clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just a touch more juiced up than the Euro. An inch plus for almost everyone. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Surprised nobody mentioned temps were in the low 20s around dc during the mix period. Sand blasting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: DC would double their seasonal total. DC has been on the losing end of modeled gradients like that all winter, so highly doubt many in the city would be comfortable with a GFS-like solution, if it holds. Thankfully, Euro and Nam look farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Surprised nobody mentioned temps were in the low 20s around dc during the mix period. Sand blasting. Mentioned over on banter that the ice storm portion of this is no joke. Very few in our forum dealing with plain rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Mentioned over on banter that the ice storm portion of this is no joke. Very few in our forum dealing with plain rain. Check out this sounding. That's either sleet or graupel? or something weird. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Not gonna lie, wish we could shift that like 50 miles South, but whatever. GFS seems to be the most norther with the heaviest stuff, Euro bullseye and RGEM southFirst time euro and gfs seem to be close to agreeing this year on our winter storm. People forget that even thought the storm begins Wednesday....Friday is still in mid range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 CMC looks solid for DC going off of this site. Kind of similar to the RGEM out this way. But a little better with the second wave. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Here's a better one. Might strip the paint off a car if it's sleet 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Geesh....CMC is very nice for wave 1. DC w .6 by 12z thur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Here’s LWX’s current thoughts through 7p Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'm only ou to 54 on the CMC, but looks good, especially 2nd wave 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 DC Jack through 78 on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Here’s LWX’s current thoughts through 7p Thursday. Asking because I don't recall---do they have an ice product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 CMC is onboard with the euro progression of the second wave. Really good run for a lot of the forum. Two waves are closer together and the second is much stronger. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Cmc is light with wave 2 qpf even though it's actually the "stronger" of the 2 waves. I liked the run as much as any of the good ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Asking because I don't recall---do they have an ice product? They do but its basically 0.0” for everyone but their forecast runs through 2/11 at 7p. See https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter under Ice Accumulation Forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Cmc is light with wave 2 qpf even though it's actually the "stronger" of the 2 waves. I liked the run as much as any of the good ones. This is starting to smell like a 6-10 event region wide 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is light with wave 2 qpf even though it's actually the "stronger" of the 2 waves. I liked the run as much as any of the good ones. This is starting to smell like a 6-10 event region wide Agree. If everything lines up for a good hit with the 12z runs tomorrow I'd say it's a lock. Uncomplicated right? I want to maximize the first slug. I have some vague memories of a modeled 1-2 shot and the first one fizzled and the second didnt work as well as thought. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 UKMET coming in now. We're 3 for 3 so far tonight on globals with the GFS, CMC and ICON all putting down half an inch QPF for most of the subforum with enough cold for good ratios of snow. Can we go 4 for 4, and even 5 for 5 with the Euro tonight? Perhaps of more interest at this stage, how do the mesos look tomorrow? Either way hard not to feel good where we are right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 What is start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 UKMET pretty similar to 12z honestly, 4-6 around the cities (higher end of that by DC), 6-8 in the mountains NW of DC, 2-4 outside of those areas. Seems like a pretty reasonable, less weenie version of what the other models showed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Agreed. UK is pretty similar to the gfs on the areas it hits. Just less qpf overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GEFS is a nice improvement for most 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: GEFS is a nice improvement for most QPF really gets shorn by the mountains. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 EURO looks essentially the same when it comes to positioning (maybe slightly more south) as 18z but wetter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO looks essentially the same when it comes to positioning (maybe slightly more south) as 18z but wetter. Seems wetter DC south, bit dryer to the north. Overall pretty similar but the gradient between south/north seems a bit stronger in the former's favor. Still no big north adjustments as we close in from the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 One thing I love about this next system is that for a lot of places, there's still snowpack (well, in my case, it's now basically hardened ice-pack lol) from the last marathon storm. I might go 2+ weeks with snow on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Seems wetter DC south, bit dryer to the north. Overall pretty similar but the gradient between south/north seems a bit stronger in the former's favor. Still no big north adjustments as we close in from the euro.Yeah, this ended up being a banner run for DC-south. Very much ended up as psu being fringed. Kuchera clown maps have CHO at 16”, DC at 14”, Balt at 8”, and PSU-Ville at 5. My bias is kicking in, but I darn sure hope that’s the outcome. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 If we get that last second tick north that we've seen every storm now, DC and Baltimore will be in the best stuff. Hopefully we can get it one more time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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