stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 43 minutes ago, ovechkin said: 1/25- 0.3 1/31- 2.3 2/1-0.2 2/2-0.7 2/6-0.3 Sure, 3.2 was from one storm, I will grant you that, but it was over 2 full days. My bad, I thought you were talking about model output for THESE upcoming waves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'll take the under on that at best Leesburg is at 14" this year and that's being generous with measurements. I say when all is said and done Leesburg finishes with 24" which to me is a fine year, right on climo but I'm sure will be a great disappointment for some. I am not sure that is being generous with measurements. I measured, 3.5" in Dec, 7.5" in January, and 3" last week. Right in line with 14"-15" in downtown Leesburg. I do think we go north of 25" this year with the goal of 30" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I am not sure that is being generous with measurements. I measured, 3.5" in Dec, 7.5" in January, and 3" last week. Right in line with 14"-15" in downtown Leesburg. I do think we go north of 25" this year with the goal of 30" trust me, i'm pulling for you we got 29-30" in 2018-19 and if we do that again in 2020-2021 then two out of 3 years around 30" and yet some still complain excessively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'll take the under on that at best Leesburg is at 14" this year and that's being generous with measurements. I say when all is said and done Leesburg finishes with 24" which to me is a fine year, right on climo but I'm sure will be a great disappointment for some. You guys got unlucky with dryslots so far this year. You could easily end up getting the bands with the next couple events though. It has been pure luck out here so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Euro temps not awful for Wednesday afternoon..upper 30s for the cities...snow commences mid to late afternoon Seems to be 6 hours ahead of schedule of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wave.1 looks solid for most on the Euro. On second viewing a little drier on the nrn front 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Rain/snow line is well south of DC. Bisects Cville and stays along that E/W line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 .2 qpf through 48. Drier this run. But not horrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 @high risk something to keep in mind as this gets inside 30 hours or so....the NAM won that fight with all other guidance yesterday regarding the wave today to our north. Everything else that showed a nice snow event in central PA into N NJ and NYC area busted and the NAM was right taking that north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wave.1 looks solid for all on the Euro I'm not even part of "all" anymore. sad sad day lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I'm not even part of "all" anymore. sad sad day lol why would you be? we all know you'll get at least 6" share the wealth 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not even part of "all" anymore. sad sad day lol I amended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro by far the coldest it seems of all models. Very little ice in va. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hmmm this looks to be trending substantially drier from 0z with the high pressure and cold air winning out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Tough to draw the line but I'd call all of this "wave one." 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Tough to draw the line but I'd call all of this "wave one." Yikes, thats awful north of Reagan Natl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro insists on staying south with the good rates. .6 total qpf for Winchester. Meh. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves. Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z. eta...it's not so much that it's "south", its just weaker with both waves and has a little more arctic air push, particularly for wave 2. Wave 1 is just weak sauce. Quite a change even from 0z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves. Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z. Yep, NAM and Euro dry...doesnt that seem to be a good model combo lately? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 If you click through the last 5 Euro runs the trend is definitely not our friend. Trending away from anything particularly significant even in the DC metro. Of course I'd still take a 1-3 type event but it would be nice if this trend stopped now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 May finally have a nice storm in MBY.... Northern Neck of VA been since 2018. Euro seems to be done by Friday morning... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Well NAM is a little wetter than I thought I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yeah, best rates are south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ready to predict 2-4 inches in total for everything through Friday around Baltimore. Edit- Maybe more like 1-3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ill rephrase...Euro and 3K NAM (thru end of its run) are pretty dry. I think thats been a good model combo of late for QPF, but i could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Their details with wave 1 are quite different, but by Friday, the Euro and NAM generally agree on the biggest totals being south of DC (and perhaps well south), with a nasty cutoff for those living further northeast of DC. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The Euro could very well be wrong, but if it isn't, that's basically a non-event for almost the entire forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Part 2: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: why would you be? we all know you'll get at least 6" share the wealth Naw I think this one belongs to DC. We will get some snow up here but this is not the right kind of system for us to max out. Boundary temps aren't marginal so our advantage there is muted. The dominant surface flow during the precipitation is out of the north, that is not an upslope flow for us and its going to eat away at the moisture feed (which is really weak to begin with) along the northern fringes. This is not the kind of storm where our local meso climo helps very much. Doesn't mean we can't win...again if the whole boundary and WAA moisture feed were to shift north we would...but it wont be because of our local climo advantages this time. This has a lot in common with the WAA waves that can and do often fringe us up here. I am ok with that...and have set my bar accordingly. Expecting 2-4" maybe 3-5" up here probably at this time with more south of us. The second wave gaining just enough amplitude and lifting a bit north is probably our best chance to bust high on that. It's still far enough out in time that an error very within the normal goalposts puts us in play there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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