February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

[aldie 22]

I'm not giving up yet

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

What he means is...why are you out running errands during school hours? He hates teachers and public schools...

Oh, Wednesday is a weird schedule for my school .  Students only have 2 classes 10-11 and 1-2.  So it’s my lunch right now. 

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Oh, Wednesday is a weird schedule for my school .  Students only have 2 classes 10-11 and 1-2.  So it’s my lunch right now. 

I get it. I am not Yeoman. My wife is a teacher. Just explaining the deep snark. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

 He hates 

fixed 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I get it. I am not Yeoman. My wife is a teacher. Just explaining the deep snark. 

I’ll take any more to banter but working from home (virtual teaching) and being able to run errands during the day or start cooking dinner or laundry has been a pretty nice quality of life upgrade.  The actual teaching element sucks so bad though, especially for my subject which relies heavily on labs (physics).  Can’t wait to go back. 

[RockabilyJunior]

I think the problem with our area is that there is a very heavy tail of probabilities with snowfall accumulations, so that the expected accumulation is way greater than the most likely accumulation. Maybe models and forecasters are trying to hedge their bets so that on average they aren't too wrong? But most snowfalls are either boom or bust here, often just due to temps.

For instance, in February in Baltimore it has snowed (> 0.1 inches) on average on 2.8 days in the month in the last 30 years. Of these on average 1.3 days had 0.1-1 inches,  0.6 days had 1-3 inches, 0.5 days had 3-5 inches, 0.3 days had 5-10 inches, and 0.1 days had 10+ inches (I'll call this category 12 inches)

46% chance 0.1 - 1 inch (0.6)

22% chance 1-3 inches (2)

18% chance 3-5 inches (4)

11% chance 5-10 inches (7.5)

3% chance 10+ inches (12)

___________

Expected Snowfall --> 2.7 inches

Most Likely Snowfall --> 0.6 inches

So this is an honest question, which number actually would get used in a forecast? And for any given event, this distribution might have an even heavier tail and the expected snowfall and most likely snowfall would diverge even more. Is there a point where forecasters opt for one number over the other, or are these also blended? I feel like a forecast that just said 2.7 inches for every snowfall in February (aka climo) would have verified more accurately than most forecasts we've seen this winter. How wrong would our forecasts be if we should just use models to give us an idea if it's even possible for it to snow and then just predict amounts with climo afterwards?

[WxUSAF]

Noon temps of 39 at BWI and 41 at DCA. Not bad and that’s probably the high with overcast skies now.

[mappy]

32 in Parkton 

[bigsnowdog]

40 in Sterling

[NovaWahoo]

40.5/27.7

[Herb@MAWS]

37 sunny in Columbia. High clouds not hiding sun here. 

[clskinsfan]

The UK is better for the DC area. A little colder at least. 

[ge0]

38 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

For the first time this year I’m actually pretty bummed. This was an epic rug pull. I mean just a few hours out...man this one hurts. 

have we ever busted high? I can't remember the last time. 2009 maybe?

[Deck Pic]

Buckle up I-81

[chris21]

2 minutes ago, ge0 said:

have we ever busted high? I can't remember the last time. 2009 maybe?

We have busted high many a time. Most recently Jan 2019 was a nice positive bust.

[bigsnowdog]

Is there still time for the second wave to shift north. -Big snow dog

[chris21]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The UK is better for the DC area. A little colder at least. 

Yeah... the trends def are not good but we have a major issue with calling  a storm before it even starts. The last three day snowfall was  an excellent example... everyone was whining and bitching for days but we still managed 5.5 beautiful inches in nw and I enjoyed it thoroughly. Some of our members would should check out Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, chris21 said:

We have busted high many a time. Most recently Jan 2019 was a nice positive bust.

You know people usually only remeber the negative busts. But there have been a decent amount of + busts (I'd say 40/60 ratio of boom/bust). When you add in boom/as forecasted/bust its probably 20/50/30 as a split. 

[Deck Pic]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Buckle up I-81

FWIW - this is a snow sounding at DCA

[Baltimorewx]

2 minutes ago, bigsnowdog said:

Is there still time for the second wave to shift north. -Big snow dog

in my opinion no..it hasnt only trended south, its also a weak piece of crap generally now..There just no spacing for it to really develop anymore between this wave and then saturday

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Buckle up I-81

 

RAP I'm assuming?

At the very least it seems like some areas in our subform will get a shot at substantial precip on both wave 1 and wave 2. Was always thread the needle to get those areas to overlap, but at least most areas are in the game for something, even if minimal. 

[clskinsfan]

12 GFS Cobb data for first wave:

DCA:

210211/0100Z  13  11006KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   75|  0| 25
210211/0200Z  14  12005KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03   71|  0| 29
210211/0300Z  15  12007KT  33.3F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   49| 23| 28
210211/0400Z  16  12004KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06   45|  0| 55
210211/0500Z  17  14005KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10   37|  0| 63
210211/0600Z  18  15007KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0700Z  19  16006KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|100
210211/0800Z  20  16005KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16    0|  0|100
210211/0900Z  21  16003KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|  0|100
210211/1000Z  22  VRB02KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21    0|  0|100
210211/1100Z  23  VRB00KT  34.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21    0|  0|100

BWI:

210211/0100Z  13  09005KT  31.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
210211/0200Z  14  08006KT  31.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    6:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
210211/0300Z  15  09007KT  30.8F  SNOW   12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032    9:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
210211/0400Z  16  09007KT  31.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    8:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
210211/0500Z  17  11007KT  31.7F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    7:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
210211/0600Z  18  12008KT  31.9F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    7:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0700Z  19  11007KT  32.1F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.030    6:1|  1.4|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.22   85| 15|  0
210211/0800Z  20  12005KT  31.9F SNZRPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.01|| 0.029    6:1|  1.4|| 0.04|| 0.01|| 0.25   22| 30| 48
210211/0900Z  21  11003KT  32.1F  SNOW   12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    7:1|  1.7|| 0.04|| 0.01|| 0.28  100|  0|  0
210211/1000Z  22  08004KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    7:1|  1.7|| 0.04|| 0.01|| 0.32    0|  0|100
210211/1100Z  23  03003KT  32.1F SNZRPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.013    7:1|  1.7|| 0.06|| 0.01|| 0.34   46| 25| 29
210211/1200Z  24  03005KT  30.6F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.006    7:1|  1.7|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.34   27| 73|  0

IAD:

210210/2300Z  11  13004KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   59|  0| 41
210211/0000Z  12  15006KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05   57|  0| 43
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0100Z  13  13006KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08   74|  0| 26
210211/0200Z  14  12007KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09   74|  0| 26
210211/0300Z  15  13008KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12   73|  0| 27
210211/0400Z  16  14007KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18   81|  0| 19
210211/0500Z  17  15007KT  33.5F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20   25| 58| 17
210211/0600Z  18  16007KT  33.9F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23    2| 50| 48
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210211/0700Z  19  16006KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26    0|  0|100
210211/0800Z  20  16006KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29    0|  0|100
210211/0900Z  21  19004KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31    0|  0|100
210211/1000Z  22  VRB02KT  34.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31    0|  0|  0
210211/1100Z  23  VRB02KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32    0|  0|100

[Deck Pic]

Just now, Cobalt said:

RAP I'm assuming?

At the very least it seems like some areas in our subform will get a shot at substantial precip on both wave 1 and wave 2. Was always thread the needle to get those areas to overlap, but at least most areas are in the game for something, even if minimal. 

HRRR

[MDphotog]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Interesting, thanks. But given that’s downwind of us, would need to see if that impacts these short range forecasts over North America.

I wonder how big of an impact, in regards to accuracy, the issue of the lack of data from commercial aircraft (especially over the oceans) is causing.  There still isn't anywhere near the same number flying daily as pre-covid.

[flsch22]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Noon temps of 39 at BWI and 41 at DCA. Not bad and that’s probably the high with overcast skies now.

DCA will spike a 45 or 47 

[RockabilyJunior]

13 minutes ago, ge0 said:

have we ever busted high? I can't remember the last time. 2009 maybe?

Also February 2015. Snow was supposed to change over to sleet/rain, but it never really did. We got 10 inches in Baltimore instead of 3 or 4 forecast before hitting a dry slot with just some freezing drizzle after the changeover finally did happen.  

[osfan24]

Could wave 1 going farther north mean wave 2 comes north and is a hit for some?

[ErinInTheSky]

OOF on the NAM. Completely misses us in MD from wave 2.

[Cobalt]

Just now, RockabilyJunior said:

Also February 2015. Snow was supposed to change over to sleet/rain, but it never really did. We got 10 inches in Baltimore instead of 3 or 4 forecast before hitting a dry slot with just some freezing drizzle after the changeover finally did happen.  

Yes, Feb 20-21 2015. One of my favorite storms as a young weenie. That was near the peak of our arctic blast, and so when precip arrived, temps were still in the mid teens for most across the area. Took a substantial amount of precip until it finally changed over, with 6"+ from IAD west, as well as a glacier on top of it. Pretty sure temps rocketed the day after, but the snowpack was encased pretty well. In fact some areas maintained that snowpack from then until after the March 5-6 snowstorm (another personal favorite). 

[ErinInTheSky]

50 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I'm numb to it now.  I never bought into this one knowing it would somehow fail.  I'm convinced we finish a second straight winter without a WSW level snow.  Trip to Dallas for their cold smoke snowstorm Monday with temps in the teen and 20s?  LOL

Me too haha. After the first two storms, I 100% expected this.