CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yeah its the SREF, but if this ends up close to reality who would be unhappy? (other than Ji and psu) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My take is when it looks iffy, see what the pros think. There are great minds here, but people like those at HPC are trained professionals with experience forecasting winter weather. Their interpretation of models and data carries more weight. Period. And they obviously are not on the Euro train. Yes and they seem to be much more bullish than we are tbh. It's a guiding light for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: PSU wins again Some QPF love for PSUland! The new name for our beloved Carroll county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yeah its the SREF, but if this ends up close to reality who would be unhappy? (other than Ji and psu) DT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. As usual you are the voice of reason! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. I listen to you like gospel, my friend. You’re one of the few folks who are extremely well versed in understanding potential reality v. Verbatim model depictions via your deep knowledge of setups, climo, past analogs, etc. I agree 100%. Anybody within 50-75 miles of the depicted snow Max should definitely not be writing this off. Especially folks in areas such as MoCo, HoCo, NoVA, over toward Baltimore city. How many times do we need to see storms shift in real time before we stop getting burned by kuchera snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah its the SREF, but if this ends up close to reality who would be unhappy? (other than Ji and psu) arnt srefs usuallly much wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, snowfan said: That's more like it. *Frederick based chef's kiss* 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, jayyy said: I listen to you like gospel, my friend. You’re one of the few folks who are extremely well versed in understanding potential reality v. Verbatim model depictions via your deep knowledge of setups, climo, past analogs, etc. I agree 100%. Anybody within 50-75 miles of the depicted snow Max should definitely not be writing this off. Especially folks in areas such as MoCo, HoCo, NoVA, over toward Baltimore city. How many times do we need to see storms shift in real time before we stop getting burned by kuchera snow maps The unfortunate part about the transition to the mid range to the short range is people's nerves are already fried. They've seen a million looks and reacted differently to all of them. Just because we're in the short range now doesn't mean it's all figured out. It's never all figured out like that. I like what wxusaf said and practice the same. Grab the set of models that you feel have the best handle (sometimes it's all of them) and then just blend them. Adjust what you know may be likely incorrect or just less likely to happen. If 4 models are all south and 1 model is jacking your yard, don't expect to get jacked. If the entire suite is shotgunned within a defined range (like right now), SOMEONE is prob getting jacked nearby. Might be you, might be someone else but you're in the game. I never understood why people simply latch onto the absolute most cherry picked set of runs/models and then lose it every time something shows something worse. Mid to short range ALWAYS has a series of overdone solutions. You can set your watch to it. I treat that set as max potential not a bar but that's just me. ETA: one more thing... this whole setup is NOT a prolific QPF producer nor a super heavy snow dumper. 1.2" of qpf as snow is A LOT OF QPF. Usually reserved for a sub 1000mb low off the coast situation. That's not what's going on here. We're benefitting from a 1-2 punch but a big shellacking storm this is not. Never once thought it was and definitely not expecting double digit snowfall. It's possible but not widespread imo unless it hits on all cylinders. Which happens like once every 5 years. 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time. We should all read this post 10 times so it sinks in. A couple tenths of an inch of precip one way or the other or 100 miles in the general track of the low pressure is noise. Of course that noise is deafening when it takes away 6 inches of digital snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said: That's a pretty bullish forecast from NBC12 in Richmond. It lines up with pretty much every model except for the GFS and maybe a 1 or 2 other outliers. Looks like a solid call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It lines up with pretty much every model except for the GFS and maybe a 1 or 2 other outliers. Looks like a solid call. 5-10 plus into DC? Not quite there yet for my thinking, but I'd be MORE than happy with this outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerichohill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 LWX really seems to be bearish on the Euro's take. Seems like they're mostly blending the GFS, UKMET and CMC for this one, with a bias towards the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: What is our best shot of significant snow? This event, weekend event, or early next week event? roll the dice. this one has a light/mod feel to it. not a ton of moisture. the weekend system doesn't quite have a high in the right spot, imo (though not off by much). the one next week looks like it has a chance, but it's just simply too early to know. the only trend i'm seeing is that each storm seems to have more moisture to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: 5-10 plus into DC? Not quite there yet for my thinking, but I'd be MORE than happy with this outcome. Map stopped at Fredericksburg looks like as most northern point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 One of our local mets two cents: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Can’t post it because I’m on my phone, but 3k NAM soundings look much better in central MD vs 12z, particularly for Thursday morning. Saturated DGZ with good upward motion. If the NAM is right for central MD, would imply wave 1 ends as nice fluff. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Short Pump isn't getting 0.6 1 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I guess the 18z Euro could shed some light on this. Or make it more confusing. 18z Euro folks, you know what to do when the time comes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I guess the 18z Euro could shed some light on this. Or make it more confusing. 18z Euro folks, you know what to do when the time comes North trend for rd 2. Let's do This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: North trend for rd 2. Let's do This! Not too far north. Let’s pick a central location like western PWC. Put that as ground zero and fan out from there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Not too far north. Let’s pick a central location like western PWC. Put that as ground zero and fan out from there. I like our spot for this one. I like 6-10 for PWC. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wow LWX is bullish. After how the NAM has performed the last couple storms, I'm actually keeping close watch on the NAM this storm. It's not great for my backyard, at least the 12km, very focused on Virginia... which makes me think it's probably going to verify, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I guess the 18z Euro could shed some light on this. Or make it more confusing. 18z Euro folks, you know what to do when the time comes Is this the time for me to say I’ll bet the euro sucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Is this the time for me to say I’ll bet the euro sucks? Yes. And it probably will. 18z tends to go off the rails like the 6z NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: I used to live up in Herndon and spent some time in Fairfax. The main thread was fun to follow then because everyone lived within a 30 mile radius of each other. Now that I’m down here, I giggle when we get more snow than them. I laugh maniacally when Leesburg gets shut out. From our southern friends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I like our spot for this one. I like 6-10 for PWC. Temps my friend. We need temps below freezing. Ideally 28-30. It’s plagued us forever. Sunday was epic snow tv and was gone by 3pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: From our southern friends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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