Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:16 AM, BTRWx said: Stealing eps from Mike Thomas's live stream That's not as bad as psu made it out to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:16 AM, baltimoreguy said: Weren’t you calling for 12 or 18” last weekend?Take what Roger says and reduce by 80 to 90% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I'm gonna hug the NAM with the Tecmo Bowl hail mary finger of faith. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:16 AM, baltimoreguy said: Weren’t you calling for 12 or 18” last weekend? Expand Nope, you're thinking of the earlier storm and like with models, error then does not imply error now. Sunday 7th snow potential was botched by just about everybody as I recall. All I'm saying is, suppression seems overdone on Euro, there isn't that much further push south with this Midwest high weakening and being pulled across to your north although obviously the fronts will sag some distance further south before settling for the wave to run along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:17 AM, Ji said: On 2/10/2021 at 1:16 AM, BTRWx said: Stealing eps from Mike Thomas's live stream Expand That's not as bad as psu made it out to be Expand He also showed 6 consecutive runs trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:12 AM, Roger Smith said: I feel somewhat more optimistic given that the cold high in Iowa is fading while the parent high, a monster 1062 mb center up in the NWT, is slowly pushing south. That should stop the southward push on the wave train and when I look at the RGEM output the precip shield looks realistic but the thickness and thermal profiles look unrealistic (too far north) which would argue for more of the depicted precip to fall as snow. Hence an early call of 4-7" for the I-95, max could be a bit south of the DC-BWI-ILG corridor at 5-9" but I don't think it would be pushed as far south as RIC. Expand Your always optimistic bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The Euro is by itself when it comes to QPF. Maybe it will steal a coup but every other model has much more juice than its currently showing. Taking a blend of all guidance is probably the best approach imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:21 AM, BTRWx said: He also showed 6 consecutive runs trending south.Maybe it's hit rock bottom like our lives. It has 48 hours to bounce back. Euro is usually the driest model anyway 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:16 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Stealing eps from Mike Thomas's live stream Expand That’s a very interesting map. It is showing 8-10” of snow in portions of Ky that don’t have a single flake of snow forecast for the next three days. That is very interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 In fact that map has 10” of snow in places that aren’t even being forecast to have any frozen at all. I don’t think the NWS forecasters down there have lost their minds. There is a reason that the euro is not being weighed into these forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:27 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a very interesting map. It is showing 8-10” of snow in portions of Ky that don’t have a single flake of snow forecast for the next three days. That is very interesting. Expand Stormvista's EPS maps are... interesting. Same map from WxBell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:31 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Stormvista's EPS maps are... interesting. Same map from WxBell. Expand Can you show me the map with Ky on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Sref anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:32 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you show me the map with Ky on it? Expand Pretty clear differences in snow algorithm. I'd lean WxBell's since it seems grounded in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:27 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a very interesting map. It is showing 8-10” of snow in portions of Ky that don’t have a single flake of snow forecast for the next three days. That is very interesting. Expand I think I’ve read somewhere that storm vista snow maps count everything falling at 32 and below snow so it catches a ton of sleet in those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:32 AM, Ji said: Sref anyone? Expand more north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 HRRR is looking fairly solid thru 29. 1” on the ground already for most of us at midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:33 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty clear differences in snow algorithm. I'd lean WxBell's since it seems grounded in reality. Expand That looks more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:34 AM, Baltimorewx said: HRRR is looking fairly solid thru 29. 1” on the ground already for most of us at midnight. Expand If it just wasn’t such a crap model. It’s ok about 6 hours out but after that ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:34 AM, NorthArlington101 said: more north.Well then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 We're going to will this SOB back 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:17 AM, Ji said: On 2/10/2021 at 1:16 AM, BTRWx said: Stealing eps from Mike Thomas's live stream Expand That's not as bad as psu made it out to be Expand This is a big reduction for 6 hours. But you really want to cry to back to a run 48 hours ago when it had 1” qpf up to the PA line and ~1.2 qpf for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:45 AM, psuhoffman said: This is a big reduction for 6 hours. But you really want to cry to back to a run 48 hours ago when it had 1” qpf up to the PA line and ~1.2 qpf for you. Expand You are placing a lot of faith in one model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:45 AM, psuhoffman said: This is a big reduction for 6 hours. But you really want to cry to back to a run 48 hours ago when it had 1” qpf up to the PA line and ~1.2 qpf for you. The euro took us from 36 inches to 6 inches 2 weeks ago. This ain't nothin bri 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:27 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a very interesting map. It is showing 8-10” of snow in portions of Ky that don’t have a single flake of snow forecast for the next three days. That is very interesting. Expand On 2/10/2021 at 1:29 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: In fact that map has 10” of snow in places that aren’t even being forecast to have any frozen at all. I don’t think the NWS forecasters down there have lost their minds. There is a reason that the euro is not being weighed into these forecasts. Expand I have deduced that those stormvista max res EPS snowfall maps are often so much higher then wxbell on the southern edge of snowfall zones is because it counts freezing rain as 10-1 snowfall. People didn't notice but last year the wxbell maps stopped doing that when they updated and that is why the ensemble means on wxbell arent as crazy stupid ridiculous high as they used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:34 AM, NorthArlington101 said: more north. Expand It’s a wetter run to our west in a major way. The entire precip shield is more north as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:49 AM, psuhoffman said: I have deduced that those stormvista max res EPS snowfall maps are often so much higher then wxbell on the southern edge of snowfall zones is because it counts freezing rain as 10-1 snowfall. People didn't notice but last year the wxbell maps stopped doing that when they updated and that is why the ensemble means on wxbell arent as crazy stupid ridiculous high as they used to be. Expand That has to be the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Every model combined has snow as far south as the NC border and as far North as the Pennsylvania border....those are your edges....now we refine down to the details tomorrow clearly somewhere between there it will snow decently perhaps a lot of places between those edges 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 1:48 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: You are placing a lot of faith in one model Expand huh? When did I make any prediction? There was a post that the EPS was less suppressive. I made the observation that it trended south with both waves. It did. Someone kind of questioned that so I posted proof. I made no prediction at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It’s early and subtle but through 21, Nam is less suppressive than 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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