PCT_ATC Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I think Mount Holly nailed it as usual. The initial wave is weak/weakening as it moves east. They are thinking 1-3 here. The second wave is a bit more juiced, but the trends are further south with that. Need a couple ticks north in the next few model cycles. no we dont.. stop stealing my digital snow! its fine right where it lays! but I agree the real deal is going to be that second wave. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, PCT_ATC said: no we dont.. stop stealing my digital snow! its fine right where it lays! but I agree the real deal is going to be that second wave. Its not a problem out where you are. The further east you go, the more influence from that dry tongue to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: The confluence/HP to the north is a tad problematic on recent runs, especially as the wave moves further east. Drier air is eating away at the precip just to the NE. Need that to be an issue up in eastern PA and NJ, not here. Totally agree. If that confluence relaxes just a tad, then we'll see that QPF field expand north. As it is, it's getting squeezed from the north, but the southern edge isn't budging. I'd imagine we'll see some better-than-normal ratios on the northern edge of the best precip - lots of fluff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The following is from the Capital Weather Gang's 5:31 AM bulletin. Any idea as to why their level of confidence is "low"? Is it simply the fact that the precipitation isn't expected to arrive until very early Thursday? Is it concerns about the precipitation type? Suppression? the UHI? To my untrained eye it seems like this system is more straightforward than most. It is mostly overrunning and doesn't rely on an on-time phase, dynamic cooling, or a well positioned CCB. I mean if they use "low" here what adjectives are left for most storms. Thursday should start with more snow, but some wintry mix remains possible, especially south of the District. We may see a precipitation break for a few hours in the afternoon as highs hold only in the 30s. Thursday night should see precipitation pick back up again. It’s most likely to be in the form of snow as temperatures fall into the 20s, but mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out. Confidence: Low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I agree for the most part. I mean obviously for my back yard south isn’t bad. But i really believe this is where we want ii for what is probably The inevitable tick north. But of course now that we want a slight tick north we won’t get it. I wouldn’t assume a north trend. This is more similar to some of the waves over the years that didn’t. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I think Mount Holly nailed it as usual. The initial wave is weak/weakening as it moves east, They are thinking 1-3 here. The second wave is a bit more juiced, but the trends are further south with that. Need a couple ticks north in the next few model cycles. Very difficult to get snow North of Dover this year . Two winter storm warnings and about 4 inches combined. Either WAA dies before it reaches us, or storm development is off to the North or we are not in an area for the best dynamics. Your area has done better. Really thought the baroclinic boundary would deliver. Will it ever, I am not sure. Even next week looks questionable. The 240 hour look does not favor the same areas that have been screwed over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ve only taken a quick look this morning, but seems the euro paints max precip amounts just a bit south of where the gfs+GGEM/RGEM do (just south of DC vs near BWI) for wave 1. Wave 2 looks more similar across guidance. Shift the euro north by like 20-30mi for wave 1 and you’d see pretty good consensus. I don't think northern tier people need to sweat things as much. What we see time and again isn't so much a sudden precip shift but the benefit of cold air, confluence and ortho lift. The northern crew gets help from the precip that does get up that way and is squeezed out due to HP on the north side and juice wrung out thanks to elevation. Why else does the deathband set up where it does 9/10 times? Ratios are better as well so you all do more with less. DC needs 1" qpf to get 6" snow and y'all roll with .4" qpf and get 8" cause you get the cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t assume a north trend. This is more similar to some of the waves over the years that didn’t. yeah.. I feel like when you have a coastal developing and LP moving in an Northeastern trajectory, slight variations in strength and upper level steering can lead to a north trend.. but in this case we have a moderate overrunning event with a boundary layer. HP to our north is the dominant feature.. so it doesnt set the stage for the typical north trend right before game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, H2O said: I don't think northern tier people need to sweat things as much. What we see time and again isn't so much a sudden precip shift but the benefit of cold air, confluence and ortho lift. The northern crew gets help from the precip that does get up that way and is squeezed out due to HP on the north side and juice wrung out thanks to elevation. Why else does the deathband set up where it does 9/10 times? Ratios are better as well so you all do more with less. DC needs 1" qpf to get 6" snow and y'all roll with .4" qpf and get 8" cause you get the cold air. Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, frd said: Very difficult to get snow North of Dover this year . Two winter storm warnings and about 4 inches combined. Either WAA dies before it reaches us, or storm development is off to the North or we are not in an area for the best dynamics. Your area has done better. Really thought the baroclinic boundary would deliver. Will it ever, I am not sure. Even next week looks questionable. The 240 hour look does not favor the same areas that have been screwed over and over. It looks active going forward so there will be opportunities, and thats all you can ask for really. Your area has had more bad luck so far than places around you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The upside on this could be... really substantial for basically the whole forum. I know it never pans out but here's the 1 in 10 chance map.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here. You still have a S wind component at the onset. where that hits the confluence it will maximize precip. Just watch. Your cold temps help. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here. The Chill storm was a cutter into Ky. Not the same at all IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here. I suspect you may still end up around 6" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: The upside on this could be... really substantial for basically the whole forum. I know it never pans out but here's the 1 in 10 chance map.. I appreciate the optimism but probabilities work both ways 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, catoctin wx said: I appreciate the optimism but probabilities work both ways Look if I can just reach the low end of the "expected snowfall" range I will be content. But hope endures. Also, really my main point here is that Sterling's thoughts on upside potential across many parts of the forum went from like 5-7" to 12-14" in a day. That's not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 38 minutes ago, frd said: Very difficult to get snow North of Dover this year . Two winter storm warnings and about 4 inches combined. Either WAA dies before it reaches us, or storm development is off to the North or we are not in an area for the best dynamics. Your area has done better. Really thought the baroclinic boundary would deliver. Will it ever, I am not sure. Even next week looks questionable. The 240 hour look does not favor the same areas that have been screwed over and over. You’ve been incredibly unlucky. The first two storms Newark to Hockessin to Wilmington did much better than you. This last one south of you did better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z HRRR is beautiful for the DC area with the first wave. Two distinct camps right now. The Euro and CMC favor central VA. The American models favor DC and west for the highest qpf. Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. But sign me up for what the HRRR is selling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. At what point does this stop being that crazy? It's happened with every storm this winter 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12z HRRR is beautiful for the DC area with the first wave. Two distinct camps right now. The Euro and CMC favor central VA. The American models favor DC and west for the highest qpf. Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. But sign me up for what the HRRR is selling. I think 2-4" mostly area wide is a solid call and bet for wave 1. The ultimate question is with wave 2. It also has more upside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 SREFS are wetter if not more north FWIW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12z HRRR is beautiful for the DC area with the first wave. Two distinct camps right now. The Euro and CMC favor central VA. The American models favor DC and west for the highest qpf. Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. But sign me up for what the HRRR is selling. What about for the area in which you actually live? How does it look for that LOL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What about for the area in which you actually live? How does it look for that LOL? First wave is 4-6 for our area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12z HRRR is beautiful for the DC area with the first wave. Two distinct camps right now. The Euro and CMC favor central VA. The American models favor DC and west for the highest qpf. Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. But sign me up for what the HRRR is selling. It doesn't seem that crazy to me. The area of decent snow is pretty small. It's still 36 hours before it even begins, and the difference in areas that get the goods is not that great. If you take a blend, it's basically DC in the perfect spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Wait, the SREFS are not north? He's saying if anything, it's north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: He's saying if anything, it's north. Yeah I can’t really tell much from those awful NCEP maps. It didn’t really look as much north as it did maybe more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: He's saying if anything, it's north. Ok, didn't quite understand that. In my experience the SREFs are always amped and north, hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: Ok, didn't quite understand that. In my experience the SREFs are always amped and north, hahaha. I don’t know about that but I never trust them no matter what. But this close you’d think they should be able to give a little clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t know about that but I never trust them no matter what. But this close you’d think they should be able to give a little clue I don't trust them either, but to be honest I don't know what to trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM doesn't look south to me so far. If anything might be too norther 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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