baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Have an image? I’m stuck working in the midst of the organized chaos that is the Apple store! Thx in advance! Snowfan's got you on the QPF, here's the kuchera and 10:1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 WxBell's ICON clown map. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ok who wants to jump on the RGEM train again? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Not to burst any bubbles and I know no two systems are exactly alike and also better to have something in our corner, but didn’t the RGEM still spit out ridiculous amounts here for 1/31-2/1 after the varsity level models started cutting back? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: it's also substantially better with the 2nd wave. Probably not worth much because well yunno (it's the icon), but this looks pretty significant. Yes nice to see but damn that precip cutoff from south Baltimore to the PA line lol...gona be tough to trust the modeling on the heavier precip cutoff areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I’ve never seen the icon ever put that much snow over the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Snowfan's got you on the QPF, here's the kuchera and 10:1 Thanks bud! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok who wants to jump on the RGEM train again? Totally didn't give Baltimore 30 inches shortly before our 31st-33rd storm. Nope. Didn't happen. Slanderous. In all seriousness though, my optimistic side tells me there's at least a little something to this. Like I said earlier, NAM has shifted north the past 24 hours in some respects, it's just gotten drier too. HRRR at 18z went north and so did the ICON, and now the RGEM. HRRR looks like north but no more or less dry, while the ICON and RGEM are more what could happen if it goes north and reclaims some of that QPF we've been losing. GFS run will be very interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Yes nice to see but damn that precip cutoff from south Baltimore to the PA line lol...gona be tough to trust the modeling on the heavier precip cutoff areas Because those cutoffs ever verify as depicted. No worries - it’ll be 30 miles north at least. It always is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok who wants to jump on the RGEM train again? I mean, it’s not the 40 inches @stormtracker was hoping for but it’s acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, baltosquid said: Totally didn't give Baltimore 30 inches shortly before our 31st-33rd storm. Nope. Didn't happen. Slanderous. In all seriousness though, my optimistic side tells me there's at least a little something to this. Like I said earlier, NAM has shifted north the past 24 hours in some respects, it's just gotten drier too. HRRR at 18z went north and so did the ICON, and now the RGEM. HRRR looks like north but no more or less dry, while the ICON and RGEM are more what could happen if it goes north and reclaims some of that QPF we've been losing. GFS run will be very interesting. Hoping to see the GFS / UKMET both come in the same as 12z on their next runs. They’ve been the most consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Not to burst any bubbles and I know no two systems are exactly alike and also better to have something in our corner, but didn’t the RGEM still spit out ridiculous amounts here for 1/31-2/1 after the varsity level models started cutting back? Yes but it also held firm to better totals for 2/5 when DC got totally shafted. I think the take home message is that riding the RGEM is a one way ticket to disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Really wish the RGEM was rolled out on TT. Anyway, I'm feeling more optimistic, not just because of slight northern ticks in recent modeling, but also because wave one is just looking better. If we could just get something here I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yes but it also held firm to better totals for 2/5 when DC got totally shafted. I think the take home message is that riding the RGEM is a one way ticket to disappointment. I think it’s the cold bias. For example, it’ll depict 0.6” of QPF as all snow with decent ratios, when in reality it’s more like 0.4” of 10:1 ratio or less snow and some potential mixing. It doesn’t do very well depicting mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Really wish the RGEM was rolled out on TT. Anyway, I'm feeling more optimistic, not just because of slight northern ticks in recent modeling, but also because wave one is just looking better. If we could just get something here I'll be happy. Yeah, that's just about my take from the 18z suite so far. Yesterday the prevalent trends were that the initial wave was looking substantially weaker, but also at the same time then the secondary wave wasn't a sure thing. We're pretty certain that wave two will paint a stripe of snow somewhere, I guess it just comes down to if those waves overlap each other in location or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: I think it’s the cold bias. For example, it’ll depict 0.6” of QPF as all snow with decent ratios, when in reality it’s more like 0.4” of 10:1 ratio or less snow and some potential mixing. It doesn’t do very well depicting mid levels Agreed, which is interesting for its range but whatever. I'm not quite as optimistic as you but I'm not close to the ledge here. Think there are plenty of ways we can win here still. Most of them have to do with the modeling just being straight trash this year. In fact sometimes I wonder if it's only gotten worse recently, or if I've just become more critical in my curmudgeonly early 30s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem usually is drier then alot of guidance in my memories except for the recent Hecs misstep. Right idea- just 150 miles too sw . I like that it moistened up . Good HH trends imo Agree. Think things actually look a bit better overall for our immediate area despite the painful verbatim depiction of the sharp cutoff seen on OP runs. Just give me a better look - and let climo and seasonal trends take care of the rest GFS/Ukmet/Para/GEFS/ICON/Rgem/RDPS all bring 0.5”+ QPF to our area. That’s a solid event for us with temps in the upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 It almost always happens this way, Ji throws his tantrums and then the next model runs show improvement. It's like magic 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It almost always happens this way, Ji throws his tantrums and then the next model runs show improvement. It's like magic It’s like the snow gods purposely bring l storms back north just so Ji can watch everyone around him do better than he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, baltosquid said: NAM 3km has a healthier precip shield for wave 2. Yeah, kinda makes me feel like 10% better 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok who wants to jump on the RGEM train again? No. Nooooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Not to burst any bubbles and I know no two systems are exactly alike and also better to have something in our corner, but didn’t the RGEM still spit out ridiculous amounts here for 1/31-2/1 after the varsity level models started cutting back? 37 inches....just a little off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This thing has slowed a good bit also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, snowfan said: I mean, it’s not the 40 inches @stormtracker was hoping for but it’s acceptable. 12" is his limit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. 10% chance of 4".. lock it up! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros. Could be with the first wave at least included? But yeah definitely a good sign. Their disco guidance has seemed impervious to the south trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Yeoman said: 10% chance of 4".. lock it up! I'll take it, better than 0 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Could be with the first wave at least included? But yeah definitely a good sign. Their disco guidance has seemed impervious to the south trends. No that's for 00z Fri through 00z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: 10% chance of 4".. lock it up! When I first saw this, I thought sweet that’s the 4-8 inch/heavy snow potential drawing! I’ll show myself out with the hot dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS weak and tainted with the first wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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