psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The problem is the trend. 12z yesterday was 1.1 qpf, Oz .8, 12z today .6. This one is drying up before it even starts. This is not heading the right way unfortunately... 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think that a run to run change of like .15” of QPF is a major difference. EDIT: I guess if you multiply it over 3 runs then it’s an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The Euro QPF trend of being eaten away on the northern end has continued on the downward path since at least 12z yesterday, and has taken a huge hit today, though the max stripe in south central VA has remained steady. For those in the DC area and north, we need a shift by 00z tonight or else we're looking at a pretty mundane event. Edit: Ninja'd 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This thread has a completely different tone versus DT update 20 minutes ago.... 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves. Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z. eta...it's not so much that it's "south", its just weaker with both waves and has a little more arctic air push, particularly for wave 2. Wave 1 is just weak sauce. Quite a change even from 0z. Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves? I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days. Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: The Euro QPF trend of being eaten away on the northern end has continued on the downward path since at least 12z yesterday, and has taken a huge hit today, though the max stripe in south central VA has remained steady. For those in the DC area and north, we need a shift by 00z tonight or else we're looking at a pretty mundane event. Edit: Ninja'd I’ll take whatever we can get in dc. Euro still looks good for at least 3 inches and is the furthest south driest... Hopefully the trend stops at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: This thread has a completely different tone versus DT update 20 minutes ago.... Why the hell would DT hit the submit button on that post before the 12z Euro came out? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves? I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days. Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events. I am no met, but I was mentioning yesterday that these waves, from what I remember, are 3 to 5 inch snows.. the difference here is there were two waves instead of one which was doing better! Jut my 2 cents... This wave still looks like an overperformer for those perfectly set up. Again, not a met.. just going from memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is not heading the right way unfortunately... @Rvarookie What part of this "confuses" you? The euro has shown a distinct decrease in QPF and snowfall for 90% of everyone in this forum the last 5 runs in a row. That is a pretty bad trend when we are this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I wouldn't discount the euro, but it's the driest/weakest with these waves relative to the other guidance. And it hasn't exactly nailed our previous storms, whereas a blended forecast from the guidance has done pretty well. You’re the only one talking about blending the model guidance. I agree with you. Considering the precip max in the first wave is certainly not resolved yet, with the GFS, CMC, RGEM, 12Z NAM, even paltry 3K NAM all showing it near or north of DC, I don’t get the “foregone conclusion” feel in here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves? I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days. Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events. I agree, it makes sense to me...though I was hoping for at least .5-.6 precip. Temps arent an issue really so long as we get decent rates. A 5-9" total event would have been nice. But if EURO and 3K NAM are right its probably just a 1-3" total event in my area and wont pile up impressively without the rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, mattie g said: The Euro QPF trend of being eaten away on the northern end has continued on the downward path since at least 12z yesterday, and has taken a huge hit today, though the max stripe in south central VA has remained steady. For those in the DC area and north, we need a shift by 00z tonight or else we're looking at a pretty mundane event. Im gonna wait for 0z before sweating. it. Admittedly, it's a troubling development. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: This thread has a completely different tone versus DT update 20 minutes ago.... Where does DT live again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves? I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days. Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events. Yeah, I didn't buy the 12" stuff. But with a long duration event, a widespread 4-8" seems doable. Probably this works better in a Nino than a Nina. Whether it's the Nina or something else, we've definitely struggled to "close" these snow events we've had. We've lost ground in the last 48-72 hours every time this year. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right? 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Do Kuchera totals ever verify? It seems like since I've been following them for several years they're almost always universally high. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right? Sure if you wanna forecast based just off Kuchera snow maps...but for instance the EURO only shows .25-.3 preciptation in the Baltimore metro...that aint piling up to 5" over 30 hours like that euro snow maps shows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Why the hell would DT hit the submit button on that post before the 12z Euro came out? What's his handle on Twitter? Or do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where does DT live again? Chester, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 DT is always 6 hours behind on the models....its very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Sure if you wanna forecast based just off Kuchera snow maps...but for instance the EURO only shows .25-.3 preciptation in the Baltimore metro...that aint piling up to 5" over 30 hours like that euro snow maps shows Ok fair point. Blend these then. EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right? These are clown maps. You can cut them in half at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 feeling pretty solid with my call at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Ok fair point. Blend these then. Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Ok fair point. Blend these then. EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA. GFS managed to pretty much miss my yard with both waves. I am inclined to believe it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible Yeah, I get it. We want the Euro to be the most juiced, not the least. And of course we have to worry about trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: Do Kuchera totals ever verify? It seems like since I've been following them for several years they're almost always universally high. Kuchera tends to do pretty well imby. I am at 1550' and get higher than 10:1 frequently. I also can get lower than 10:1 of course, but Kuchera usually sniffs this out reasonably well also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im gonna wait for 0z before sweating. it. Admittedly, it's a troubling development. Same. The spidey senses are tingling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible I'd take the Euro/NAM over those two at this point. But at this point my confidence in 50 miles give or take is extremely low, which is becoming a good thing as we move away from the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WesternFringe said: Kuchera tends to do pretty well imby. I am at 1550' and get higher than 10:1 frequently. I also can get lower than 10:1 of course, but Kuchera usually sniffs this out reasonably well also. Maybe it's because my elevation is only like 105ft and about 1/4 mile from the bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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