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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1.

      This is 2 cycles in a row that it has shown this.    Being at night will help overcome it a good deal, but it's weird to see the NAM be the warmest model so far for the event.

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

yup.  looks like another shove south.  I dunno.  Trending to less for part 2, more for part 1

48+ hours out from this part of the storm - heaviest snow 50 miles south.... sounds like exactly where we want to be right now honestly. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

It really is quite bad, and I'm the most optimistic, half glass full person here.  I still think it may be doing too much, but the trend south today can't be denied. 

Yeah I agree.  Definitely trending away from anything significant for us.  At least it still *should* snow though and at least *some* of the snow *should* fall at temps resembling an actual winter storm.  Notice all my qualifiers hahaha. 

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5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

NAM almost has the nightmare scenario ! Too far south for wave 1 and too far north for wave 2!

 

i talked about this fail scenario but didnt really believe it would happen. I cant belive it happened

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Personally I’ll take the low position of the second wave. Think it might surprise with a north trend if it turns out like that.

100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. A low that rides into southern VA barely getting precip north of the VA MD border? Seems odd

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Just now, jayyy said:

100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. 

Then we are in agreement. This is probably all a waste of time. I put no faith in the NAM

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