psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: EPS follows the op. Weaker wave 1 and further north wave two. Slight decrease overall because the losses from wave 1 slightly offset the gains from wave 2. Wave 2 is the potentially more dynamic and fun but wave 1 was closer. Whatever. There isn’t much separation between the two anymore either. There is really no lull anymore. Just a long fetch it weak WAA precip ahead of the main wave (2nd) now. The first wave isn’t even a distinct entity anymore imo. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Slight decrease overall because the losses from wave 1 slightly offset the gains from wave 2. Wave 2 is the potentially more dynamic and fun but wave 1 was closer. Whatever. There isn’t much separation between the two anymore either. There is really no lull anymore. Just a long fetch it weak WAA precip ahead of the main wave (2nd) now. The first wave isn’t even a distinct entity anymore imo. Maybe it’s because of recent bias, but this seems like the easiest setup for us to have a solid clean score. Cold air in place, precip with gulf origins. We don’t need a messy transfer or TPV lobe. I think we do well with this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Slight decrease overall because the losses from wave 1 slightly offset the gains from wave 2. Wave 2 is the potentially more dynamic and fun but wave 1 was closer. Whatever. There isn’t much separation between the two anymore either. There is really no lull anymore. Just a long fetch it weak WAA precip ahead of the main wave (2nd) now. The first wave isn’t even a distinct entity anymore imo. First wave is interesting it's an almost indiscernible impulse ejecting out of the desert sw and zipping along with the jet across the country waaay out in front of the digging shortwave. Normally things like that don't even cause precip here but the lucky connection with the gulf and bouncing up againt cold air makes it an event anyway. Sometimes it just wants to snow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: First wave is interesting it's an almost indiscernible impulse ejecting out of the desert sw and zipping along with the jet across the country waaay out in front of the digging shortwave. Normally things like that don't even cause precip here but the lucky connection with the gulf and bouncing up againt cold air makes it an event anyway. Sometimes it just wants to snow. Most favorite quote from you in the 2013 - 2014 epic year was that if the atmosphere farted, we got snow! I still laugh at that!! Some similarities, in a way, to what we are seeing in this stretch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The progressive Navgem fwiw is more amped for Thurs/fri then other guidance. I love how people always point out that the Navgem is progressive everytime its mentioned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 0z HRRR looks pretty paltry with the first wave. But way out there for that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The progressive Navgem fwiw is more amped for Thurs/fri then other guidance. I love how people always point out that the Navgem is progressive everytime its mentioned This forum would be better off if someone spilled a gallon of seawater on the navgem's motherboard 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM much colder this run. 850 line down to the VA/NC border at 12z Wednesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM much colder this run. 850 line down to the VA/NC border at 12z Wednesday. Also more juiced with the wave to the west. Rare combo 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Nice hit from 51-54 NOVA/DC. Virtually nothing south of that so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Nice hit from 51-54 NOVA/DC. Virtually nothing south of that so far though. Seems everything shifted north. Mix line is on the dooratep here in Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 So much for a dry first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hagerstown crushed at 60. My area kind of gets screwed with light rates so far this run. 69-72 DC south in the good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Seems everything shifted north. Mix line is on the dooratep here in Loudoun It’s a nice run so far if you are in DC or anywhere north. More amplified so more precip and from DC north is cold enough. It’s not like 12z that blasted the 850s way north. But south of DC has mixing issues so not as good there. Anyone south of DC needs to root for a weaker wave to have a shot. More amplified probably pushed the boundary north of them. But they could still score Friday depending what happens with the trailing energy. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hagerstown crushed at 60. My area kind of gets screwed with light rates so far this run. Temps in the low 30's. Glad it's falling at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I like this NAM run. R/S line down in Salisbury the whole time 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Such a narrow band of snow. Sheesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wave 2 doesn’t seem to want to gain any latitude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Very narrow swatch of max accumulating snow. Nothing like the expanse of the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 FWIW, the 3km is further north than the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Much wetter run through 72 What happened to Baltimore here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 WB 12K NAM at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I did want to add something serious. Every single time models have tossed around the idea of a long drawn out event with even steven rates/distribution etc over 48 hours or more... It NEVER ends up working out like that. One of these 2 waves will be dominant and the other may be a letdown. Just going off memory. Everyone knows what I'm rooting for and it still includes a foot of ice. ETA: I suppose one difference here is SLP is weak sauce. Not the same as a 1-2 punch where there's a "wake" left behind or the exiting system does weird things over the Atl and screws up the approach of the second. This whole thing is pretty unusual. I can't really think of any event similar in the last 15 years. May be "ok" to expect anomalous results. Good times. I’ve been thinking the same the whole time. I know it’s been brought up a thousand times but January 2011 is a good analog for that sort of dominance. A weaker wave passed and set up the bowling ball the following night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Wave 2 doesn’t seem to want to gain any latitude Yeah. Its a pretty disappointing screw job for my area in all honesty. Light rates with the first half and a whiff south with the second. It is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Congrats @Ji east of the mountains! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 NAM improved with wave 1. Not sure it’s in useful range for wave 2 yet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I wouldn’t worry too much about the blotchy nature of the nam precip depiction at this range. Should smooth out a bit as we near game time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. Its a pretty disappointing screw job for my area in all honesty. Light rates with the first half and a whiff south with the second. It is what it is. I don’t think this will resemble the final outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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