North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: 100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. A low that rides into southern VA barely getting precip north of the VA MD border? Seems odd We've been down this road in past winters. I am NOT making a prediction for how it goes this time, but what you are describing is NOT odd. A weak disturbance hitting a wall of colder air that dries out QPF on the northern edges is very familiar. Happens plenty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Then we are in agreement. This is probably all a waste of time. I put no faith in the NAM I really like a blend of what the GFS/UKMET depicted at 12z for the area. A foot of snow? No. But a solid 4-6+ for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Then we are in agreement. This is probably all a waste of time. I put no faith in the NAM I wouldn't either if the Euro hadn't consistently been losing precip on the northern edge over the last 24 hours...and hadn't lost a ton of its total juice at 12z today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Come on GFS to make us feel a bit better.. then the EURO for the real better feel. NEED THAT NORTH TREND.. on Wave 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: I wouldn't either if the Euro hadn't consistently been losing precip on the northern edge over the last 24 hours...and hadn't lost a ton of its total juice at 12z today. In my experience the euro can run dry but sometimes will come in with more precip at game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: We've been down this road in past winters. I am NOT making a prediction for how it goes this time, but what you are describing is NOT odd. A weak disturbance hitting a wall of colder air that dries out QPF on the northern edges is very familiar. Happens plenty. I don’t disagree about the northern cutoff and dry air eating away at precip. I just don’t see it being that far south. I can see me, ClSkins, and PSU getting fringed hard, Baltimore getting a bit over 0.5” in QPF, with more further south. Guess it’s possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Silver lining is that wave 2 is still 48+ hours away. NAM jackpotted Richmond 12 hours ago and North Carolina 12 hours before that, now the best strip of snow is halfway between Richmond and DC and broader, too. I don't consider there to be a good chance of this, but it could come north/get a bit less fringy with QPF in 48 hours. Just gotta keep watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, baltosquid said: Silver lining is that wave 2 is still 48+ hours away. NAM jackpotted Richmond 24 hours ago and North Carolina 12 hours before that, now the best strip of snow is halfway between Richmond and DC and broader, too. I don't consider there to be a good chance of this, but it could come north/get a bit less fringy with QPF in 48 hours. Just gotta keep watching. If Models aren’t agreeing on some key elements of wave 1... how can they possibly be nailing wave 2? Agree. Think it’s going to be a wait and see situation. We may not know what’s coming with round 2 until round 1 has passed us by. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Para is back in action with a general 5-8 across the region 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Alright, let’s get another solid GFS run in here at 18z to bring us back from the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: I don’t disagree about the northern cutoff and dry air eating away at precip. I just don’t see it being that far south. I can see me, ClSkins, and PSU getting fringed hard, Baltimore getting a bit over 0.5” in QPF, with more further south. Guess it’s possible though. Clskins is a bit south of Baltimore. Doesn't matter though...he's getting fringed anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Come on GFS to make us feel a bit better.. then the EURO for the real better feel. NEED THAT NORTH TREND.. on Wave 2 I agree. Still time (not a lot) for some models to push this North and the vibe can flip in this forum this evening. Glass half full. Or if my unicorn thinking happens. Make that a full glass please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Clskins is well south of Baltimore. Doesn't matter though...he's getting fringed anyway. Since when is Winchester well south of Baltimore. It’s almost the same exact latitude as Columbia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 FWIW, HRRR came north with the best QPF at 18z for wave 1. A tenth better for pretty much all of MD and more so for DC. Edit: Eastern shore does much worse though. Nevermind, was contaminated with older QPF. Eastern shore is mostly the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Since when is Winchester well south of Baltimore. It’s almost the same exact latitude as Columbia Yeah, I should not have said well south....but it is south by a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 11:58 AM, MN Transplant said: Something might fall from the sky. Just bumping this to manage my own expectations. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m not afraid of a juiced up first wave. And I’m not sold on that second one just sliding off the coast. Some serious disagreement going on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ICON looks decent with wave 1 from what I can tell .5 precip around DC and close to Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 RGEM already with over a half inch of QPF by 42 for @WxUSAF 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This is 2 cycles in a row that it has shown this. Being at night will help overcome it a good deal, but it's weird to see the NAM be the warmest model so far for the event.The icon is warmish also . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 RGEM is fine for wave 1 north of 50/66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 RGEM with 5-6 inches around BMore for Wave 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: RGEM already with over a half inch of QPF by 23 for @WxUSAF This is what I’m saying. Central MD between DC/BAL is still a huge unknown IMO. Models vary from 0.3” to 0.8” in QPF. HUGE difference. 0z should hopefully bring a bit more clarify with some better sampling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: The icon is warmish also . 18z icon doesnt look warm to me...upper 20s to around 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Almost no one in the subforum below 0.4 QPF on the RGEM. Can only see a couple spots in the MD panhandle and one in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: 18z icon doesnt look warm to me...upper 20s to around 30 it's also substantially better with the 2nd wave. Probably not worth much because well yunno (it's the icon), but this looks pretty significant. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, baltosquid said: Almost no one in the subforum below 0.4 QPF on the RGEM. Can only see a couple spots in the MD panhandle and one in WV. Have an image? I’m stuck working in the midst of the organized chaos that is the Apple store! Thx in advance! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 We've been watching trends for the past 24 hours and the RGEM is going to save the day? This is the third sequel of this movie and it seems to always end the same. Just sayin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: ICON and RDPS definitely shine a light on what I think is the biggest question mark. Central MD. Just the slightest difference brings much more significant precip to their doorstep. Going to be real close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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