mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I'm not even part of "all" anymore. sad sad day lol why would you be? we all know you'll get at least 6" share the wealth 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not even part of "all" anymore. sad sad day lol I amended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro by far the coldest it seems of all models. Very little ice in va. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hmmm this looks to be trending substantially drier from 0z with the high pressure and cold air winning out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Tough to draw the line but I'd call all of this "wave one." 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Tough to draw the line but I'd call all of this "wave one." Yikes, thats awful north of Reagan Natl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro insists on staying south with the good rates. .6 total qpf for Winchester. Meh. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves. Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z. eta...it's not so much that it's "south", its just weaker with both waves and has a little more arctic air push, particularly for wave 2. Wave 1 is just weak sauce. Quite a change even from 0z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves. Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z. Yep, NAM and Euro dry...doesnt that seem to be a good model combo lately? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 If you click through the last 5 Euro runs the trend is definitely not our friend. Trending away from anything particularly significant even in the DC metro. Of course I'd still take a 1-3 type event but it would be nice if this trend stopped now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 May finally have a nice storm in MBY.... Northern Neck of VA been since 2018. Euro seems to be done by Friday morning... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Well NAM is a little wetter than I thought I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yeah, best rates are south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ready to predict 2-4 inches in total for everything through Friday around Baltimore. Edit- Maybe more like 1-3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ill rephrase...Euro and 3K NAM (thru end of its run) are pretty dry. I think thats been a good model combo of late for QPF, but i could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Their details with wave 1 are quite different, but by Friday, the Euro and NAM generally agree on the biggest totals being south of DC (and perhaps well south), with a nasty cutoff for those living further northeast of DC. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The Euro could very well be wrong, but if it isn't, that's basically a non-event for almost the entire forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Part 2: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: why would you be? we all know you'll get at least 6" share the wealth Naw I think this one belongs to DC. We will get some snow up here but this is not the right kind of system for us to max out. Boundary temps aren't marginal so our advantage there is muted. The dominant surface flow during the precipitation is out of the north, that is not an upslope flow for us and its going to eat away at the moisture feed (which is really weak to begin with) along the northern fringes. This is not the kind of storm where our local meso climo helps very much. Doesn't mean we can't win...again if the whole boundary and WAA moisture feed were to shift north we would...but it wont be because of our local climo advantages this time. This has a lot in common with the WAA waves that can and do often fringe us up here. I am ok with that...and have set my bar accordingly. Expecting 2-4" maybe 3-5" up here probably at this time with more south of us. The second wave gaining just enough amplitude and lifting a bit north is probably our best chance to bust high on that. It's still far enough out in time that an error very within the normal goalposts puts us in play there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z: 06z: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The problem is the trend. 12z yesterday was 1.1 qpf, Oz .8, 12z today .6. This one is drying up before it even starts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: The Euro could very well be wrong, but if it isn't, that's basically a non-event for almost the entire forum. *almost* the entire forum. Southern Maryland still in the jackpot, though it does seem be drying up with each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 North trend does not appear to be kicking in. Looking like a mostly non-event for us NW folks if this trend is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wow, this is a little disappointing seems to happen with every storm but it still gives us 3-5 inches of snow in DC and all snow. There is still time for it to trend back towards us too but can't lie and say this is not a little disheartening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 If you want to see why the euro is doing what its doing then go look at the 500lvl page and watch the trend over Maine. There is a noticeable press sagging down each run which smushes flow and is why its nudging south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z: I really hope we get the 15:1 ratios that product keeps spitting out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I wouldn't discount the euro, but it's the driest/weakest with these waves relative to the other guidance. And it hasn't exactly nailed our previous storms, whereas a blended forecast from the guidance has done pretty well. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: If you want to see why the euro is doing what its doing then go look at the 500lvl page and watch the trend over Maine. There is a noticeable press sagging down each run which smushes flow and is why its nudging south. I love when you talk technical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'm glad everyone is still up on the DC area but I'm not sold that this is done trending south. Plus it's far from a jackpot here. Verbatim, I think this would be a 2-5" event here. You can cut the clown maps in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts