baltosquid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, midatlanticweather said: If my memory serves me (and it may not) waves like this are usually 3 to 5 inch events (higher in the higher spots).. So we get two, which would net 6 to 10 inches (maybe?).. I would think. A long while ago in the early 90s (yep..) I remember tracking one of something like this and it was a 3 to 6 inch event .. I was an intern at the Climate Analysis Center at the time... but it quickly moved through. So two, seems like a double of the same thing. On to the model analysis! Jackpot of 10 seems pretty reasonable if you get something like the euro. Gut says somewhere in the latitudes between DC and Baltimore gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 48 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Kinda poops out when it gets up to us tho. Don't care..main takeway is it caved hard. plowable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 RGEM looks better for the 2nd wave FWIW. Seems like that's been the most notable thing from the 18z suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: plowable? If you're serious, yes. If if this is a double entendre, still yes. 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: RGEM looks better for the 2nd wave FWIW. Seems like that's been the most notable thing from the 18z suite so far. Looks like it runs south, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Jackpot of 10 seems pretty reasonable if you get something like the euro. Gut says somewhere in the latitudes between DC and Baltimore gets it. This doesn't seem like a particularly juicy setup to me. If there are in fact 2 waves that hit the same area, then yeah maybe there will be some 8" amounts. Cant say I can recall seeing this happen before in a configuration like this(and be all snow), but certainly not impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Looks like it runs south, no? Ptype panels arent out yet on TT, but it looks like it's NW compared to 12z. Gets the immediate area into some precip at 84 but the run ends right there. Comparing hr 84 to 78 on 12z shows how the axis has shifted NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Looks like it runs south, no? For the second wave? NO. It's Euro like with more to come it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Ptype panels arent out yet on TT, but it looks like it's NW compared to 12z. Gets the immediate area into some precip at 84 but the run ends right there. Comparing hr 84 to 78 on 12z shows how the axis has shifted NW. I saw this and verbatim it looks to favor the southern areas. But you’re right that it is north of its prior run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If you're serious, yes. If if this is a double entendre, still yes. “Plowable” ?.... I can barely make it holding the shovel. As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS coming in drier, a tad south perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: If my memory serves me (and it may not) waves like this are usually 3 to 5 inch events (higher in the higher spots).. So we get two, which would net 6 to 10 inches (maybe?).. I would think. A long while ago in the early 90s (yep..) I remember tracking one of something like this and it was a 3 to 6 inch event .. I was an intern at the Climate Analysis Center at the time... but it quickly moved through. So two, seems like a double of the same thing. On to the model analysis! I remember a very similar situation in February 1996 if that’s what you’re referring to. I think @psuhoffman may have already mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, baltosquid said: GFS coming in drier, a tad south perhaps. Ji needs this trend to stop immediately. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Somebody will like the appendage on the 18z GFS. Not me, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Somebody will like the appendage on the 18z GFS. Not me, though. Me neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ji needs this trend to stop immediately. am i missing something> the 18z seemed to improve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Me neither. Need more qpf out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That's another trend south with the fringe for the GFS, so while it may not be a good run for those SE of I95, maybe the next one will be? Edit: Was mistaken, thinking about the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Me neither. It is a nice run for our northern neighbors. The really good news from today has been the complete elimination of the concept of the 850s blasting north. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Ji said: am i missing something> the 18z seemed to improve. It was initially drier as it moved through the Ohio valley. Then it juiced up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 WB 18Z GFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Too sleety here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The lack of juice is a little meh. Over that long a timeframe it won't get the job done around metro areas. But big improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: The lack of juice is a little meh. Over that long a timeframe it won't get the job done around metro areas. But big improvement. With temps under 30 it would. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Some of the precip in PA is from tonight/tomorrow. Otherwise, getting better. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That’s a hell of a precip gradient this run. Stupid dry for the beltways and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: The lack of juice is a little meh. Over that long a timeframe it won't get the job done around metro areas. But big improvement. Lol! Def would if the gfs depiction comes to fruition. EC/Canadian/rgem have temps in the mid 20s in the metro on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, DDweatherman said: With temps under 30 it would. The temps won't be the issue this time. We wouldn't get under the bands necessary to get to those levels. In reality it would be spotty and riddled with subsidence. But it's just one run of one model that improved toward better guidance so I don't want to act like I'm bummed about it or anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, H2O said: That’s a hell of a precip gradient this run. Stupid dry for the beltways and east Not for the Baltimore beltway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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