jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Sure if you wanna forecast based just off Kuchera snow maps...but for instance the EURO only shows .25-.3 preciptation in the Baltimore metro...that aint piling up to 5" over 30 hours like that euro snow maps shows Ok fair point. Blend these then. EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right? These are clown maps. You can cut them in half at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 feeling pretty solid with my call at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Ok fair point. Blend these then. Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Ok fair point. Blend these then. EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA. GFS managed to pretty much miss my yard with both waves. I am inclined to believe it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible Yeah, I get it. We want the Euro to be the most juiced, not the least. And of course we have to worry about trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: Do Kuchera totals ever verify? It seems like since I've been following them for several years they're almost always universally high. Kuchera tends to do pretty well imby. I am at 1550' and get higher than 10:1 frequently. I also can get lower than 10:1 of course, but Kuchera usually sniffs this out reasonably well also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im gonna wait for 0z before sweating. it. Admittedly, it's a troubling development. Same. The spidey senses are tingling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible I'd take the Euro/NAM over those two at this point. But at this point my confidence in 50 miles give or take is extremely low, which is becoming a good thing as we move away from the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WesternFringe said: Kuchera tends to do pretty well imby. I am at 1550' and get higher than 10:1 frequently. I also can get lower than 10:1 of course, but Kuchera usually sniffs this out reasonably well also. Maybe it's because my elevation is only like 105ft and about 1/4 mile from the bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hmmm this looks to be trending substantially drier from 0z with the high pressure and cold air winning out. Mentioned this early this morning we could be looking at a non event for many in my north of rout 50 maybe 1-2 inches . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Ok fair point. Blend these then. EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA. Great point. I don't think any one particular model has nailed every event this winter. Best to take a blend which would still be a nice event in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z QPF roundup for posterity... still pretty significant differences in northern extent of precip: 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 That central VA qpf on the GFS is wild compared to everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: 12z QPF roundup for posterity... still pretty significant differences in northern extent of precip: The freakout over the euro really is odd given the GFS was the worst one. Even the crazy NAM is a good event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 EPS total qpf. Wetter than the OP but drier than 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Rvarookie What part of this "confuses" you? The euro has shown a distinct decrease in QPF and snowfall for 90% of everyone in this forum the last 5 runs in a row. That is a pretty bad trend when we are this close to the event. Confused on how much the trend continues vs hopeful not too much to screw mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: The freakout over the euro really is odd given the GFS was the worst one. Even the crazy NAM is a good event. Every single one of those is pretty good for the southern folks but that GFS, it's almost an inverse image of the others. Weird stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: That central VA qpf on the GFS is wild compared to everything else. Euro is kind of on an island with a dry wave 1. GFS is definitely on an island with a paltry wave 2. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: 12z QPF roundup for posterity... still pretty significant differences in northern extent of precip: thanks for this. really good visual of what all are showing. I will happily take .3 qpf and whatever snow falls. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 26 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right? I just averaged MBY and it came to 6.66 Uh huh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, H2O said: The freakout over the euro really is odd given the GFS was the worst one. Even the crazy NAM is a good event. Depends where you live lol..Il ltake the .6 on the GFS over the .3 on the Euro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 It’s not”drying up” because it does not predict but rather right now is covering the drier example base. 6 and 12 hours from now another example will be given 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Part of the issue is also the duration, and we are talking about 2 waves over 2 days. Maybe the cold this time will work a bit more magic than past storms. But even in D.C and close-in suburbs, I don't know how you can feel that confident that .6 of precip over two days is really going to get the job done, when you consider how dense environments/pavement have a tendency to eat away at snow, even with below-freezing temperatures. A 2 to 4 inch snow over two days could easily really end being a very minor event, when you see what remains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is kind of on an island with a dry wave 1. GFS is definitely on an island with a paltry wave 2. So what you're really saying is, expect a juiced wave 1 and amped wave 2? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, real said: Part of the issue is also the duration, and we are talking about 2 waves over 2 days. Maybe the cold this time will work a bit more magic than past storms. But even in D.C and close-in suburbs, I don't know how you can feel that confident that .6 of precip over two days is really going to get the job done, when you consider how dense environments/pavement have a tendency to eat away at snow, even with below-freezing temperatures. A 2 to 4 inch snow over two days could easily really end being a very minor event.. As a resident of DC for almost 30 years... it does snow here contrary to popular opinion. I don’t think this will have any problem sticking. Every time we have a snow drought period it’s really impacted the boards psyche. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Gonna hug the Mar 9, 1999 example the @Deck Pic threw out yesterday. That was a surprise over-performer, similar setup. I think the models have set the goal posts between Richmond and Baltimore, other than that Radar watching time tomorrow evening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, H2O said: The freakout over the euro really is odd given the GFS was the worst one. Even the crazy NAM is a good event. Well, we are here sitting with a min of 0.5” QPF after not having a warning-level event in a couple of years. Not feeling bad about northern MD. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Can someone smarter than me tell me what they're thinking about ratios on this? Seems plenty cold but soundings show very little lift in the DGZ for this event. WxBell showing Kuchera ratios around 8-10:1. Does that seem reasonable? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, chris21 said: As a resident of DC for almost 30 years... it does snow here contrary to popular opinion. I don’t think this will have any problem sticking. Every time we have a snow drought period it’s really impacted the boards psyche. I am not saying it won't stick, but one key of a good DC snow is at some point you need at least some good rates, or you tend to lose almost as much as you are gaining, especially if this is broken up over two daylight cycles. Temperatures may help this time, but temperatures usually end up warmer than modeled in the city, absent at least some good rates at some point during the "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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