yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 LWX afternoon disco re threat .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Canadian high pressure will build toward the north Tuesday night, and this will allow for dry conditions to continue. However, it will turn out chillier again with a northerly flow ahead of the building high. The pattern turns active with an increased threat for wintry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. Shortwave and jetmax energy in the in the southern stream of the jet will be passing through the area in the nearly zonal flow aloft. However, southern stream moisture should get drawn into the area during this time. This setup combined with the fact that Canadian high pressure will remain entrenched to our north supports the increased threat for wintry weather. Have leaned a little toward the models with the colder solutions given the fact that the cold high pressure will be nearby. This suggests that a bulk of the wintry precipitation may fall as snow along with the potential for significant snowfall accumulations. However, mixed precipitation is still possible and ice accumulations from freezing rain are possible as well, and some guidance does still show more of a mixed p-type event. Will continue to monitor the latest trends, but the biggest story is that wintry precipitation is likely and significant wintry precipitation is possible and it would likely impact the Wednesday evening commute and also into Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An area of high pressure will linger and remained wedged along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians Thursday and Thursday night. This will allow for accumulating snow to continue across the northern half of our CWA and accumulating mixed precipitation of sleet, freezing rain, and rain across the southern half of our CWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nam will nudge South looking at HR48. Wave a little flatter and confluence a bit better in the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thanks and the extreme cold has been pushed back. Delayed but not denied is generally a disaster for snow but not as much for very cold surges although it’s a neutral sign at best. Looks like rollover cold also where it plunges into Ohio Valley and west and then rolls over mountains and onto us in a modified state as opposed to strong cold which plunges directly down upon us from NY State and PA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Acceptable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 44 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: How do people still take him seriously? Honestly I’m not bashing him but he is so irresponsibly early/bullish with his calls. Every. Single. Time. His record is appalling if you take him for his word 3-5 days out. He deserves credit because he is the best discusser I know of as to what the combined elements of a big snowstorm need to be for our area. He is considerably less skilled in prediction of what an upcoming system will turn out to be and produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Thanks and the extreme cold has been pushed back. Delayed but not denied is generally a disaster for snow but not as much for very cold surges although it’s a neutral sign at best. Looks like rollover cold also where it plunges into Ohio Valley and west and then rolls over mountains and onto us in a modified state as opposed to strong cold which plunges directly down upon us from NY State and PA . Pushed back? While not extreme the cold pattern is basically starting in a couple days and the overrunning storm signifies the start of a long colder than normal period. TWC doesn't have me getting out of the upper 20s/low 30s for at least a week with snow in the forecast almost every day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 it lost its disaster look 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The NAM folding to the Euro past tau 48 is literally the least surprising development ever. 13 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z NAM def looking a bit more like teh 12z EURO to me once you get to 60 and 63 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yup..NAM coming back to reality. It's a complete fold to the Euro 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Goal posts are narrowing quite nicely here, not a lot of disagreement at this point. GFS on the northern end and Euro on the southern with the ICON, CMC, and UKMET in the middle. This is what I like to see in the lead up to an event. Obviously we all know anything could happen but my confidence is gradually increasing that this event is real and we will get a moderate snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Whew. Nice to see the NAM cave. 0.3”-0.5” across most of the area with the first wave. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, joecacti said: pics or it didn't happen 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Even the way the precip is oriented looks like the Euro at 78 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Meh... second wave sorta shears out... finish with some light snow at 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Kinda poops out when it gets up to us tho. Don't care..main takeway is it caved hard. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Kinda poops out when it gets up to us tho. Don't care..main takeway is it caved hard. If the low end is 3” of uncomplicated snow, that’s good news. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Kinda poops out when it gets up to us tho. Don't care..main takeway is it caved hard. Like the roads on Wednesday night! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: He deserves credit because he is the best discusser I know of as to what the combined elements of a big snowstorm need to be for our area. He is considerably less skilled in prediction of what an upcoming system will turn out to be and produce. Before I found this forum, I followed DT through several winters. In 2013-2015, he was actually pretty darn accurate much of the time. His videos are actually quite educational for those of us who don’t know all the science of meteorology. I know he has some biases and can get annoying, but his posts are generally informative for the general public. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: I find this graphic best for showing the "monster" potential. DC-south (really I-81) has the best shot right now if you believe the ens. 19% chance for me!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Kinda poops out when it gets up to us tho. Don't care..main takeway is it caved hard.At some point in the next 2 days it will have a solid blue over us on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Have 30 seconds to kill. Nothing to add. All covered. My concern right now is now that some models are spitting out maybe a foot or so, now anything less than 12" is an epic meltdown disaster. Amirite? AMIRITE?!?! 4 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I did want to add something serious. Every single time models have tossed around the idea of a long drawn out event with even steven rates/distribution etc over 48 hours or more... It NEVER ends up working out like that. One of these 2 waves will be dominant and the other may be a letdown. Just going off memory. Everyone knows what I'm rooting for and it still includes a foot of ice. ETA: I suppose one difference here is SLP is weak sauce. Not the same as a 1-2 punch where there's a "wake" left behind or the exiting system does weird things over the Atl and screws up the approach of the second. This whole thing is pretty unusual. I can't really think of any event similar in the last 15 years. May be "ok" to expect anomalous results. Good times. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I did want to add something serious. Every single time models have tossed around the idea of a long drawn out event with even steven rates/distribution etc over 48 hours or more... It NEVER ends up working out like that. One of these 2 waves will be dominant and the other may be a letdown. Just going off memory. Everyone knows what I'm rooting for and it still includes a foot of ice. Seems like guidance is moving to this. Wave 1 has trended drier/weaker across the board with wave 2 looking like it has a bit more potential. I was actually thinking about you and how this setup seems awfully familiar to the Chill storm 2 years ago. Obviously not the same look at h500 but a similar progression with the storm starting off with cold smoke overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Going back through some cerebral cobwebs... didn’t Jan 95 have a west to east oriented weak system in a decent airmass that put 3 or 4 inches down in DC and Baltimore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The ICON looks great to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I did want to add something serious. Every single time models have tossed around the idea of a long drawn out event with even steven rates/distribution etc over 48 hours or more... It NEVER ends up working out like that. One of these 2 waves will be dominant and the other may be a letdown. Just going off memory. Everyone knows what I'm rooting for and it still includes a foot of ice. Well, I think it might end up being more distinctly 2 waves with a gap in the middle. Even if the gap is only ~12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 JMA looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Seems like guidance is moving to this. Wave 1 has trended drier/weaker across the board with wave 2 looking like it has a bit more potential. I was actually thinking about you and how this setup seems awfully familiar to the Chill storm 2 years ago. Obviously not the same look at h500 but a similar progression with the storm starting off with cold smoke overrunning. ICON follows this idea. Overall .2-.4" from wave 2 compared to maybe like .1-.2" for the general DC area from 12z, but less with the overrunning. Still favorable trends for sure. 0.6"+ QPF from DC southwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 ICON really loses a lot of the precip from the previous run. Once you get north of DC, you go from 0.5, to 0.4, to 0.3 in Baltimore, and less and less as you keep going. Still a good run to have at this stage if you expect a north shift and aren't looking too deeply at rates quite yet. But dryness is still my biggest worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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