baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Huge bump in QPF for the first wave so far, but also lots of mixing/sleet at DC latitudes and rain further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 am Th. 0Z v 18Z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM seems way too amped with that wave, I see no way a warm nose makes it to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I suppose this could be overcome with rates. It’s not a terribly large warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Hopefully this isn’t the case of the NAM having that one run that’s just too juiced close in. But that’s at least encouraging for Baltimore. Stays all snow up here at least 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 am first wave pulling out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Hopefully this isn’t the case of the NAM having that one run that’s just too juiced close in. But that’s at least encouraging for Baltimore. Stays all snow up here at least Yeah important to remember that the NAM was holding on to a better storm for us just this past weekend for longer than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM. We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3km probably isn't gonna be as crazy as the 12km but still a marked improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 10 am first wave pulling out. That seems fairly significant to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM. We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. Yeah, if I had to choose I’d take the .25 QPF on the euro at 30 degrees over the 0.8 on the NAM of sleet/white rain for round 1. At 42 wave 2 is south, maybe it can make up some ground though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM. We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. Yeah, it's been really persistent about that for awhile now. I hope that's not necessarily correlated with the now notably higher QPF amounts (for first wave)...i.e., we can only get higher precip if we get the mix around this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Such model chaos. Euro 1st wave weak and dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: That seems fairly significant to me Same. Almost an inch of qpf. Before it was like, what, .4 something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Slightly better heights with less suppression over the NE. Wave 2 looks like it will be a little bit north to my eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Wave 2 bringing the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Unfortunately right in the NAM wheelhouse. IIRC it was also the first model to introduce a changeover for the big storm on 1/31-2/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3KM NAM has a nasty dry slot in the middle of it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Chin up y’all, we’re gonna will this son of a bitch north. This next frame is like the 34th most important frame of our lives ETA. Looks like the bleeding south has stopped 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM. We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. It's a pretty thin and high up layer...so at least when it does mix its probably sleet/snow mix. That looks like several inches of snow and a significant sleet mixed in there also...which can be fun. It's better then a couple inches of snow and then dry slot or freezing rain imo. There is also the chance the NAM is being to aggressive with that but just saying I don't think the NAM is a complete disaster for DC but if it can be just 1 degree too warm in the mid layers...youre looking at a great THUMP. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Hour 51 ends up north of 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Second wave hair North at 10 pm compared to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It’s a slight bump but a bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2nd wave didn't quite touch Baltimore with precip at 18z, doing so this run. But the bigger change by far this run was wave 1; wave 2 looks like it will be very similar, only a little bit north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 am Friday also tick north compared to 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM. We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. Gotta live on the razor's edge if we want the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Almost surgical how the two phases barely overlap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 An inch of QPF DC south, I guess we have to consider that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 One thing is for sure, the euro did not pick up an ally in the NAM. Also, on 3km, 2nd wave through 48 isn't as expansive with precip even if the low is a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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