jayyy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Ji said: they should use the HRDPS and call it a winter HRDPS, euro and a few other models show that secondary QPF jack from Baltimore metro on east with QPF. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It’s surprising this trended to another white rain/mix event with temps 33-36 in DC. I guess that’s been the seasonal trend though, there is never any deep cold preceding a storm. We haven’t had a storm with temps in the 20s the night before in quite some time. Something that I've learned/but don't practice enough is that the NAM/3k are very good are finding warm noses throughout the column. The almost always end up slightly further north than even what they show. RGEM now shows the warm nose at 12z for us in DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It’s surprising this trended to another white rain/mix event with temps 33-36 in DC. I guess that’s been the seasonal trend though, there is never any deep cold preceding a storm. We haven’t had a storm with temps in the 20s the night before in quite some time. It’s frustrating... but hopefully we can catch a break this time... it’s very close and I’ll pretty much take sleet or snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 41 minutes ago, wtkidz said: Okay I don’t post much . is it correct I don’t know or care. I am just tracking the storm. DC folks when the storm misses south: It will trend north Also DC folks: This solution will 100% trend north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 RGEM looks like the NAM with (presumably) a 800mb warm layer poking up to around a Laurel-Rockville line early tomorrow morning. Kind of amazing how crappy our air masses have been this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: HRDPS, euro and a few other models show that secondary QPF jack from Baltimore metro on east with QPF. Interesting. I think because there’s a weak precipitation shadow just east of the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, chris21 said: It’s frustrating... but hopefully we can catch a break this time... it’s very close and I’ll pretty much take sleet or snow at this point. Yeah I’ll take whatever, I think we’ll just have to get used to this unfortunately on the coastal plain as our climate rapidly warms. Was supposed to have a high of 39 today, just went for a run in rock creek and it’s beautiful out lol. Nice and warm in the sun temp up to 38 already, running in a t-shirt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah I’ll take whatever, I think we’ll just have to get used to this unfortunately on the coastal plain as our climate rapidly warms. Was supposed to have a high of 39 today, just went for a run in rock creek and it’s beautiful out lol. Nice and warm in the sun temp up to 38 already, running in a t-shirt. Lack of cold at any point is ridiculous. Last year, fine everyone east of the Mississippi was warm. This really is just us. We are busting high on forecasted highs and lows daily. At least maybe the rain/white rain tonight and tomorrow will get all the accumulated salt of the streets just in case we get a bit of a surprise for wave 2. That’s the glass half full thought for the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, ovechkin said: Lack of cold at any point is ridiculous. Last year, fine everyone east of the Mississippi was warm. This really is just us. We are busting high on forecasted highs and lows daily. At least maybe the rain/white rain tonight and tomorrow will get all the accumulated salt of the streets just in case we get a bit of a surprise for wave 2. That’s the glass half full thought for the day. Even the 12k NAM is already busting low with temps. NAM says I should be at 35 and DCA should be at 37. I'm at 38/39 and it's already around or above 40 at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I am hugging the RAP. It looks GFS like with wave 1. Mostly cloudy 32/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS caved to the NAM. 850's blast north. Congrats PSU. This hobby sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS caved to the NAM. 850's blast north. Congrats PSU. This hobby sucks. Sorry I was trying to will this one south. Maybe if I set up my high velocity fan from my classroom and face it south... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Even the mix is right to baltimore on GFS...verbatim still good enough but no wiggle if it decides to verify 15-20 miles N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: GFS caved to the NAM. 850's blast north. Congrats PSU. This hobby sucks. It’s not even just 850s the surface is torched too for a lot of our subforum. Looking like plain rain to me around DC. And this is from another model that is already busting 2-3 degrees low on current temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Talk in NWS discussion of upping totals for the northern teir though...no shocker based on 12z data so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS is definitely WSW criteria for areas north of 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Talk in NWS discussion of upping totals for the northern teir though...no shocker based on 12z data so far lol who could have guessed the M/D line would get the most snow!?! 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The GFS gives NOVA and DC some pity flakes on Friday. What an incredible flooded dumpster fire this turned into. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I’ll just go with the para 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Cue the inevitable bashing of the models since they weren't verbatim and trends went the wrong way for this sub ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 0.25 total precip in DC through 12z Friday. and even worse the further south you go. GFS has been steadfast on central VA precip hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Wow. And to top it off—this confidence building boiler plate quote from LWX next week. A slight winter threat exists for Saturday and Tuesday. If these threats materialize, it may cause travel disruptions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Anyone think that the trailing wave for saturday is maybe preventing wave 2 from being able to really develop? I mean its just a weak precip shield now..spacing maybe an issue I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 38 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It’s surprising this trended to another white rain/mix event with temps 33-36 in DC. I guess that’s been the seasonal trend though, there is never any deep cold preceding a storm. We haven’t had a storm with temps in the 20s the night before in quite some time. Over the last several years DC has a hard time just getting to 32 in general Not many hours below if you add up all the hours below 32 in a given winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Warm Nose said: Cue the inevitable bashing of the models since they weren't verbatim and trends went the wrong way for this sub ... "Verbatim" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. They might as well have been sampling a different country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 38/26 at 10:45 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll just go with the para Yeah, para notably colder tonight for the region. And wet! I’ll take it. Para looks a lot like @high risks WRF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS gives NOVA and DC some pity flakes on Friday. What an incredible flooded dumpster fire this turned into. I love that gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Gfs looks good for the Richmond to Charlottesville 10” jackpot 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Thing I like about this winter are these powerful 1012 lows and the massive precip totals they bring in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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