VA Mad Man Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Lol, we’re going to be too south for Wave 1 and too north for Wave 2. Can you say "DC Split?" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Pretty decebones slug of moisture for Wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 wave 2 seems to have lost its luster...i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Part 2 is kinda meh...most of all of us get precip but its just light..part 1 is heavier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS is a little more south on wave 2, but just generally weaker. So mixier for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, VA Mad Man said: Can you say "DC Split?" No, because there isn't one. We get hit by both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: GFS is a little more south on wave 2, but just generally weaker. So mixier for VA. Yup, GFS is weaksauce with wave 2. So far seems to be the only one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: GFS is a little more south on wave 2, but just generally weaker. So mixier for VA. Huh. Seems like most other guidance has Wave 2 as the stronger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Here's the 24 hour precip panel for wave 2. Less sluggy and much less dece than wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Paleocene said: Here's the 24 hour precip panel for wave 2. Less sluggy and much less dece than wave 1 not even close to what 00z showed for wave 2 per gfs. getting sick of stuff falling apart as it closes in on us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM soundings for wave 1 are kinda meh as Pete Mullinax posted on twitter and was quoted here. GFS, on the other hand, looks quite nice for early Thursday morning for most of MD. Good lift in the DGZ and fully saturated. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2021020912&fh=48&domain=-77.74,-75.53,38.96,39.57&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Which part of Va? Asking for a friend Central. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: not even close to what 00z showed for wave 2 per gfs. getting sick of stuff falling apart as it closes in on us i grabbed wrong panel - updated post to reflect the correct 24 h window, but still not super juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Here's the 24 hour precip panel for wave 2. Less sluggy and much less dece than wave 1 That’s not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Total GFS Precip for both waves... all snow ~ north of Rt. 50 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 both waves still reach us and i don't see much change with the waa at 850, but looks like precip has been getting cut back slightly the last several runs. that might just be because there's not much of a surface reflection at all. the weekend system is the one that looks like it could trend better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: not even close to what 00z showed for wave 2 per gfs. getting sick of stuff falling apart as it closes in on us You have somehow avoided a flush hit and that’s kinda frustrating...I do get that everything has to be in perspective and given the amazingly good pattern you could easily have 10” more with some luck, but still you’re only like 4” from going above climo (I’m about 8) and that’s a very likely number to reach given the look ahead. So it’s not been that bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You have somehow avoided a flush hit and that’s kinda frustrating...I do get that everything has to be in perspective and given the amazingly good pattern you could easily have 10” more with some luck, but still you’re only like 4” from going above climo (I’m about 8) and that’s a very likely number to reach given the look ahead. So it’s not been that bad. Some of the frustration/pessimism from many in this forum is that despite a great pattern, multiple threats, and multiple WSWs, many of us are in that boat. Here in Towson, which usually does pretty well in the snow department (for Central MD, at least), our best event was 4 droopy inches over 3 days...and we just went from a 4-7-inch WSW to a slushy half inch of nothing. Favored spots N and W always do better - and that's to be expected - but the dichotomy is starker than usual, and some suburban locations that usually do respectably have been underperforming so far - and that's after several years of almost nothing. We need a forum-wide overperformer for morale, if nothing else, so seeing the first signs of concern for this already unusual event is simply going to evoke that "here we go again" feeling for a lotttt of folks. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You have somehow avoided a flush hit and that’s kinda frustrating...I do get that everything has to be in perspective and given the amazingly good pattern you could easily have 10” more with some luck, but still you’re only like 4” from going above climo (I’m about 8) and that’s a very likely number to reach given the look ahead. So it’s not been that bad. I wish I was that close to climo... BWI region has had it much worse than NoVA this year, so... perspective. I think BWI climo is 18" and we've seen around 7-8". Not sure what their official tally is at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Canadian not bad...looks nice at 42 hours...Wave 2 is ok but still overall weak ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The GFS did cut back on total qpf. But it brought it more in line with the other models. A lot of that qpf for the Winchester area comes from a lucky band with the second wave. In the end I think this ends up a 4-8 event for everyone. Cant really complain about that. Except the fact that it takes 2 full days to get there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 CMC also looks weaker on the second wave. Maybe a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 DC-south Balt jackpot on canadian...6-8" but majority of it from wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3.8 at DCA, spread over 5 or 6 days total. LOL. Other urban hear islands in the northeast have done more than cash in. Just give me decent temps at all levels and I’ll take my chances with QPF. Systems this season have not been moisture starved. Not going to fret about a 0.1 change from run to run. I will fret if we are at 32-33 but have that extra 0.1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GGEM and RGEM both are pretty uniform forum-wide winners. 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Curious to see what the gefs says about Thursday night/Fri and especially the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Come on Canada, please be right for once. So the 12z models thus far paint 0-12in somewhere between Fredericksburg to the Mason Dixon line. Good luck NWS on this forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This looks tasty... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Curious to see what the gefs says about Thursday night/Fri and especially the weekend Looks very similar to the op on qpf. Best outside the mountains is 0.5 to 0.6 qpf. Less narrow with the best precip but kinda expected from an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 yea, i'd definitely sign on for the raptor model. gotta see what euro has to say about all of this. we're close enough to tipoff to start reaching a consenus, at least for wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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