February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

[mappy]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

sorry... you are right and I am being nitpicky. But i literally make maps for a living so needing to read them correctly is a pet peeve.

but sorry all the same. 

 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Kinda splitting hairs here.  I think you'd do 6 with over .5 precip.  I didn't use the snow map but I will work on my map reading in the future.

you're fine. im being nitpicky. thanks for posting the output. 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

But that’s a 10-1 map.  I think you would be getting some high ratio powder up your way verbatim.

This may not be true. It's not an optimal snow growth setup. No crazy frontogen, uppler level dynamics or big lifting mechanism other than isentropic upglide. Will still be pretty snow if the rates are good. I'm not sold on sweet snowgrowth. Think of this as the warm air advection part of a coastal. Not usually a 12/15/20:1 type of snowfall. But it's really cold upstairs so I could be wrong. Someone else or a met can add to or correct my thoughts. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

sorry... you are right and I am being nitpicky. But i literally make maps for a living so needing to read them correctly is a pet peeve.

but sorry all the same. 

hah, no worries. It's a good reminder. That's why I often just post the maps and allow them to speak for themselves... often times when I try to call it a good run I get comments from the one part of the forum it wasn't a great run for, lol.

[Cobalt]

32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty paltry for a 2 and a half day storm.

Just throwing my $0.02 out there but as Bob and others have suggested (and what we're already kind of seeing it with wave 1 based on guidance), I'd imagine the storm consolidates a bit. I keep referencing Jan 12-14 2019 as a similar setup, but putting everything that happened with the storm other than duration aside, I recall models suggested that precip would stick with us until something like 06z-10z Monday, when in reality precip shut off like 12hrs+ sooner. I think it makes sense too, we're not sitting here with a stacked low sitting motionless offshore pivoting light bands of snow into us like last week's system did. The one takeaway I got from the 12z suite was that there seems to be an overlap of both waves, but other than that the totals for the entire event seem pretty uniform for a good chunk of our subforum. Still a pretty great way to kick off this stretch of wintry weather for sure. 

[BornAgain13]

Curious , how much of the UK is ICE? Or where is the SNOW/ICE line on the UK

[psuhoffman]

@mappy sorry I just saw the other posts...I was not trying to pile on, and your comment was 100% accurate going by the snow map...I was just trying to point out that in reality if the UK ACTUALLY was accurate it probably would be a 6-7" snow for us and others along the PA line.  

[jayyy]

Last storm I was glad I made the last second decision to stay put at my house due to the marginality of the event.... for this one, definitely still contemplating going a bit south to my brothers. W suburbs of DC/BAL appear to be a in a better spot for QPF with more than sufficient enough temps.  UK backs this notion for sure. 

Shocker... another event where we are within 48 hours from start time and we are still seeing a 2-12” spread on the models 

[deer]

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The Ukie and the Euro have been pretty consistent with this setup. If you blend the guidance and remove some of the high end Euro Kuchera totals, it seems 6-12 inches is a good forecast.  Sign me up

The differences in 10:1 totals between the Euro, UKIE RGEM, CMC for the general DC area are very slim

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

This may not be true. It's not an optimal snow growth setup. No crazy frontogen, uppler level dynamics or big lifting mechanism other than isentropic upglide. Will still be pretty snow if the rates are good. I'm not sold on sweet snowgrowth. Think of this as the warm air advection part of a coast. Not usually a 12/15/20:1 type of snowfall. But it's really cold upstairs so I could be wrong. Someone else or a met can add to or correct my thoughts. 

You're right.  GFS sounding for wave 1 probably supports 10-12:1.  NAM sounding probably 8-10:1.  Both of these for central MD...

[mappy]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

hah, no worries. It's a good reminder. That's why I often just post the maps and allow them to speak for themselves... often times when I try to call it a good run I get comments from the one part of the forum it wasn't a great run for, lol.

no, seriously. i was being nitpicky and kind of a biotch. its all good. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@mappy sorry I just saw the other posts...I was not trying to pile on, and your comment was 100% accurate going by the snow map...I was just trying to point out that in reality if the UK ACTUALLY was accurate it probably would be a 6-7" snow for us and others along the PA line.  

you're fine, everyone was right to call me out over it. gotta take the GIS hat off sometimes lol.

[wendy]

What is the timing of the 2 waves of precip? 

Wave 1 is Wed night into Thursday morning, and then a pause and snow starts again Thurs night? (trying to plan a drive north on 95)

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

This may not be true. It's not an optimal snow growth setup. No crazy frontogen, uppler level dynamics or big lifting mechanism other than isentropic upglide. Will still be pretty snow if the rates are good. I'm not sold on sweet snowgrowth. Think of this as the warm air advection part of a coast. Not usually a 12/15/20:1 type of snowfall. But it's really cold upstairs so I could be wrong. Someone else or a met can add to or correct my thoughts. 

I don't think it will be that high...but up here higher ratios in general are common and I don't think the 11-1 it would take to make .55 qpf a 6" snowstorm is unrealistic even given the less ideal DGZ representation.  But this is getting REALLY REALLY REALLY nitpicky for a UK run.  So maybe they should have said 5-10" instead of 6-10 lol.  

[clskinsfan]

The NAM says 9:1 throughout the event for MRB. These Cobb outputs are usually pretty decent with ratio's IMO. 

210210/2100Z  33  12003KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   10:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
210210/2200Z  34  09003KT  31.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    9:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
210210/2300Z  35  07003KT  31.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    9:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
210211/0000Z  36  08004KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    9:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0100Z  37  07004KT  31.5F  SNOW   11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050    9:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0
210211/0200Z  38  08004KT  31.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    9:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
210211/0300Z  39  08005KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045    9:1|  2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0
210211/0400Z  40  09006KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    8:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30  100|  0|  0
210211/0500Z  41  09006KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    8:1|  2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35  100|  0|  0
210211/0600Z  42  09005KT  31.4F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    8:1|  3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0700Z  43  09006KT  31.2F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    8:1|  3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0
210211/0800Z  44  08005KT  31.0F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    9:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42  100|  0|  0
210211/0900Z  45  07006KT  31.4F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    9:1|  3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0
210211/1000Z  46  05006KT  31.2F  SNOW   16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    9:1|  3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0
210211/1100Z  47  04007KT  30.8F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45  100|  0|  0
210211/1200Z  48  03007KT  29.7F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    9:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/1300Z  49  03008KT  29.2F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    9:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48  100|  0|  0

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You have somehow avoided a flush hit and that’s kinda frustrating...I do get that everything has to be in perspective and given the amazingly good pattern you could easily have 10” more with some luck, but still you’re only like 4” from going above climo (I’m about 8) and that’s a very likely number to reach given the look ahead. So it’s not been that bad. 

i dont want to hit climo....we should be way above it. We have had a -AO/-NAO for 2 months in  a row

[jayyy]

We’re officially in the red!

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm trying to keep my glacier fetish at bay but it's not working... I stinking love complete coverage with a 1" lid of ice/crust on top. Takes forever to melt out and keeps grass covered till the bitter end. 

Omg yea. Technically 1994 was only mean snowfall up here but the local coop had snowcover from the first week of January until March 20 and at one point it was about 15” of half snow half ice!  That would have been awesome.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think it will be that high...but up here higher ratios in general are common and I don't think the 11-1 it would take to make .55 qpf a 6" snowstorm is unrealistic even given the less ideal DGZ representation.  But this is getting REALLY REALLY REALLY nitpicky for a UK run.  So maybe they should have said 5-10" instead of 6-10 lol.  

I was just talking in general. I didn't look at the UKIE. The follow up wave with slp scooting out to sea south of us could be more interesting in that regard. Kinda light qpf on the models but I'd guess verbatim it would be a pretty/fluffy snowfall. Time will tell. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

1/25- 0.3

1/31- 2.3

2/1-0.2

2/2-0.7

2/6-0.3

Sure, 3.2 was from one storm, I will grant you that, but it was over 2 full days. 

I guess you missed that day in school but 2 days is not the same as 6 days. The number 4 would like a word with you. 

[jayyy]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont want to hit climo....we should be way above it. We have had a -AO/-NAO for 2 months in  a row

That’s not how it works and you know that.  Having a -NAO/-AO doesn’t guarantee anything but the possibility of cold and blocking. PAC influence is huge, among a ton of other factors we talk about day to day. having a -AO & NAO certainly doesn’t mean we’ll hit climo BEFORE the snowiest month of the season even gets going.
 

Some of it is just plain bad luck and things not working out in the moment by 10 or 20 miles in any given direction. PSU’s and my area are less than 10” from climo, as are many other areas besides 95 and points east. Columbia is at 11” for the season in early February... pretty decent versus the previous few seasons if you ask @WxUSAF, even if it’s been a bumpy, sometimes frustrating ride to get there. 

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That’s not how it works and you know that.  Having a -NAO/-AO doesn’t guarantee anything but the possibility of cold and blocking. PAC influence is huge, among a ton of other factors we talk about day to day. having a -AO & NAO certainly doesn’t mean we’ll hit climo BEFORE the snowiest month of the season even gets going.
 

Some of it is just plain bad luck and things not working out in the moment by 10 or 20 miles in any given direction. PSU’s and my area are less than 10” from climo, as are many other areas besides 95 and points east. Columbia is at 17” for the season in early February... pretty solid if you ask @WxUSAF, even if it’s been a bumpy, sometimes frustrating ride to get there. 

11"...but still, not that bad.  Probably 75-80% of normal to date.  Hopefully 17" by Saturday...

[RIC_WX]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont want to hit climo....we should be way above it. We have had a -AO/-NAO for 2 months in  a row

What did you measure on Sunday morning?  Mine melted faster than I could get any kind of measurement with confidence.  If the snow was any wetter it would have fallen as rain.

[Baltimorewx]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

11"...but still, not that bad.  Probably 40-45% of normal to date.  Hopefully 17" by Saturday...

I was gonna say i didnt think Columbia was up to 17 yet lol..but still better than me as Im only at about 6"

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont want to hit climo....we should be way above it. We have had a -AO/-NAO for 2 months in  a row

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year. 

[jayyy]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

11"...but still, not that bad.  Probably 40-45% of normal to date.  Hopefully 17" by Saturday...

Oh crud! For some reason I thought you said 17” a few days back, my apologies!

[ovechkin]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess you missed that day in school but 2 days is not the same as 6 days. The number 4 would like a word with you. 

I said 5 or 6. It’s still 3.8 inches over 5 days. Yippie. Sorry for being off by one. Tough crowd here. Sheesh. 

[H2O]

Lets not clutter up the thread with this stuff.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Oh crud! For some reason I thought you said 17” a few days back, my apologies!

And I dorked up those percentages.  I was typing % of seasonal total normal to date.  Probably 75-80% of normal by this date.  

[aldie 22]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year. 

I'll take the under on that at best Leesburg is at 14" this year and that's being generous with measurements. I say when all is said and done Leesburg finishes with 24" which to me is a fine year, right on climo but I'm sure will be a great disappointment for some.

[frd]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year. 

Northern Delaware included I hope. HM seems annoyed  by models today and folks complaining.  I am watching that TPV out West. Strange changes today overall.