February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

[mattie g]

One thing that stood out to me with the 00z Euro is that the northern edge of the QPF field has really been eaten away the last couple runs, with northern MD now running from 0.3-0.5" total for the duration, with similar decreases down to just about a line from Alexandra/Warrenton. The area south of that has remained pretty steady, so to me it seems the goalposts are beginning to narrow on keeping the most moisture in central VA. We have time, but I'm not sure we'll see any huge adjustments, though even just a 20-mile shift in that northern edge will make a huge difference for a lot of folks.

Edit: The 6z euro map shows exactly what I was talking about. Northern edge is getting gobbled up.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I agree for the most part.  I mean obviously for my back yard south isn’t bad. But i really believe this is where we want ii for what is probably The inevitable tick north.  But of course now that we want a slight tick north we won’t get it.  

I've never been one to care about getting the highest totals for any storm, not my style....I just want to be invited to the party to hold up a wall and look at everyone else having fun. Maybe this is the one that gets DC and the Southern burbs more in line with the rest of the region. I mean what really is the big deal between 4" and 6"?

[CAPE]

Just now, mattie g said:

On thing that stood out to me with the 00z Euro is that the northern edge of the QPF field has really been eaten away the last couple runs, with northern MD now running from 0.3-0.5" total for the duration, with similar decreases down to just about a line from Alexandra/Warrenton. The area south of that has remained pretty steady, so to me it seems the goalposts are beginning to narrow on keeping the most moisture in central VA. We have time, but I'm not sure we'll see any huge adjustments, though even just a 20-mile shift in that northern edge will make a huge difference for a lot of folks.

The confluence/HP to the north is a tad problematic on recent runs, especially as the wave moves further east. Drier air is eating away at the precip  just to the NE. Need that to be an issue up in eastern PA and NJ, not here.

[LP08]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You got the pretty snowfall maps.  Just curious. 

 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I've never been one to care about getting the highest totals for any storm, not my style....I just want to be invited to the party to hold up a wall and look at everyone else having fun. Maybe this is the one that gets DC and the Southern burbs more in line with the rest of the region. I mean what really is the big deal between 4" and 6"?

Oh, I’m with you on that. I’m def not a size king. I could care less about getting the most, just put me in the game. I don’t care if FDK gets 18” and i get like 12. Like i said. I just wanna be at the party. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The confluence/HP to the north is a tad problematic on recent runs, especially as the wave moves further east. Drier air is eating away at the precip  just to the NE. Need that to be an issue up in eastern PA and NJ, not here.

This is rather pathetic .

This is looking like a non event here 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

I’ve only taken a quick look this morning, but seems the euro paints max precip amounts just a bit south of where the gfs+GGEM/RGEM do (just south of DC vs near BWI) for wave 1. Wave 2 looks more similar across guidance. Shift the euro north by like 20-30mi for wave 1 and you’d see pretty good consensus.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve only taken a quick look this morning, but seems the euro paints max precip amounts just a bit south of where the gfs+GGEM/RGEM do (just south of DC vs near BWI) for wave 1. Wave 2 looks more similar across guidance. Shift the euro north by like 20-30mi for wave 1 and you’d see pretty good consensus.

This is looking like a Jan 2019 repeat

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

This is rather pathetic .

This is looking like a non event here 

 

 

I think Mount Holly nailed it as usual. The initial wave is  weak/weakening as it moves east. They are thinking 1-3 here. The second wave is a bit more juiced, but the trends are further south with that. Need a couple ticks north in the next few model cycles.

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

 

That map is just silly for my area. Not seeing me getting nearly 10” of snow on about 0.6 precip

[CAPE]

I will gladly risk getting some sleet, vs all snow and pathetically light accumulations.

[PCT_ATC]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I think Mount Holly nailed it as usual. The initial wave is  weak/weakening as it moves east. They are thinking 1-3 here. The second wave is a bit more juiced, but the trends are further south with that. Need a couple ticks north in the next few model cycles.

no we dont.. stop stealing my digital snow!  its fine right where it lays!  but I agree the real deal is going to be that second wave.

[CAPE]

Just now, PCT_ATC said:

no we dont.. stop stealing my digital snow!  its fine right where it lays!  but I agree the real deal is going to be that second wave.

Its not a problem out where you are. The further east you go, the more influence from that dry tongue to the NE.

[mattie g]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The confluence/HP to the north is a tad problematic on recent runs, especially as the wave moves further east. Drier air is eating away at the precip  just to the NE. Need that to be an issue up in eastern PA and NJ, not here.

Totally agree. If that confluence relaxes just a tad, then we'll see that QPF field expand north. As it is, it's getting squeezed from the north, but the southern edge isn't budging.

I'd imagine we'll see some better-than-normal ratios on the northern edge of the best precip - lots of fluff.

[dallen7908]

The following is from the Capital Weather Gang's 5:31 AM bulletin.  Any idea as to why their level of confidence is "low"?  Is it simply the fact that the precipitation isn't expected to arrive until very early Thursday? Is it concerns about the precipitation type? Suppression? the UHI? To my untrained eye it seems like this system is more straightforward than most.  It is mostly overrunning and doesn't rely on an on-time phase, dynamic cooling, or a well positioned CCB.  I mean if they use "low" here what adjectives are left for most storms. 

Thursday should start with more snow, but some wintry mix remains possible, especially south of the District. We may see a precipitation break for a few hours in the afternoon as highs hold only in the 30s. Thursday night should see precipitation pick back up again. It’s most likely to be in the form of snow as temperatures fall into the 20s, but mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out. Confidence: Low

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I agree for the most part.  I mean obviously for my back yard south isn’t bad. But i really believe this is where we want ii for what is probably The inevitable tick north.  But of course now that we want a slight tick north we won’t get it.  

I wouldn’t assume a north trend. This is more similar to some of the waves over the years that didn’t. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think Mount Holly nailed it as usual. The initial wave is  weak/weakening as it moves east, They are thinking 1-3 here. The second wave is a bit more juiced, but the trends are further south with that. Need a couple ticks north in the next few model cycles.

Very difficult to get snow North of Dover this year . Two winter storm warnings and about 4 inches combined. Either WAA dies before it reaches us, or storm development is off to the North or we are not in an area for the best dynamics. Your area has done better. Really thought the baroclinic boundary would deliver.  Will it ever, I am not sure. Even next week looks questionable. The 240 hour look does not favor the same areas that have been screwed over and over.  

[H2O]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve only taken a quick look this morning, but seems the euro paints max precip amounts just a bit south of where the gfs+GGEM/RGEM do (just south of DC vs near BWI) for wave 1. Wave 2 looks more similar across guidance. Shift the euro north by like 20-30mi for wave 1 and you’d see pretty good consensus.

I don't think northern tier people need to sweat things as much.  What we see time and again isn't so much a sudden precip shift but the benefit of cold air, confluence and ortho lift.  The northern crew gets help from the precip that does get up that way and is squeezed out due to HP on the north side and juice wrung out thanks to elevation.  Why else does the deathband set up where it does 9/10 times?

Ratios are better as well so you all do more with less.  DC needs 1" qpf to get 6" snow and y'all roll with .4" qpf and get 8" cause you get the cold air.

[blueberryfaygo]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wouldn’t assume a north trend. This is more similar to some of the waves over the years that didn’t. 

yeah.. I feel like when you have a coastal developing and LP moving in an Northeastern trajectory, slight variations in strength and upper level steering can lead to a north trend.. but in this case we have a moderate overrunning event with a boundary layer.  HP to our north is the dominant feature.. so it doesnt set the stage for the typical north trend right before game time.  

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

I don't think northern tier people need to sweat things as much.  What we see time and again isn't so much a sudden precip shift but the benefit of cold air, confluence and ortho lift.  The northern crew gets help from the precip that does get up that way and is squeezed out due to HP on the north side and juice wrung out thanks to elevation.  Why else does the deathband set up where it does 9/10 times?

Ratios are better as well so you all do more with less.  DC needs 1" qpf to get 6" snow and y'all roll with .4" qpf and get 8" cause you get the cold air.

Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Very difficult to get snow North of Dover this year . Two winter storm warnings and about 4 inches combined. Either WAA dies before it reaches us, or storm development is off to the North or we are not in an area for the best dynamics. Your area has done better. Really thought the baroclinic boundary would deliver.  Will it ever, I am not sure. Even next week looks questionable. The 240 hour look does not favor the same areas that have been screwed over and over.  

It looks active going forward so there will be opportunities, and thats all you can ask for really. Your area has had more bad luck so far than places around you.

[The Ole Bucket]

The upside on this could be... really substantial for basically the whole forum. I know it never pans out but here's the 1 in 10 chance map..

 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here. 

You still have a S wind component at the onset.  where that hits the confluence it will maximize precip.  Just watch.  Your cold temps help.  Seriously.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here. 

The Chill storm was a cutter into Ky. Not the same at all IMO.

[aldie 22]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here. 

I suspect you may still end up around 6" total.

[catoctin wx]

8 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

The upside on this could be... really substantial for basically the whole forum. I know it never pans out but here's the 1 in 10 chance map..

 

I appreciate the optimism but probabilities work both ways

[The Ole Bucket]

1 minute ago, catoctin wx said:

I appreciate the optimism but probabilities work both ways

Look if I can just reach the low end of the "expected snowfall" range I will be content. But hope endures.

Also, really my main point here is that Sterling's thoughts on upside potential across many parts of the forum went from like 5-7" to 12-14" in a day. That's not bad...

[blizzardmeiser]

38 minutes ago, frd said:

Very difficult to get snow North of Dover this year . Two winter storm warnings and about 4 inches combined. Either WAA dies before it reaches us, or storm development is off to the North or we are not in an area for the best dynamics. Your area has done better. Really thought the baroclinic boundary would deliver.  Will it ever, I am not sure. Even next week looks questionable. The 240 hour look does not favor the same areas that have been screwed over and over.  

You’ve been incredibly unlucky. The first two storms Newark to Hockessin to Wilmington did much better than you. This last one south of you did better. 

[clskinsfan]

12z HRRR is beautiful for the DC area with the first wave. Two distinct camps right now. The Euro and CMC favor central VA. The American models favor DC and west for the highest qpf. Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement. But sign me up for what the HRRR is selling. 

[deer]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty crazy we are 24 hours out and have this much disagreement.

At what point does this stop being that crazy? It's happened with every storm this winter