LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Definitely a bump north with the second wave, Ezf to Richmond crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Don't like the cutoff on the NE edge from 57 to 60. There is almost no overlap on the NAM between the two waves. You get hit by one or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: Don't like the cutoff on the NE edge from 57 to 60. Yeah, at 63, it got sheared down a little north of I-70. Still wouldn't worry up there. I'd rather be up there than here, I don't care what the NAM shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM 12k is a ways north and stronger with the second wave compared to the last run. Still fringes Baltimore and northward but getting closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The first wave. Lol this map is all over the place. Ah, the famous Laurel bullseye! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, at 63, it got sheared down a little north of I-70. Still wouldn't worry up there. I'd rather be up there than here, I don't care what the NAM shows. I'm not concerned by verbatim NAM output. I'm just looking for general moves/tells. Edit: Let's see if my "theory" about the NAM "leading the way" in the quite holds true. Precip increased on the northern edge for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The second wave seems to be the main show. Let’s hope that hits most of us squarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I tried my best to break out both waves, but I am missing some around the edges only having a 12hr period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, ovechkin said: The only “worry” from this run is marginal temps. We simply don’t do marginal well anymore. Hopefully it’s not correct since no support from other models temp wise. Definitely. The NAM does show dewpoints around 27-29 with a temp of 33 during moderate snow at night. Would imagine wet bulbing would be more effective... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The NAM definitely ticked north with the second wave. Best run from that model for my area yet. Good trends so far at 12z IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Would have liked to see a few more frames of the 3km, definitely a big north bump on wave 2, a little more so than the 12km. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3k pretty far north with the 2nd round. Gets precip to Baltimore. Albeit light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Awilson said: when do you guys think watches/warning will come out? NEVER. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: NEVER. based on the current projections sir, that seems like a untrue statement lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Awilson said: based on the current projections sir, that seems like a untrue statement lol I am a ma'am, thank you very much. On a serious note: LWX may post them later today. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, mappy said: I am a ma'am, thank you very much. On a serious note: LWX may post them later today. my apologies ma'am, thank you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This is a cut and dry question - and the reason why we try to lean away from having people ask "when will watches be issued" It's cut and dry in the watch definition. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined - that is an EXCELLENT resource page for newer members. Winter Storm Watch A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period AND/OR 2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. AND/OR 3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Watch for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period) 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Heavier wave 1 for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Heavier wave 1 for sure 0.6 QPF around DC, temps a touch cooler than the NAM too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ICON looking thumpier for wave 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wave 2 is slowly creeping north on the trend map but not there yet (RGEM) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: 0.6 QPF around DC, temps a touch cooler than the NAM too. Second slug better come on up to papa. I think we'll get in on that one and maybe even heavier? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Ravens94 said: Wave 2 is slowly creeping north on the trend map but not there yet (RGEM) ? Looks like it got this entire subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: ? Looks like it got this entire subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ? Looks like it got this entire subforum? 3K was looking really good for wave 2 and the run stopped smh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ? Looks like it got this entire subforum? 2nd wave is 0.1 from northern moco to .5 around fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tito Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: It looks active going forward so there will be opportunities, and thats all you can ask for really. Your area has had more bad luck so far than places around you. 2 hours ago, frd said: Very difficult to get snow North of Dover this year . Two winter storm warnings and about 4 inches combined. Either WAA dies before it reaches us, or storm development is off to the North or we are not in an area for the best dynamics. Your area has done better. Really thought the baroclinic boundary would deliver. Will it ever, I am not sure. Even next week looks questionable. The 240 hour look does not favor the same areas that have been screwed over and over. Rooting for you both and of course all for that fact. Still there is the potential with this setup for our area rather then the usual 45 and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ? Looks like it got this entire subforum? Rates are much worse north of DC, still favors the southern areas. But an improvement overall. edit: actually it’s a bit worse in my area and NE. There’s a NW-SE fringe. Went from 5 to more like 4 inches of snow per RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 You are going to get a more expansive precip shield with these jet dynamics. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 King icon 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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