Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12z HRRR is beautiful for the DC area with the first wave. Two distinct camps right now. The Euro and CMC favor central VA. The American models favor DC and west for the highest qpf. Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. But sign me up for what the HRRR is selling. I think 2-4" mostly area wide is a solid call and bet for wave 1. The ultimate question is with wave 2. It also has more upside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 SREFS are wetter if not more north FWIW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12z HRRR is beautiful for the DC area with the first wave. Two distinct camps right now. The Euro and CMC favor central VA. The American models favor DC and west for the highest qpf. Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. But sign me up for what the HRRR is selling. What about for the area in which you actually live? How does it look for that LOL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What about for the area in which you actually live? How does it look for that LOL? First wave is 4-6 for our area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12z HRRR is beautiful for the DC area with the first wave. Two distinct camps right now. The Euro and CMC favor central VA. The American models favor DC and west for the highest qpf. Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. But sign me up for what the HRRR is selling. It doesn't seem that crazy to me. The area of decent snow is pretty small. It's still 36 hours before it even begins, and the difference in areas that get the goods is not that great. If you take a blend, it's basically DC in the perfect spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Wait, the SREFS are not north? He's saying if anything, it's north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: He's saying if anything, it's north. Yeah I can’t really tell much from those awful NCEP maps. It didn’t really look as much north as it did maybe more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: He's saying if anything, it's north. Ok, didn't quite understand that. In my experience the SREFs are always amped and north, hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: Ok, didn't quite understand that. In my experience the SREFs are always amped and north, hahaha. I don’t know about that but I never trust them no matter what. But this close you’d think they should be able to give a little clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t know about that but I never trust them no matter what. But this close you’d think they should be able to give a little clue I don't trust them either, but to be honest I don't know what to trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM doesn't look south to me so far. If anything might be too norther 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Has snow into DC metro by 5-6 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM doesn't look south to me so far. If anything might be too norther At hour 30 looks better in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Actually looks about the same, cut off of precip so far is DC. But definitely still the only one this far on the northern envelope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Precip looks healthier on the NAM through 39. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Seriously, at this point can we put any faith in the NAM? Thinking that my thinking is strictly gonna be a blend of the globals. Short range models seem to be going with the shotgun approach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Seriously, at this point can we put any faith in the NAM? Thinking that my thinking is strictly gonna be a blend of the globals. Short range models seem to be going with the shotgun approach I feel like the NAM is giving us a feeling as to where the globals will adjust during the same suite. Maybe that's confirmation bias or something, but it does feel like the NAM "sets the stage" for adjustments in the suite, even if those adjustments aren't to be taken literally. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I feel like the NAM is giving us a feeling as to where the globals will adjust during the same suite. Maybe that's confirmation bias or something, but it does feel like the NAM "sets the stage" for adjustments in the suite, even if those adjustments aren't to be taken literally. Not sure that's true for this one tho. GFS/Euro definitely haven;'t been following the NAM the last few cycles. They've gone the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Oh look... It's the last second north tick that's happened all year. This year it seems that if you want the goods, you want to be north fringed at 48-72h, ideally worrying about suppression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 We have been down this road before... The best snows are most always north of where the models have them in the overrunning situation... I would not be surprised to see it in south central PA tomorrow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM is also much warmer in DC than GFS and Euro with the first wave; 32-33 vs 27-28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Definitely looking like a NAM’ing so far. QPF upped by a couple tenths in the first wave, also brought north a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Better angle for the precip shield for round 2 so far, well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: Oh look... It's the last second north tick that's happened all year. This year it seems that if you want the goods, you want to be north fringed at 48-72h Sure a north tick or 2 is possible but this system is nothing like the others. This can go further south just as likely as bumping north. Set up is entirely different from the storms that came north in the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Total for DC immediate area looks to be about .4 with the first wave? I can't tell for sure with these maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM qpf pretty similar to the HRRR with the first wave. Just a sharper cutoff to the south. 4-6 for the winchester area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Total for DC immediate area looks to be about .4? I can't tell for sure with these maps 0.4 to 0.6 right around DC for part 1, temps marginal throughout though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Kind of a different look 12z NAM with the second wave. Seems more consolidated and heavier. I like the angle of attack so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: 0.4 to 0.6 right around DC for part 1, temps marginal throughout though. You gotta ride the danger line to get that sweet QPF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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