February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

[wendy]

What is the timing of the 2 waves of precip? 

Wave 1 is Wed night into Thursday morning, and then a pause and snow starts again Thurs night? (trying to plan a drive north on 95)

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

This may not be true. It's not an optimal snow growth setup. No crazy frontogen, uppler level dynamics or big lifting mechanism other than isentropic upglide. Will still be pretty snow if the rates are good. I'm not sold on sweet snowgrowth. Think of this as the warm air advection part of a coast. Not usually a 12/15/20:1 type of snowfall. But it's really cold upstairs so I could be wrong. Someone else or a met can add to or correct my thoughts. 

I don't think it will be that high...but up here higher ratios in general are common and I don't think the 11-1 it would take to make .55 qpf a 6" snowstorm is unrealistic even given the less ideal DGZ representation.  But this is getting REALLY REALLY REALLY nitpicky for a UK run.  So maybe they should have said 5-10" instead of 6-10 lol.  

[clskinsfan]

The NAM says 9:1 throughout the event for MRB. These Cobb outputs are usually pretty decent with ratio's IMO. 

210210/2100Z  33  12003KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   10:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
210210/2200Z  34  09003KT  31.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    9:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
210210/2300Z  35  07003KT  31.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    9:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
210211/0000Z  36  08004KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    9:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0100Z  37  07004KT  31.5F  SNOW   11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050    9:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0
210211/0200Z  38  08004KT  31.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    9:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
210211/0300Z  39  08005KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045    9:1|  2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0
210211/0400Z  40  09006KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    8:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30  100|  0|  0
210211/0500Z  41  09006KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    8:1|  2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35  100|  0|  0
210211/0600Z  42  09005KT  31.4F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    8:1|  3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0700Z  43  09006KT  31.2F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    8:1|  3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0
210211/0800Z  44  08005KT  31.0F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    9:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42  100|  0|  0
210211/0900Z  45  07006KT  31.4F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    9:1|  3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0
210211/1000Z  46  05006KT  31.2F  SNOW   16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    9:1|  3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0
210211/1100Z  47  04007KT  30.8F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45  100|  0|  0
210211/1200Z  48  03007KT  29.7F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    9:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/1300Z  49  03008KT  29.2F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    9:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48  100|  0|  0

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You have somehow avoided a flush hit and that’s kinda frustrating...I do get that everything has to be in perspective and given the amazingly good pattern you could easily have 10” more with some luck, but still you’re only like 4” from going above climo (I’m about 8) and that’s a very likely number to reach given the look ahead. So it’s not been that bad. 

i dont want to hit climo....we should be way above it. We have had a -AO/-NAO for 2 months in  a row

[jayyy]

We’re officially in the red!

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm trying to keep my glacier fetish at bay but it's not working... I stinking love complete coverage with a 1" lid of ice/crust on top. Takes forever to melt out and keeps grass covered till the bitter end. 

Omg yea. Technically 1994 was only mean snowfall up here but the local coop had snowcover from the first week of January until March 20 and at one point it was about 15” of half snow half ice!  That would have been awesome.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think it will be that high...but up here higher ratios in general are common and I don't think the 11-1 it would take to make .55 qpf a 6" snowstorm is unrealistic even given the less ideal DGZ representation.  But this is getting REALLY REALLY REALLY nitpicky for a UK run.  So maybe they should have said 5-10" instead of 6-10 lol.  

I was just talking in general. I didn't look at the UKIE. The follow up wave with slp scooting out to sea south of us could be more interesting in that regard. Kinda light qpf on the models but I'd guess verbatim it would be a pretty/fluffy snowfall. Time will tell. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

1/25- 0.3

1/31- 2.3

2/1-0.2

2/2-0.7

2/6-0.3

Sure, 3.2 was from one storm, I will grant you that, but it was over 2 full days. 

I guess you missed that day in school but 2 days is not the same as 6 days. The number 4 would like a word with you. 

[jayyy]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont want to hit climo....we should be way above it. We have had a -AO/-NAO for 2 months in  a row

That’s not how it works and you know that.  Having a -NAO/-AO doesn’t guarantee anything but the possibility of cold and blocking. PAC influence is huge, among a ton of other factors we talk about day to day. having a -AO & NAO certainly doesn’t mean we’ll hit climo BEFORE the snowiest month of the season even gets going.
 

Some of it is just plain bad luck and things not working out in the moment by 10 or 20 miles in any given direction. PSU’s and my area are less than 10” from climo, as are many other areas besides 95 and points east. Columbia is at 11” for the season in early February... pretty decent versus the previous few seasons if you ask @WxUSAF, even if it’s been a bumpy, sometimes frustrating ride to get there. 

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That’s not how it works and you know that.  Having a -NAO/-AO doesn’t guarantee anything but the possibility of cold and blocking. PAC influence is huge, among a ton of other factors we talk about day to day. having a -AO & NAO certainly doesn’t mean we’ll hit climo BEFORE the snowiest month of the season even gets going.
 

Some of it is just plain bad luck and things not working out in the moment by 10 or 20 miles in any given direction. PSU’s and my area are less than 10” from climo, as are many other areas besides 95 and points east. Columbia is at 17” for the season in early February... pretty solid if you ask @WxUSAF, even if it’s been a bumpy, sometimes frustrating ride to get there. 

11"...but still, not that bad.  Probably 75-80% of normal to date.  Hopefully 17" by Saturday...

[RIC_WX]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont want to hit climo....we should be way above it. We have had a -AO/-NAO for 2 months in  a row

What did you measure on Sunday morning?  Mine melted faster than I could get any kind of measurement with confidence.  If the snow was any wetter it would have fallen as rain.

[Baltimorewx]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

11"...but still, not that bad.  Probably 40-45% of normal to date.  Hopefully 17" by Saturday...

I was gonna say i didnt think Columbia was up to 17 yet lol..but still better than me as Im only at about 6"

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont want to hit climo....we should be way above it. We have had a -AO/-NAO for 2 months in  a row

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year. 

[jayyy]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

11"...but still, not that bad.  Probably 40-45% of normal to date.  Hopefully 17" by Saturday...

Oh crud! For some reason I thought you said 17” a few days back, my apologies!

[ovechkin]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess you missed that day in school but 2 days is not the same as 6 days. The number 4 would like a word with you. 

I said 5 or 6. It’s still 3.8 inches over 5 days. Yippie. Sorry for being off by one. Tough crowd here. Sheesh. 

[H2O]

Lets not clutter up the thread with this stuff.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Oh crud! For some reason I thought you said 17” a few days back, my apologies!

And I dorked up those percentages.  I was typing % of seasonal total normal to date.  Probably 75-80% of normal by this date.  

[aldie 22]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year. 

I'll take the under on that at best Leesburg is at 14" this year and that's being generous with measurements. I say when all is said and done Leesburg finishes with 24" which to me is a fine year, right on climo but I'm sure will be a great disappointment for some.

[frd]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year. 

Northern Delaware included I hope. HM seems annoyed  by models today and folks complaining.  I am watching that TPV out West. Strange changes today overall.  

[stormtracker]

43 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

1/25- 0.3

1/31- 2.3

2/1-0.2

2/2-0.7

2/6-0.3

Sure, 3.2 was from one storm, I will grant you that, but it was over 2 full days. 

My bad, I thought you were talking about model output for THESE upcoming waves

[LeesburgWx]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'll take the under on that at best Leesburg is at 14" this year and that's being generous with measurements. I say when all is said and done Leesburg finishes with 24" which to me is a fine year, right on climo but I'm sure will be a great disappointment for some.

I am not sure that is being generous with measurements. I measured, 3.5" in Dec, 7.5" in January, and 3" last week. Right in line with 14"-15" in downtown Leesburg. I do think we go north of 25" this year with the goal of 30"

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I am not sure that is being generous with measurements. I measured, 3.5" in Dec, 7.5" in January, and 3" last week. Right in line with 14"-15" in downtown Leesburg. I do think we go north of 25" this year with the goal of 30"

trust me, i'm pulling for you we got 29-30" in 2018-19 and if we do that again in 2020-2021 then two out of 3 years around 30" and yet some still complain excessively.

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'll take the under on that at best Leesburg is at 14" this year and that's being generous with measurements. I say when all is said and done Leesburg finishes with 24" which to me is a fine year, right on climo but I'm sure will be a great disappointment for some.

You guys got unlucky with dryslots so far this year. You could easily end up getting the bands with the next couple events though. It has been pure luck out here so far this year. 

[Deck Pic]

Euro temps not awful for Wednesday afternoon..upper 30s for the cities...snow commences mid to late afternoon

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Euro temps not awful for Wednesday afternoon..upper 30s for the cities...snow commences mid to late afternoon

Seems to be 6 hours ahead of schedule of 06z.

[stormtracker]

Wave.1 looks solid for most on the Euro.  On second viewing a little drier on the nrn front

[NorthArlington101]

Rain/snow line is well south of DC. Bisects Cville and stays along that E/W line.

[clskinsfan]

.2 qpf through 48. Drier this run. But not horrible. 

[psuhoffman]

@high risk something to keep in mind as this gets inside 30 hours or so....the NAM won that fight with all other guidance yesterday regarding the wave today to our north.  Everything else that showed a nice snow event in central PA into N NJ and NYC area busted and the NAM was right taking that north. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Wave.1 looks solid for all on the Euro

I'm not even part of "all" anymore.  sad sad day lol