Chris78 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Has snow into DC metro by 5-6 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM doesn't look south to me so far. If anything might be too norther At hour 30 looks better in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Actually looks about the same, cut off of precip so far is DC. But definitely still the only one this far on the northern envelope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Precip looks healthier on the NAM through 39. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Seriously, at this point can we put any faith in the NAM? Thinking that my thinking is strictly gonna be a blend of the globals. Short range models seem to be going with the shotgun approach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Seriously, at this point can we put any faith in the NAM? Thinking that my thinking is strictly gonna be a blend of the globals. Short range models seem to be going with the shotgun approach I feel like the NAM is giving us a feeling as to where the globals will adjust during the same suite. Maybe that's confirmation bias or something, but it does feel like the NAM "sets the stage" for adjustments in the suite, even if those adjustments aren't to be taken literally. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I feel like the NAM is giving us a feeling as to where the globals will adjust during the same suite. Maybe that's confirmation bias or something, but it does feel like the NAM "sets the stage" for adjustments in the suite, even if those adjustments aren't to be taken literally. Not sure that's true for this one tho. GFS/Euro definitely haven;'t been following the NAM the last few cycles. They've gone the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Oh look... It's the last second north tick that's happened all year. This year it seems that if you want the goods, you want to be north fringed at 48-72h, ideally worrying about suppression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 We have been down this road before... The best snows are most always north of where the models have them in the overrunning situation... I would not be surprised to see it in south central PA tomorrow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM is also much warmer in DC than GFS and Euro with the first wave; 32-33 vs 27-28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Definitely looking like a NAM’ing so far. QPF upped by a couple tenths in the first wave, also brought north a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Better angle for the precip shield for round 2 so far, well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: Oh look... It's the last second north tick that's happened all year. This year it seems that if you want the goods, you want to be north fringed at 48-72h Sure a north tick or 2 is possible but this system is nothing like the others. This can go further south just as likely as bumping north. Set up is entirely different from the storms that came north in the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Total for DC immediate area looks to be about .4 with the first wave? I can't tell for sure with these maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM qpf pretty similar to the HRRR with the first wave. Just a sharper cutoff to the south. 4-6 for the winchester area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Total for DC immediate area looks to be about .4? I can't tell for sure with these maps 0.4 to 0.6 right around DC for part 1, temps marginal throughout though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Kind of a different look 12z NAM with the second wave. Seems more consolidated and heavier. I like the angle of attack so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: 0.4 to 0.6 right around DC for part 1, temps marginal throughout though. You gotta ride the danger line to get that sweet QPF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 The NAM wants to sneak a warm layer at ~800mb to DC. Not sure that it is realistic based on all the other modeling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not sure that's true for this one tho. GFS/Euro definitely haven;'t been following the NAM the last few cycles. They've gone the other way Perhaps...and I'm always up for my intuitions being proven dumb. I'm curious to see what happens with the 12z globals and how they do or don't line up with 12z NAM shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Second wave looks juiced on this run at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The first wave. Lol this map is all over the place. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Maybe its just me, but the second wave looks to be benefiting from a little more space from the first impulse. Looks impressive through 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: The first wave. Lol this map is all over the place. lol yup. Name is changing jacks around on every run. And now has a break in the precip. I hope nobody is worried that this is the final, locked in solution. Even at this "late" hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: The first wave. Lol this map is all over the place. Those lollies are never to be trusted other than to see that lollies are possible - location and amount of poundage *always* TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 60 hours...incoming on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: lol yup. Name is changing jacks around on every run. And now has a break in the precip. I hope nobody is worried that this is the final, locked in solution. Even at this "late" hour. The 12k and 3k look nothing alike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: 60 hours...incoming on the NAM Don't like the cutoff on the NE edge from 57 to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The only “worry” from this run is marginal temps. We simply don’t do marginal well anymore. Hopefully it’s not correct since no support from other models temp wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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