WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:31 PM, stormtracker said: Quite frustrating. No verdict yet tho...again 0z is the benchmark Expand Today or Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:38 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Today or Friday? Expand for wave 1 tonight. wave 2, prob tomm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:38 PM, stormtracker said: It really is quite bad, and I'm the most optimistic, half glass full person here. I still think it may be doing too much, but the trend south today can't be denied. Expand Yeah I agree. Definitely trending away from anything significant for us. At least it still *should* snow though and at least *some* of the snow *should* fall at temps resembling an actual winter storm. Notice all my qualifiers hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:36 PM, midatlanticweather said: NAM almost has the nightmare scenario ! Too far south for wave 1 and too far north for wave 2! Expand i talked about this fail scenario but didnt really believe it would happen. I cant belive it happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Thing is if you wish for the first wave to be juiced up it might miss north. And the second wave looks pretty much gone to me for anyone north of DC. This could easily end up with both missing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Seriously, what would you normally think? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:37 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Personally I’ll take the low position of the second wave. Think it might surprise with a north trend if it turns out like that. Expand 100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. A low that rides into southern VA barely getting precip north of the VA MD border? Seems odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I’m not afraid of a juiced up first wave. And I’m not sold on that second one just sliding off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:43 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Seriously, what would you normally think? Expand its amazing how it just stops on our door step. Just amazing. I mean amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:44 PM, jayyy said: 100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. Expand Then we are in agreement. This is probably all a waste of time. I put no faith in the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:44 PM, jayyy said: 100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. A low that rides into southern VA barely getting precip north of the VA MD border? Seems odd Expand We've been down this road in past winters. I am NOT making a prediction for how it goes this time, but what you are describing is NOT odd. A weak disturbance hitting a wall of colder air that dries out QPF on the northern edges is very familiar. Happens plenty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:46 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Then we are in agreement. This is probably all a waste of time. I put no faith in the NAM Expand I really like a blend of what the GFS/UKMET depicted at 12z for the area. A foot of snow? No. But a solid 4-6+ for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:46 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Then we are in agreement. This is probably all a waste of time. I put no faith in the NAM Expand I wouldn't either if the Euro hadn't consistently been losing precip on the northern edge over the last 24 hours...and hadn't lost a ton of its total juice at 12z today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Come on GFS to make us feel a bit better.. then the EURO for the real better feel. NEED THAT NORTH TREND.. on Wave 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:48 PM, mattie g said: I wouldn't either if the Euro hadn't consistently been losing precip on the northern edge over the last 24 hours...and hadn't lost a ton of its total juice at 12z today. Expand In my experience the euro can run dry but sometimes will come in with more precip at game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:47 PM, North Balti Zen said: We've been down this road in past winters. I am NOT making a prediction for how it goes this time, but what you are describing is NOT odd. A weak disturbance hitting a wall of colder air that dries out QPF on the northern edges is very familiar. Happens plenty. Expand I don’t disagree about the northern cutoff and dry air eating away at precip. I just don’t see it being that far south. I can see me, ClSkins, and PSU getting fringed hard, Baltimore getting a bit over 0.5” in QPF, with more further south. Guess it’s possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Silver lining is that wave 2 is still 48+ hours away. NAM jackpotted Richmond 12 hours ago and North Carolina 12 hours before that, now the best strip of snow is halfway between Richmond and DC and broader, too. I don't consider there to be a good chance of this, but it could come north/get a bit less fringy with QPF in 48 hours. Just gotta keep watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:51 PM, baltosquid said: Silver lining is that wave 2 is still 48+ hours away. NAM jackpotted Richmond 24 hours ago and North Carolina 12 hours before that, now the best strip of snow is halfway between Richmond and DC and broader, too. I don't consider there to be a good chance of this, but it could come north/get a bit less fringy with QPF in 48 hours. Just gotta keep watching. Expand If Models aren’t agreeing on some key elements of wave 1... how can they possibly be nailing wave 2? Agree. Think it’s going to be a wait and see situation. We may not know what’s coming with round 2 until round 1 has passed us by. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Para is back in action with a general 5-8 across the region 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Alright, let’s get another solid GFS run in here at 18z to bring us back from the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:51 PM, jayyy said: I don’t disagree about the northern cutoff and dry air eating away at precip. I just don’t see it being that far south. I can see me, ClSkins, and PSU getting fringed hard, Baltimore getting a bit over 0.5” in QPF, with more further south. Guess it’s possible though. Expand Clskins is a bit south of Baltimore. Doesn't matter though...he's getting fringed anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:48 PM, midatlanticweather said: Come on GFS to make us feel a bit better.. then the EURO for the real better feel. NEED THAT NORTH TREND.. on Wave 2 Expand I agree. Still time (not a lot) for some models to push this North and the vibe can flip in this forum this evening. Glass half full. Or if my unicorn thinking happens. Make that a full glass please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:55 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: Clskins is well south of Baltimore. Doesn't matter though...he's getting fringed anyway. Expand Since when is Winchester well south of Baltimore. It’s almost the same exact latitude as Columbia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 FWIW, HRRR came north with the best QPF at 18z for wave 1. A tenth better for pretty much all of MD and more so for DC. Edit: Eastern shore does much worse though. Nevermind, was contaminated with older QPF. Eastern shore is mostly the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:57 PM, jayyy said: Since when is Winchester well south of Baltimore. It’s almost the same exact latitude as Columbia Expand Yeah, I should not have said well south....but it is south by a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:58 PM, MN Transplant said: Something might fall from the sky. Expand Just bumping this to manage my own expectations. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:44 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m not afraid of a juiced up first wave. And I’m not sold on that second one just sliding off the coast. Expand Some serious disagreement going on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ICON looks decent with wave 1 from what I can tell .5 precip around DC and close to Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 RGEM already with over a half inch of QPF by 42 for @WxUSAF 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 8:29 PM, high risk said: This is 2 cycles in a row that it has shown this. Being at night will help overcome it a good deal, but it's weird to see the NAM be the warmest model so far for the event.The icon is warmish also . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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