wawarriors4 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is so very interesting That’s the best troll job for Stafford County I have seen yet, and seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 We can will more snow out of this mofo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO first wave, second wave misses. Very nice, temps are ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 First wave still moving north it seems...12z could be interesting or heartbreaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: First wave still moving north it seems...12z could be interesting or heartbreaking I was thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 24 hours on the euro total precip. To state the obvious, tonight has turned into the main event and sadly for central va, it’s going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: First wave still moving north it seems...12z could be interesting or heartbreaking There is going to be a dead zone that misses/mostly misses both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: There is going to be a dead zone that misses/mostly misses both waves. NAM and Euro sure show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: There is going to be a dead zone that misses/mostly misses both waves. Euro total cave to the GFS lol. That said, I like the model consensus for wave 1 for MBY way more than yesterday. Surprised wave 2 has crapped out, but given how fast wave 1 rejuvenated, maybe it’s not dead yet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: NAM and Euro sure show it GFS kinda has it here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: NAM and Euro sure show it Feel like it's going to be where I am near Reston because the first wave will be mix and slop then the second will miss to my south. I really hope that this does not happen but it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Also I mean we got the northward shift and it looks to destroy my snowfall totals but for the wave we need one its not, always fun to track storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is going to be a dead zone that misses/mostly misses both waves. Yeah, have been fearing that all along. That dead zone sets up pretty much over mby. Frustrating at time, but we will see how it works out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said: Somebody from Fredericksburg to PSU land will do well. But at this point i think you could throw a dart in that range and have as good a chance as the models. I know where I’m aiming my dart. I'm not feeling as good about this morning. we could seriously be in the screw zone...which would mean we are in the usual zone. so actually we are where we should be. Nevermind I feel a lot better about it now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Yeah, have been fearing that all along. That dead zone sets up pretty much over mby. Frustrating at time, but we will see how it works out. Hence why sterling has this....The Stafford County/Fredericksburg anti snow dome. . I 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 hours ago, WVsnowlover said: Looks like LWX will be playing catch up with this one. 1-3" seems laughably low for out this way (Charles Town). Not sure any guidance at any point has supported that call. I’m going with 2-4” for most north of US rt 50. Extend that west thru Virginia. I mean splitting hairs I guess but most places should see at least 2” from this but probably not more then 4 or 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, wxtrix said: LWX doesn’t use clown maps as a forecast. and 1-3” seems reasonable to me. they should use the HRDPS and call it a winter 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: I’m going with 2-4” for most north of US rt 50. Extend that west thru Virginia. I mean splitting hairs I guess but most places should see at least 2” from this but probably not more then 4 or 5 Only fly in the ointment I see is the stupid boundary level temps on the NAM. NAM seems to be a bit of a warm outlier but it also seems like you rarely bust going with the warmest guidance around DC metro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 47 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is going to be a dead zone that misses/mostly misses both waves. It's gonna be Calvert and Charles lol The cities and north and west have WWA's, for part 1, and St. Mary's has a WSWatch for part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: they should use the HRDPS and call it a winter copy, paste, snow, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 32 minutes ago, wxtrix said: LWX doesn’t use clown maps as a forecast. and 1-3” seems reasonable to me. You call qpf maps clown maps? I assume you haven't seen the 6z suite of runs yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 36 minutes ago, wtkidz said: Hence why sterling has this....The Stafford County/Fredericksburg anti snow dome. . I That will likely change, its just due to uncertainty. Might expand the WSW for wave 2 further north, and/or put an advisory in effect later today for wave 1/wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: It's gonna be Calvert and Charles lol The cities and north and west have WWA's, for part 1, and St. Mary's has a WSWatch for part 2. What is this horseshite? I'm taking solace in that the models have been pretty crappy so surely the precip will shift 20mi one way or the other and fill in this stupid hole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I’m thinking the first wave is gonna produce above expectations. As for the second, who really knows at this point. Maybe it undergoes the normal last 24 north shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m thinking the first wave is gonna produce above expectations. As for the second, who really knows at this point. Maybe it undergoes the normal last 24 north shift I do as well. 4"-6" should be very doable for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Only fly in the ointment I see is the stupid boundary level temps on the NAM. NAM seems to be a bit of a warm outlier but it also seems like you rarely bust going with the warmest guidance around DC metro. Yeah I mean I think its an issue for around DC and rt 50 to Annapolis but I think north of there should be ok once the steady stuff comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, IronTy said: What is this horseshite? I'm taking solace in that the models have been pretty crappy so surely the precip will shift 20mi one way or the other and fill in this stupid hole. Youre too warm for wave 1...and wave 2 is kinda looking crappy right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Only fly in the ointment I see is the stupid boundary level temps on the NAM. NAM seems to be a bit of a warm outlier but it also seems like you rarely bust going with the warmest guidance around DC metro. The NAM shows the temp dropping below freezing early tomorrow morning. But yeah... that’s almost always a concern in the city unfortunately, even more so downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I'm not feeling as good about this morning. we could seriously be in the screw zone...which would mean we are in the usual zone. so actually we are where we should be. Nevermind I feel a lot better about it now. Way to talk yourself into a free ticket to the panic Room! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like 3-4" for most of us north of DC on HRRR...mostly from 10PM-8AM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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