile up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: For me it really depends on the rate of preciptation...Im sure somebody with more knowledge about DGZ and all that can chime in, but some of the soundings probably show crappy rates and therefore not great ratios. Light pixie dust just doesnt pile up This won’t be a pixie dust type snow. Not in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, real said: Part of the issue is also the duration, and we are talking about 2 waves over 2 days. Maybe the cold this time will work a bit more magic than past storms. But even in D.C and close-in suburbs, I don't know how you can feel that confident that .6 of precip over two days is really going to get the job done, when you consider how dense environments/pavement have a tendency to eat away at snow, even with below-freezing temperatures. A 2 to 4 inch snow over two days could easily really end being a very minor event, when you see what remains. Accurate, and sadly what is most likely to happen. Unless things look better at 18z and 00z, this will likely just be a nice long stretch of uneventful, conversational snow for DC proper. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, GATECH said: Gonna hug the Mar 9, 1999 example the @Deck Pic threw out yesterday. That was a surprise over-performer, similar setup. I think the models have set the goal posts between Richmond and Baltimore, other than that Radar watching time tomorrow evening. I like that analogy. That was a distinct overperformer and very location dependent. it was dumping snow in Fairfax during the morning rush while it was doing almost nothing over the beltway in Silver Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s not”drying up” because it does not predict but rather right now is covering the drier example base. 6 and 12 hours from now another example will be given Yes... you are right the models are programmed not to attempt to produce the most accurate simulation each run, but to intentionally jump all over the place and show every possible outcome so that we can...I dunno your motive here is a little unclear...screw with snow weenies? And...they do this because EVERY weather agency in the world, public and private, even ones that compete with each other, encompassing tens of thousands of people, are all in bed as part of some HUGE conspiracy to...again your motive is kinda weak here...I guess they just recruit a bunch of people who have no morals and want to fool the public and screw with snow weenies and they all come together across dozens of countries and agencies for that goal! I am so glad we have you to shine a light on this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Watch issued for eastern West Virginia and western Maryland for 5-8" for part one. Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 223 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Additional snow is expected Thursday afternoon through Friday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Can someone smarter than me tell me what they're thinking about ratios on this? Seems plenty cold but soundings show very little lift in the DGZ for this event. WxBell showing Kuchera ratios around 8-10:1. Does that seem reasonable? The ratio conversation was a couple of pages back. Around 10:1 or slightly under was the consensus, so yes, 8-10:1 seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: This won’t be a pixie dust type snow. Not in this setup. Why not?...If the overall QPF and rates arent there, and its just light stuff, cant it be pixie dust? Especially in a WAA event? The WAA event last Sunday on Jan 31 with the WAA associated with the miller B was a lot of pixie dust for me outside of about 90 mins of good rates that gave me most of my 4" of snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, real said: I am not saying it won't stick, but one key of a good DC snow is at some point you need at least some good rates, or you tend to lose almost as much as you are gaining, especially if this is broken up over two daylight cycles. Temperatures may help this time, but temperatures usually end up warmer than modeled in the city, absent at least some good rates at some point during the "storm" Just using the GFS output for the sake of discussion, but I do think we will see some accumulations and not have issues sticking. Much colder airmass than the last storm thank god. Part 1: Temp at 32 for onset of precip tomorrow night 00z. Overnight 0.2 QPF with temps around 30. Part 2: Thursday daytime lull, temps in the low 30s, all the roads mostly melt out on their own. Part 3: Temp in the 20s for onset at 06z Friday. Overnight 0.2 QPF with temps falling into the lower 20s. If this scenario played out you'd see 1-3 inches in part 1 which would melt and compact a bit during the day Thursday with another 1-3 inches on top of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: I like that analogy. That was a distinct overperformer and very location dependent. it was dumping snow in Fairfax during the morning rush while it was doing almost nothing over the beltway in Silver Spring. Yep, I think one of these coming waves can hopefully produce! I worked in Tysons at the time and had to take several coworkers home in my CRV which was a champ in snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Well, we are here sitting with a min of 0.5” QPF after not having a warning-level event in a couple of years. Not feeling bad about northern MD. I am rooting for you guys with this one. This is your turn I hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On the good news front, temps here are below forecasted and we’ve had almost complete cloud cover so no solar warming of the roads and ground. Or less I should say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s not”drying up” because it does not predict but rather right now is covering the drier example base. 6 and 12 hours from now another example will be given BTW...would be nice if you ever just once offered some concrete evidence for this slander against everyone who works in NWP including some on this board that you continually puke all over this forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: On the good news front, temps here are below forecasted and we’ve had almost complete cloud cover so no solar warming of the roads and ground. Or less I should say Yup. Forecast high was 49 for me...currently at 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 A Winter Storm Watch will not be issued yet. A Winter Storm Watch will likely be required by this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Forecast high was 49 for me...currently at 41. 50 already downtown. We blow by forecasted highs more than DC drivers blow stop signs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: On the good news front, temps here are below forecasted and we’ve had almost complete cloud cover so no solar warming of the roads and ground. Or less I should say I was worried I might lose some snowpack today but temps only made it to the mid 30s and had cloud cover and now they are dropping again so...didn't really make a dent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I am just going to hug my zone forecast. I can't remember the last time it had snow on it for 5 days in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am rooting for you guys with this one. This is your turn I hope. your rooting for us because its a run of the mill event and you dont care about those 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I was worried I might lose some snowpack today but temps only made it to the mid 30s and had cloud cover and now they are dropping again so...didn't really make a dent. What’s this thing that you refer to as “snowpack”? High of 50.5 here. Better than the 54-55 a few of the models were spitting out a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, ovechkin said: 50 already downtown. We blow by forecasted highs more than DC drivers blow stop signs. 55 and climbing in the tropics of downtown Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes... you are right the models are programmed not to attempt to produce the most accurate simulation each run, but to intentionally jump all over the place and show every possible outcome so that we can...I dunno your motive here is a little unclear...screw with snow weenies? And...they do this because EVERY weather agency in the world, public and private, even ones that compete with each other, encompassing tens of thousands of people, are all in bed as part of some HUGE conspiracy to...again your motive is kinda weak here...I guess they just recruit a bunch of people who have no morals and want to fool the public and screw with snow weenies and they all come together across dozens of countries and agencies for that goal! I am so glad we have you to shine a light on this. Tosses tinfoil hat on the table I KNEW IT! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, ovechkin said: 50 already downtown. We blow by forecasted highs more than DC drivers blow stop signs. 47 here in NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, ovechkin said: 50 already downtown. We blow by forecasted highs more than DC drivers blow stop signs. Roasty toasty 47 with the sun out here in Silver Spring. Hoping for some half decent overnight rates so we get some accums by thursday AM. Also hoping cloud cover tomorrow verifies. The ground is still relatively cold after our chilly/wet stretch, snow still hanging on in some grassy spots but prolly all gone after this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MDRandy said: 55 and climbing in the tropics of downtown Baltimore. Geez, it's only 44 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MDRandy said: 55 and climbing in the tropics of downtown Baltimore. 55? Wheres your weather station, the top of the Legg Mason building ? lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, chris21 said: 47 here in NW. Winds seem to have shifted so hopefully we have maxed. At least we aren’t in Death Valley Baltimore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: 55? Wheres your weather station, the top of the Legg Mason building ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Went out to watch the kids play at lunchtime today. sun was out and it felt really nice. Still mostly sunny and 46 here in Burke. And we have no snowpack except for random spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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